At the start of 2025, I saw various reasons to be concerned about where the stock market might go. 2025 is not over yet, but so far we have avoided a stock market crash
April did see a ‘correction’, commonly defined as a sudden fall of 10% or more, whereas a crash requires 20% or greater.
The FTSE 100’s 11% fall in the first week of April now feels like a distant memory. Indeed, since then, the flagship UK share index has risen 26%.
But is the British economy 26% stronger than in April – or at all?
Growing more nervous about valuations
I do not think the economy is in notably better shape than it was earlier in the year.
In itself though, that might not be relevant in terms of where the UK stock market goes from here.
After all, the FTSE100 remains less aggressively valued relative to earnings than its US counterpart and some other overseas stock market indexes.
Broadly speaking, investor sentiment has held up so far this year despite wobbles along the way. That could continue.
What if it does not, though?
Sooner or later there will be a stock market crash — but nobody knows when.
Could it happen in 2026? Absolutely. Geopolitical risks remain high and the global economic outlook is not that strong.
However, that was true a year ago – and since then, stock markets on both sides of the pond have moved upwards. Key indexes including the FTSE 100 have repeatedly set new all-time highs along the way.
Rather than trying to time the market, which it is impossible to do with absolute confidence, I am instead making hay while the sun shines – but also preparing for a storm!
Compiling a list of brilliant shares to buy
By ‘making hay’, I mean that this year I have bought shares I think potentially offer great value.
Some, such as JD Sports and Diageo, have seen their prices tumble this year even while the broader FTSE 100 index has moved upwards strongly. I have bought both.
But I am also preparing for that storm even though I do not know when it will happen.
Specifically, I have been looking for great companies I would love to invest in, but that currently sell for more than I want to pay.
That way, if a market crash brings prices tumbling down, I should be ready.
One share on my list
For example, Games Workshop (LSE: GAW) is the sort of quality company I would be happy to own – if only I could buy it at what I saw as an attractive price.
The Games Workshop share price has been riding high, having risen 92% over the past five years.
Selling fantasy games and associated paraphernalia is big business – and offers attractive profit margins. Games Workshop benefits from its own intellectual property including franchises like Warhammer.
It also has a well-heeled, loyal customer base and proven business model. So even in a tough economy, it may keep doing well.
The company’s concentrated manufacturing base brings risks, especially if anything happens to take its main factory complex offline.
But at the right price I would gladly add some of its shares to my portfolio.
