The International Consolidated Airlines (LSE:IAG) share price has hit serious turbulence in recent weeks. Like other global airlines, it’s slumped in value as a new war in the Middle East has erupted. But that’s only part of the story, with its shares in freefall even before the conflict began last week.
The question is, can IAG’s shares rebound from this lull? City analysts are confident they can — 21 currently have ratings on the FTSE 100 stock, and their 12-month price target is 500.6p. That’s up 33% from today’s levels of 376.6p.
One of these number crunchers is even more positive. They’re tipping a price of 680p by this time next year, which is 81% higher than today’s prices.
In the current climate, are these estimates realistic? I have my doubts…
Cracks showing?
The risks to IAG’s post-pandemic recovery were high even before the tragic Iran war began.
Its full-year financial update on Friday (27 November) revealed record profits of €5bn in 2025, up 17% year on year. The problem is that business is starting to slow sharply. Sales growth of 4% was hardly terrible last year, but it had more than halved from 9% in 2024. And in the December quarter, revenues actually fell almost 1% due to weak passenger and cargo demand.
IAG is facing significant sales and margin pressures as competitors slash air fares. But that’s not the only problem. Consumer spending is weak in many key markets, and the airline’s move to offer more premium seats leaves it vulnerable if conditions remain tough.
Its long-haul routes also face headwinds as the US becomes a less attractive destination for global travellers. International travel to the States dropped more than 4% in 2025, which is a big problem for IAG’s transatlantic operations.
Middle East disruption
With conflict in the Middle East continuing, the company’s quest to grow revenues and profits have become even more challenging. On Tuesday (10 March) British Airways announced it was cancelling all flights between Amman, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai and Tel Aviv until later this month. Journeys to and from Abu Dhabi have been cancelled too.
The biggest challenge for IAG and its share price, though, are disruptions to oil shipments from the region. Prices surged to six-year peaks above $119 per barrel this week. They’ve settled since, but could spike again at any moment given the evolving situation.
Are IAG shares worth considering?
Given these factors, I’m far from convinced IAG will deliver the share price gains brokers are expecting. But it’s not impossible. Rising oil prices could fuel a broader surge in inflation, putting consumer spending under further strain. However, strong demand in emerging markets could still push the firm’s sales and profits higher in 2026.
British Airways’ formidable brand power could also support growth, and moves to offer greater premium services could support earnings if demand from high-net-worth individuals holds up.
But do these factors outweigh the dangers we’ve discussed? I’m not sure, and I believe IAG’s share price could remain under the cosh. I’ve identified several other top stocks I personally would rather buy right now.
