2025’s generally been quite a good year for the BT Group (LSE:BT.A) share price. The leading telecommunications giant has seen its market-cap expand by over 20% since January. And it’s no doubt a welcome change compared to the lacklustre performance of BT shares since mid-2022.
Could this be a critical turning point that sees the recent rally continue into 2026 and perhaps even see the company’s market-cap more than double?
A catalyst for rapid growth
Under the new leadership of Allison Kirkby, BT’s identified and begun delivering on some key cost-saving initiatives. In fact, £1.2bn in annualised savings have already been delivered with another £1.8bn on the horizon.
However, the true impact of these efficiency gains has yet to fully materialise in BT’s financials. That’s because the company’s aggressively spending to roll out its fibre-to-the-premises (FTTP) network and 5G mobile network infrastructure.
However, both of these projects are expected to be now or near their peak investment periods. After all, there are roughly 30 million homes in the UK, and 20.3 million of them are now covered by BT’s FTTP network. Similarly, 66% of the UK population now has 5G coverage.
Why does this matter? As BT nears the completion of this infrastructure upgrade, the group’s capital expenditures could fall drastically. And when combined with cost savings from efficiencies, free cash flow could experience a sudden surge, giving management the financial flexibility to tackle its long-standing debt problem.
BT’s gearing remains a top concern among institutional investors. But if that weak spot’s strengthened, the FTSE stock could receive a re-rating from investors. And as we’ve seen with companies like Rolls-Royce, that can trigger an enormous, sustained share price rally.
What to expect in 2026
Realistically, expecting the BT share price to double in 2026 is ambitious. Even with near-perfect execution, the most bullish share price target from experts is around 312p – roughly 74% ahead of where BT shares are trading today.
What’s more, the company likely has to deliver more than stronger cash generation and lower leverage to justify a doubling of its market-cap. Specifically, investors want to see revenue growth. And even with Kirkby at the helm, that’s continued to be elusive.
Given that 5G and fibre products offer more upselling opportunities, BT might see some notable improvement in top-line performance as more of its customers upgrade away from legacy products. However, so far, this benefit has yet to materialise as fierce competition as well as regulatory caps constrain the firm’s pricing power.
So where does that leave investors? Overall, there’s no guarantee BT shares will double next year, or even reach the specific 312p price target. And with a patchy track record of hitting targets, it might be unwise to bet the house of BT delivering an explosive comeback next year.
Having said that, for long-term, patient investors seeking to diversify into the British telecommunications space, BT shares may still be worth a closer look if it can continue delivering encouraging results.
