64% under ‘fair value’ with 36% annual forecast earnings growth! 1 overlooked FTSE 250 gem to buy today?

This overlooked FTSE 250 retailer has quietly rebuilt itself into a profit machine, but the market hasn’t noticed. The valuation gap looks big to me.

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FTSE 250 online electricals specialist AO World (LSE: AO) has transformed itself over the past few years.

From 2022, it started pulling back from unprofitable lines, tightening its cost base, and focusing on margin over volume. And it now stands as a leaner, higher‑margin model with a clear path to sustained strong profitability.

Yet the market continues to price the shares as if the old loss‑making version still exists. And that disconnect between outdated perception and present reality has left a massive price-to-valuation gap, I feel.

So, what potential gains could savvy investors make?

What are the key earnings growth drivers?

A risk for AO is increased competition in its retail sector that could compress its margins. Another is any problem with its online platform that could prove costly to remedy and could damage its reputation.

Nevertheless, consensus analysts’ forecasts are that its earnings will grow by a whopping average of 35.8% a year over the medium term.  And it is ultimately growth in earnings that drives a firm’s share price.

This looks well supported to me based on its full-year 2025 numbers. These showed adjusted profit before tax up 32% year on year to £45m. This highlighted the operational gearing AO is now unlocking through higher‑margin Five Star membership growth and improved economics in small‑item warehousing.

Over the same period, revenue rose 12% to £832m, reflecting AO’s wider product range and stronger customer loyalty incentive initiatives. And free cash flow increased 9% to £23m, highlighting tighter working‑capital discipline that will continue to support earnings expansion.

In its H1 2026 figures, management said it expected full-year profit to be at the top end of its previous £45m–£50m guidance.

How undervalued are the shares?

Value reflects the fundamentals of the underlying business, while price is just whatever the market will pay at any given point. And over time, price tends to converge to value.

To gauge AO’s ‘fair value’, I ran a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, which projects future cash flows and discounts them back to today. The more uncertain those projections are, the higher the return investors demand, increasing the discount applied.

Because analysts choose different assumptions, their DCF models naturally diverge. Using my own framework — including a discount rate of 7.9% — the shares look 64% undervalued at their current 90p price.

That implies a fair value of £2.50 — more than double where the stock trades today. So, if the gap between price and value continues to close, this could be a tremendous opportunity if those DCF assumptions hold.

My investment view

AO now operates as a far stronger business than the market gives it credit for. It has a leaner model, improving margins, and a clear route to exceptionally strong earnings growth.

The disconnect between the share price and the underlying business means the stock is worthy of investor attention, in my view.

That said, it does not align with my present investment focus, which is all about high-yield stocks, while AO pays no dividend currently. I intend to use the income from these stocks to continue to reduce my working commitments.

In fact, my eye has recently been caught by some very high-yielding shares, which also look deeply undervalued.

Simon Watkins has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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