Is the NIO share price ripe for a fall?

The NIO share price could suffer a significant decline if the company struggles to take market share from its larger peers, argues this Fool.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

The NIO (NYSE: NIO) share price has become one of the hottest investments to own during the past 12 months. Indeed, during this period, the stock is up around 560%.

It seems to me investors are buying into the company’s growth story. The electric vehicle manufacturer is ramping up production. In April, it said it had completed upgrades to its manufacturing capacity to allow the production of 10,000 vehicles per month.

What’s more, a few weeks ago, it announced a deal with the Chinese state-owned automaker Jianghuai Automobile Group, which manufactures its vehicles, to increase production to around 20,000 cars per month. 

Unfortunately, the output is currently restricted to 7,500 vehicles a month due to a shortage of battery cells and semiconductors. Nevertheless, in April, NIO announced the production of its 100,000th vehicle. 

NIO share price competitors 

Compared to other electric vehicle producers, the corporation is charging ahead. On that basis, the NIO share price looks to be a good investment compared to the rest of the sector. 

But NIO is just one of a range of business is all fighting for market share. As well as its close competitors, such as Tesla, the company is also having to fight off competition from the likes of General Motors. The latter recently announced it’ll be boosting its global spending on electric and autonomous vehicles by 30% over the next few years. This will take the total spend to $35bn.

Meanwhile, Ford’s luxury Lincoln brand aims for half of all sales to be electric vehicles by 2026. 

Over in Europe, towards the end of last year, Volkswagen announced it plans to launch 70 all-electric models by 2030, with 20 of them already in production. Management has earmarked $86bn to hit this target. 

These are just some of the challengers vying for market share in the electric vehicle market. At this stage, it’s impossible to say which company will succeed.

Risk and reward 

There’s space for a range of vehicle manufacturers in the market. Still, to justify the high valuation on the NIO share price, the company will have to take significant market share. It’s unclear whether it’ll be able to do this. 

The company does have some competitive advantages, which should work in its favour. Its battery swapping technology is relatively unique. It also has the support of the Chinese government, which should help the enterprise conquer the Chinese market. 

Still, compared to the likes of Tesla and Volkswagen, the $78bn-cap is in its early stages of development. As such, I think there’s a high likelihood the NIO share price could suffer a fall if competition in the market restricts the company’s growth. With competitors pumping so much money into the market, this seems likely. 

Therefore, I wouldn’t buy the stock for my portfolio today. I’d rather invest in one of the market’s more established companies, such as Tesla.

Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended NIO Inc. and Tesla. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Black woman using smartphone at home, watching stock charts.
Investing Articles

2 spectacular growth stocks to consider buying in March

Investors ignore the risks with growth stocks when things are going well. But when this changes, fixating on the dangers…

Read more »

UK financial background: share prices and stock graph overlaid on an image of the Union Jack
Investing Articles

Why is the FTSE 100 suddenly beating the S&P 500?

The UK's blue-chip index has been on fire over the past couple of years, helping it catch up to the…

Read more »

Artillery rocket system aimed to the sky and soldiers at sunset.
Investing Articles

This non-oil FTSE stock’s risen 4.6% in 3 days. What’s going on?

Against the backdrop of trouble in the Middle East, James Beard investigates why this FTSE 100 stock’s doing so well.…

Read more »

Three signposts pointing in different directions, with 'Buy' 'Sell' and 'Hold' on
Investing Articles

Has a 2026 stock market crash just come a whole lot closer?

If we're in for a stock market crash, what's the best way for us to prepare, and what kinds of…

Read more »

Silhouette of a bull standing on top of a landscape with the sun setting behind it
Investing Articles

Up 79% in a year, this FTSE 250 stock still gets a resounding Strong Buy from analysts

This under-the-radar growth stock in the FTSE 250 has been on fire over the past 12 months. Why are City…

Read more »

Frustrated young white male looking disconsolate while sat on his sofa holding a beer
Investing Articles

Vistry shares down 20%! Here’s what I’m doing…

Vistry shares have crashed as the firm cuts prices and moves away from share buybacks. But is Stephen Wright’s long-term…

Read more »

UK financial background: share prices and stock graph overlaid on an image of the Union Jack
Investing Articles

The IAG share price is climbing today despite war fears – what’s going on?

It's been a tough week for the IAG share price and Harvey Jones expects more volatility. Yet the FTSE 100…

Read more »

Businessman with tablet, waiting at the train station platform
Investing Articles

By March 2027, £1,000 invested in Natwest shares could turn into…

NatWest shares have been on a tear in recent years. What might the next 12 months have in store for…

Read more »