Greggs’ (LSE:GRG) shares have had a rough year. Down nearly 34% from their 52-week high and off almost 28% on a one-year basis, the sausage roll maker now trades on around 11.7 times forward earnings. That’s a far cry from the lofty multiples (near 25 times) the market was happy to pay a couple of years ago.
Some investors will look at that and see value. I’m less convinced.
The earnings picture’s worse than it looks
The problem is the trajectory. Earnings per share actually fell from 144p in 2024 to 119p in 2025 — a drop of nearly 17% — as cost pressures bit and like-for-like sales growth slowed.
The recovery forecast from here is modest at best as analysts expect around 125p in 2026 and 131p in 2027. That means Greggs will likely end 2027 still below where it was in 2024.
For a company growing earnings at essentially zero over a three-year period, 11.7 times forward earnings doesn’t strike me as obviously cheap — particularly when you factor in a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 2.6. This figure suggests the market’s still paying a meaningful premium relative to growth.
Operating profit also fell — from £209m in 2024 to £184m in 2025 — and net debt climbed from £290m to £404m over the same period. Meanwhile, dividend cover has slipped from 2.17 times to 1.81 times.
The income story’s still viable, but it’s looking more stretched than it was.
Sausage rolls might not be the future
There’s a bigger picture concern that I think deserves more attention than it tends to get. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are reshaping how millions of people think about food, and a genuine cultural shift towards healthier eating has been quietly building for years.
Greggs’ entire proposition — affordable, convenient, and unashamedly indulgent — is precisely what both of those trends work against. That may not yet show up dramatically in next year’s numbers.
But when you’re buying a share, you’re buying the next decade, not the next quarter. It’s a challenge that was simply overlooked during the cost-of-living crisis.
My take
The dividend yield of around 4.7% is eye-catching and I understand the attraction. It’s above the index average and the yield alone would fit well into an income-focused portfolio.
But here’s a thought: a five-year UK gilt currently yields somewhere in the region of 4.5%. For a comparable income, with considerably more certainty over capital, a government bond is a genuinely reasonable alternative. I also appreciate that understanding bonds (gilts) isn’t top of every novice investor’s list after they’ve cracked understanding stocks.
Finally, I’m aware that the company is well-run and has a loyal customer base. But for me, with this growth profile, a deteriorating cover ratio, rising debt, and a structural question mark over its core market, Greggs’ shares don’t make the cut at current prices. I don’t think it’s worth considering, but I’m sure some will still disagree with me.
