The BP (LSE: BP) share price is flying again after a bumpy few years. I wish I could put that down to a brilliant management reset following years of boardroom uncertainty and confused green strategy, but that’s not it. Quite obviously, it’s down to war in Iran, which has driven the oil price from around $60 a barrel in January to $104 this morning (18 March). Can this continue?
I added the FTSE 100 oil and gas giant to my SIPP 18 months ago and had mixed feelings from the start. I wasn’t entirely comfortable backing a fossil fuel giant given climate concerns. I feared being on the wrong side of history, both morally and financially.
Cyclical recovery
A solid dividend helps soothe some fears. With BP shares yielding 6% a year, I pressed the Buy button. While early performance was disappointing, I sat back and waited for the cyclical upturn. And now it’s here. Maybe.
BP shares have jumped a hefty 20% in the last month, offsetting losses elsewhere in my SIPP, although nowhere near all of them sadly. How should investors approach BP today though?
In the short term, with caution. Oil prices can swing wildly on events far beyond any company’s control. Geopolitics, supply disruptions, OPEC decisions, global demand and economic growth all feed into crude. Today, there’s Iran. The headlines are lurid. There’s talk of oil spiking to $150 or even $200, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer. Yet it actually retreated yesterday, and again today. So did BP shares.
Long-term view
Markets don’t move in straight lines, even when the headlines suggest they should. Anyone chasing quick gains could therefore be caught out. At The Motley Fool, we always recommend buying shares with a long-term view. In the days ahead, the war in Iran and the BP share price could go anywhere. The cleverest analyst in the world can’t say what will happen.
The longer-term case is clearer. Despite all the talk of transition, the world still needs oil and gas. The Iran war proves that. Fossil fuels will be required for base power, say, when the wind doesn’t blow or sun doesn’t shine. Oil also underpins everything from plastics to chemicals and manufacturing. That demand won’t disappear overnight.
BP may gradually become less central to the global economy, but it’s unlikely to vanish any time soon. That gives it a role for decades, even as the energy mix evolves.
Building wealth steadily
Chasing BP for short-term gains is a gamble. Taking a long-term view makes more sense. Those worried about overpaying following the recent jump could drip-feed money into the stock, to smooth volatility. The real rewards from shares come over the years, as reinvested dividends and share price growth build and compound. BP’s trailing yield has fallen in recent days, but it’s still a pretty attractive 4.5% a year.
Investors who think the BP share price can only climb as Middle East tensions continue should think twice. But with a long-term view, I think it’s well worth considering as part as a balanced portfolio.
