August has been a busy month for company news, but what does September have to offer? It’s going to be quieter, but we still have some key updates coming our way.
Buy housebuilders?
On 6 September, we’re due full-year results from housebuilder Redrow (LSE: RDW), whose shares were pummelled by the fallout from the EU referendum — the price shed a whopping 31% in the days after the vote. But since then we’ve been seeing a recovery as it has begun to sink in that the UK’s chronic housing shortage is, in fact, still with us. Since a low on 6 July, Redrow shares have put on 47% to reach 390p, which doesn’t quite match pre-Brexit levels but you’d still have done very nicely if you’d spotted the irrational panic and dived in.
What are we looking for on results day? Redrow’s pre-close update on 28 June told us that pre-tax profit will be “above the top end of analysts’ estimates, currently £240m.” But what about the Brexit effect? The firm says: “Although it is too early to tell whether Brexit will have any effect on future sales, initial feedback is that sites remain busy, reservations continue to be taken and, indeed, we witnessed long queues and strong reservations at new sites…“
Although recent growth rates are set to slow, Redrow shares are on a forward P/E of only seven, and to me that’s just too cheap, so keep your eyes peeled on the sixth. Oh, and watch out for Barratt Developments‘ results the day after.
A pharma bargain?
Alliance Pharma (LSE: APH) has first-half results coming out on 14 September, and with the share price picking up sharply recently, someone is clearly watching out for them. Since 27 June, the shares have risen by 18% to 49p, including a sharp rise in the past week or so.
Alliance’s last update, on 19 July, was upbeat — integration of acquisitions going well, overall sales doubled by the addition of Sinclair Healthcare in December, and key product sales going strongly. The Brexit issue was raised, and nobody really has much idea what effect it will have (in the wider world of shares too, not just for Alliance Pharma), but the firm isn’t expecting any great problems — and cheaper sterling should help its overseas sales.
The shares are on a forward P/E of around 12, which looks like good value to me for a growing pharmaceuticals firm — not without risk, but could be worth a modest punt.
Oily tragedy
Then on 22 September, we should have first-half figures from Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP). And for once, the actual figures aren’t going to mean a great deal at this stage as they’ll be completely overshadowed by the bailout deal that looks set to save the company — but will wipe out much of the existing shareholders’ interest.
We’ve recently had a ‘competent person’s report’, which has held Gulf’s gross Shaikan 2P Reserves unchanged at 622m barrels of oil, but its net working interest has been upped from 348m barrels to 360m, so we really are looking at a company that’s sitting on some impressive resources.
It’s been a tough time for shareholders, but for those thinking of buying in, we really need to wait for the dust to settle on the rescue deal before I’d say we can assess any valuation at all.
