Lloyds (LSE: LLOY) shares have performed really well lately. Earlier this year, they crossed the £1 mark for the first time in over a decade.
However, just as the shares have found their mojo, a material new risk has emerged for the Footsie bank. Not many people are talking about it right now, but it could come into focus as the year progresses.
AI job losses are coming
The risk I’m referring to is AI-related white collar job losses. These are starting to become a quantifiable reality rather than just a speculative concept.
Recently, a number of big, global companies have made significant layoffs due to AI automation. Examples here include Amazon, Salesforce, and Dow Inc.
Realistically, the situation is only likely to get worse from here. Because AI technology is becoming more advanced every day.
Note that last week the CEO of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) powerhouse Klarna, Sebastian Siemiatkowski, said that he expects around a third of jobs at the company to disappear by 2030 as AI scales across operations. He expects AI to be able to handle tasks across customer service, marketing, and operations.
How this could impact Lloyds
Now, for a bank like Lloyds, job losses could be a bit of a problem. Because if a ton of people across the UK are out of work due to AI, we could see a sharp increase in mortgage loan defaults.
The issue for Lloyds is that it’s not a particularly diversified business (unlike its major peers/rivals, it doesn’t have investment banking or trading operations). Ultimately, a large chunk of its income comes from UK mortgage lending.
It’s worth noting that when AI disruption fears started to ripple through the market recently, hitting sectors like software and insurance, Lloyds’ share price actually fell significantly. At one stage, it fell back below £1, after trading as high as £1.15 in early February.
This may have just been a coincidence (that is, profit-taking after a strong rise in the share price). Or it may have been the ‘smart money’ starting to sniff out the risk here.
Lloyds could benefit from AI
Now, of course, no one knows for sure how this will all play out. The emergence of AI may not end up having much of an impact on Lloyds.
It’s worth pointing out that it’s likely to streamline a lot of its own operations (fraud detection, customer service, etc) with AI technology in the years ahead. This could dramatically lower its costs and offset any hit from an increase in loan defaults.
I think the risk needs to be monitored, however. It’s definitely something to keep in mind.
Given the risk, and the fact that the stock has had a huge run over the last year, I’m not tempted to buy the shares. Right now, I’m focusing on other opportunities in the market.
