Inflation, war, energy supply, consumer confidence, the private credit market. Take your pick: suddenly the fear factors in the stock market are notably more prominent than just a month ago.
Still, as billionaire investor Warren Buffett has long said, it can pay to be fearful when others are greedy – and greedy when they are fearful.
With fear in the market right now, could this be the time to be greedy?
This market still looks high to me
Yes and no, would be my answer.
Let’s start with the idea of not being greedy right now.
There is a lot of fear in the stock market – and for good reason. The market does not like uncertainty – and there is plenty of that to go around right now.
However, we had already seen the FTSE 100 hit a new all-time high on multiple occasions this year. It is now down 9% since the end of last month, putting it close to correction territory (a fall of at least 10% in short order), but still well short of a crash.
Yet the FTSE 100 is still slightly above the level at which it began the year.
The FTSE 250 is faring worse, but is only 5% lower than the start of the year. Stateside, the S&P 500 is down 4% so far this year.
In other words, although the market has a smell of growing fearfulness, it is actually not doing as badly as one might expect given current risks and uncertainty levels.
So it feels as if we are seeing a wobble, but not yet mass panic selling (and that may not end up happening at all).
I reckon that the main stock indexes could potentially yet sink a lot further simply to reflect current risks more fully, let alone any worsening of the economic outlook.
There could be bargains here, though
Still, might there be some reasons for an investor to be greedy? I think so.
Volatile markets often mark down some shares more than they deserve, as investors are jittery. So, already, I think the current market offers some potential bargains.
For example, the share price of footwear maker Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) has collapsed 24% in little over a month.
That puts the share in crash territory, as a crash is commonly used to describe a short-term price fall of 20% or more.
Rising oil prices could add costs to the manufacturing price of Crocs’s footwear made using synthetic products. Snarled shipping lanes could add to logistics costs and mean the import-reliant company needs to tie up more working capital in inventory.
Meanwhile, the company has continued to struggle with the performance of HEYDUDE, after it bought the brand in what I regard as a disastrous acquisition back in 2021.
But has the underlying value of the company really collapsed?
I do not think so.
Crocs’ design is iconic. It has excellent operational capabilities. The brand, while often mocked, is pervasive and well-known.
The company expects revenue this year to be more or less flat, while double-digit percentage revenue growth for the Crocs brand internationally points to the size of the ongoing growth opportunity.
I plan to hang onto my Crocs shares. At the current price, I see it as a share for a long- term investor to consider.
