National Grid (LSE: NG) shares have fallen 14% from their 2 March 12-month traded high of £14.31. This could signal a bargain to be had — but not necessarily. It all depends on where the true value of the stock is.
This is rarely where the stock price is trading at any point. The reason is that price is just a function of market supply and demand, while value reflects the strength of the underlying business’s fundamentals.
So, are National Grid shares worth buying right now?
Strong growth momentum?
Superficially, the company’s fundamentals look compelling. Analysts expect it to increase earnings at an average annual rate of around 12% through to 2028. And it is these that ultimately power any firm’s share price over time.
Part of this could be driven by the sharp increase in UK transmission revenues. As new projects — like interconnectors, offshore wind links, and major reinforcement work — are completed, they get added to the regulated asset base. That means National Grid is allowed to earn more on them, which lifts profits over time. A risk here is any enduring failure in this network.
Another part should come from its US operations, helped by recent rate case settlements. These involved National Grid and local US regulators agreeing on how much it is allowed to charge customers. It determines how much profit it can make over the next few years.
Additionally positive is that customer‑driven demand for grid connections — from data centres to renewable developers — is rising rapidly. And with management reporting improved cost efficiencies and strong progress on major infrastructure projects, the operational execution behind this growth story looks increasingly robust. A risk here, though, is any multi-year increase in energy prices that could dampen customer demand and the UK’s rollout of AI-supportive infrastructure in turn.
So what about the valuation?
However, this is where knowing the difference between price and value really matters to long-term investors’ profits.
A company might well look a great buy and be well supported by strong fundamentals. But this value may already be fully reflected in the price — in fact, it may have been over-reflected in the price.
As legendary investor Warren Buffett put it: “Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” He added that investors should focus on buying companies with a value that is greater than their price.
A discounted cash flow analysis identifies the true worth (‘fair value’) of any stock. It projects a firm’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today.
Some analysts’ DCF modelling is more bearish than mine based on the variables used. However, based on my DCF assumptions (including a 7.3% discount rate), National Grid shares are neither overvalued nor undervalued — but rather are fairly valued — at their current £12.32 price.
My investment view
I do not believe in overpaying for shares any more than Mr Buffett does. But I also have little interest in buying stocks that are fairly valued, either.
I look for stocks that are trading significantly below their fair value, so National Grid is not for me. And several of these, often with substantial dividend income attached, have recently caught my eye.
