Since the start of 2025, Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY) shares have risen over 90%. But for how much longer will this impressive run continue? Here are some important financial metrics that I think are likely to have a big influence.
Taking an interest
The net interest margin (NIM) measures the difference between the amount charged on loans and that paid on deposits, expressed as a percentage of interest-earning assets. In a higher interest rate environment there’s more scope for increasing loan rates. But the opposite could apply if competition intensifies.
In 2025, Lloyds reported a NIM of 3.06%. Although an improvement on the previous year, it was slightly below the figure reported in 2023. But this isn’t surprising given that the Bank of England’s base rate was at its post-pandemic high of 5.25% at the end of that year. It’s now fallen to 3.75%.
| Year | Net interest margin (%) | Base rate at 31 December (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2.71 | 0.25 |
| 2017 | 2.86 | 0.50 |
| 2018 | 2.93 | 0.75 |
| 2019 | 2.88 | 0.75 |
| 2020 | 2.52 | 0.10 |
| 2021 | 2.54 | 0.25 |
| 2022 | 2.94 | 3.50 |
| 2023 | 3.11 | 5.25 |
| 2024 | 2.95 | 4.75 |
| 2025 | 3.06 | 3.75 |
What I’m struggling to understand is why analysts are forecasting that Lloyds will be able to raise its NIM to 3.45% by 2028, given that the UK’s central bank is widely expected to continue to cut the cost of borrowing. Some experts are forecasting that the base rate will settle at around 2.5% in 2027.
Having said that, when interest rates were close to zero, the bank reported a NIM of 2.52%-2.93%. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic? But we live in different times now. Digital banks are threatening to take market share from those with a high street presence.
Impairments
Accounting standards require banks to make a regular assessment of the recoverability of their loans. Based on pre-determined formulae, this results in a movement (up or down) in a provision that’s included on their balance sheets. If the position worsens, an impairment charge (cost) is included in the income statement, which reduces earnings. An improvement has the opposite effect.
A look back over the past 10 years shows, unsurprisingly, a big problem during the pandemic. Since then, things have stabilised.
| Year | Impairment (charge)/credit (£m) |
|---|---|
| 2016 | (645) |
| 2017 | (795) |
| 2018 | (937) |
| 2019 | (1,291) |
| 2020 | (4,247) |
| 2021 | 1,385 |
| 2022 | (1,510) |
| 2023 | (308) |
| 2024 | (433) |
| 2025 | (795) |
With nearly all of the bank’s business generated from UK-based customers, the quality of its loan book will be affected by the performance of the domestic economy. Although most economists are forecasting relatively modest growth over the next few years, a weakening British economy is likely to be bad news for Lloyds.
Passive income
Finally, I reckon the bank’s dividend will have some impact on its share price. As the table below shows, the stock’s historically offered an above-average yield. This has fallen lately due to the bank’s amazing share price performance.
| Year | Share price (pence) | Dividend per share (pence) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 62.03 | 3.05 | 4.9 |
| 2017 | 68.06 | 3.05 | 4.5 |
| 2018 | 51.85 | 3.21 | 6.2 |
| 2019 | 62.50 | 1.12 | 1.8 |
| 2020 | 36.44 | 0.57 | 1.6 |
| 2021 | 47.80 | 2.00 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 45.41 | 2.40 | 5.3 |
| 2023 | 47.71 | 2.76 | 5.8 |
| 2024 | 54.78 | 3.17 | 5.8 |
| 2025 | 98.24 | 3.65 | 3.7 |
Analysts are expecting a dividend of 5.77p a share by 2028. This implies a forward yield of 5.5% (at 27 February), which would help restore Lloyds’ status as a share that’s great for passive income. Of course, there can never be any guarantees.
Too good to be true?
If analysts’ forecasts prove to be accurate, I’m sure Lloyds’ share price will rise higher still. With earnings per share (EPS) of 12.8p expected in 2028, the stock’s currently trading on a modest 8.1 times forecast earnings.
Personally, I have my doubts that the bank will be able to achieve this. Over the past decade, its highest annual EPS has been 7.5p, in 2021. I reckon there are more attractive opportunities to consider elsewhere.
