The escalating Iran war is naturally raising fears worldwide. It also has many investors worrying about a stock market crash. The crisis has caused global markets to wobble in recent weeks.
Iran has closed the vital Strait of Hormuz to the US and its allies. That has wreaked havoc in global oil markets, as the passageway is responsible for about 20% of the global oil trade.
There’s no doubt this could hit the global economy hard if the deadlock persists. However, I think there is another hidden risk that is looming large in the shadows of the conflict.
What’s happening with oil prices?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has rattled markets. Governments around the world are scrambling to find a solution to unblock this arterial trade route that carries about 20% of the world’s oil supplies.
The impact on oil prices has been immediate and large. As I write on 17 March, Brent crude is trading at over $100 a barrel. That’s a fair cry from the pre-conflict price of $66 a barrel just one month ago.
A hidden danger?
Oil isn’t the only important commodity that could be impacted by the conflict. More than 30% of the world’s nitrogen fertiliser exports and components like sulphur ordinarily pass through the Strait.
The knock-on effects from the closure to global economies could be massive. Hormuz is responsible for around 45% of global sulphur exports, while neighbouring Qatar accounts for nearly one-third of global helium output.
A protracted conflict could seriously impact fertiliser availability. In turn, that could impact food production and food prices. The economic and humanitarian impacts of such a situation could be enormous.
Sulphur is vital for fertilisers, chemicals, and chipmaking, while helium matters for medical imaging, semiconductors, and aerospace. In other words, the conflict isn’t just about oil.
Large-scale supply chain disruption could squeeze earnings across multiple sectors at once. That sort of scenario could feasibly create the risk of a stock market crash in 2026.
One fertiliser stock to watch
One stock I am keeping an eye on here is Wynnstay Group (LSE: WYN).
That’s because this AIM-listed company with an £86m market cap could give investors more direct exposure to the fertiliser industry than many other UK shares.
The company is by no means a global commodities giant. However, it is a well-established agricultural supplies business with a dedicated Fertiliser & Seed division and its own fertiliser blending operations.
Its latest results suggest it is in decent shape. It reported revenue of £583.4m, adjusted profit before tax of £9.2m, and net cash of £25.7m, while also extending its long record of dividend growth.
There are still big risks. The company is small, and the impact of the conflict on the company’s fortunes is not immediately clear.
If costs rise too far, for example, farmers could cut or delay spending and actually hurt the company’s earnings.
My verdict
While markets are worried, none of this means a stock market crash is inevitable.
As always, it helps to take a long-term view. Investors who are fixated on just oil prices may be missing the bigger commodity picture and supply chain story here.
If the war rages on, I think other areas like fertiliser, sulphur, and helium could present some real opportunities for investors.
