I’m searching for the best FTSE 100 recovery shares to buy for next year. And Burberry Group (LSE:BRBY) is near the top of my list after its recent share price collapse.
Should I buy it for my portfolio? Here’s my view.
On the rack
I take Warren Buffett‘s advice to “never invest in a business you cannot understand” extremely seriously. It’s why I’ve never previously considered buying Burberry shares for my portfolio.
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It might be my age, or because I don’t understand fashion. Regardless, I don’t know what makes its products better or worse than other luxury brands. I know it’s famous for raincoats and its distinctive check pattern, but that’s it.
However, the sharp fall in its share price this year has made me take notice. At 601p per share, Burberry’s price has crumbled by two-thirds during the past 12 months.
As I say, I’m not the guy to talk to for fashion tips. But I know what a company in distress looks like. And the red lights are flashing here.
Burberry — which is due to lose its prestigious FTSE 100 listing next week — reported a 22% sales slump in its latest financials covering April to June.
It’s also facing large costs as it revamps its stores, and has suspended the dividend to ease the pressure on its balance sheet.
Troubles run deep
Like other luxury brands, the firm is suffering as wealthy customers tighten their wallets in response to the uncertain economic environment. Even this formerly robust end of the retail market has suffered in the current climate.
Names including LVMH, Kering and Hugo Boss have also reported disappointing sales, in part due to China’s weakening market. But Burberry’s problems seem to run deeper than this.
The company appears to be suffering from an identity crisis. It switched strategy in the late 2010s to concentrate on the ultra-high-end segment of the fashion market.
But it’s already partially throwing in the towel on this idea. Its focus is now on “rebalancing our product offer to include a broader everyday luxury offer and a more complete assortment across key categories,” it has said.
Burberry has got through five different chief executives in just over 10 years. It’s also had several creative directors in that time, although that’s not unexpected at such a business. But I think the CEO situation shows a company without a clear direction, and one that’s in a muddle with its brand.
Still pricey
I’m not counting Burberry out, mind. Its latest chief executive Joshua Schulman has a strong track record at heavyweight brands Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo and Coach. He could be just the man to turn around the firm’s fortunes.
However, it’s too much of a risk for me, and especially at current prices.
Even after its share price collapse this year, Burberry shares still carry a high valuation. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.1 times is more than double the FTSE 100 index average.
Given the mountain the firm has to climb, I don’t think opening a position at these levels would be wise. Such a rating could prompt another price slump if news coming out of the fashion house spooks investors again.
I think there are much better recovery stocks available for me to buy right now.
