The FTSE 100 index of UK shares is on a roll. It’s surged 18% since the turn of the year, and closed at a new record of 9,777 points on 5 November. But there haven’t been further fireworks since then — in fact, the Footsie‘s fallen as risk aversion has flooded stock markets.
Is a push towards fresh all-time highs now off the table in the near term? I asked ChatGPT for the answer.
Big questions
I remain sceptical about the use of these artificial intelligence (AI) models for investing and financial planning tasks. But it’s quick and free to ask these machines a question. So I’ve followed the lead of millions of Britons and asked it what the future holds for the UK’s blue-chip share index.
More specifically, I punched in “when will the FTSE 100 hit 10,000 points?“. It told me that…
Taking into account current analyst targets and market momentum, I’d estimate there’s a reasonable chance the FTSE 100 might reach 10,000 within the next six to 12 months.
The AI said that this would depend on “favourable conditions,” including signs of earnings growth; low or steady interest rates; economic stability; rising commodity prices; and macroeconomic stability.
However, it added that “if conditions deteriorate, it may take 12 to 24 months or more” for the FTSE to hit the 10k landmark.
Thinking long term
The bot’s answer covers the main factors that could drive the index to new peaks. But it’s not going to win any medals for its insights. What’s more, its answer as to when the 10,000-point barrier will fall was pretty woolly, and nothing that countless analysts and market commentators haven’t already suggested.
The truth is that — barring a civilisation-grade catastrophe — the FTSE 100 will hit five-figures eventually. The long-term direction of stock markets is up, after all. Yet neither man nor machine can say with any degree of certainty when this is likely to occur.
What’s important is that investors stay focused on their long-term goals rather than trying to predict short-term market moves. Investing regularly, diversifying well, and ignoring the daily noise are the key ingredients to generating healthy stock market returns over time.
Aviva (LSE:AV.) is one share with significant long-term investment potential in my view, and a great one to consider today. It’s risen 42% in the year to date, significantly outpacing the broader blue-chip index.
It may struggle to keep up this momentum if economic conditions worsen. But I believe it will soar over the long-term, driven by demographic changes and the rising importance of financial planning in its UK, Irish and Canadian markets. It can also harness the growth power of emerging markets through investments in China and India.
On top of this, I’m expecting Aviva’s exceptional cash generation to keep providing market-beating dividends. For this year its dividend yield is a healthy 5.7%.
I hold shares in the financial services giant myself. I’d say it’s one of best Footsie stocks for investors to take a close look at.
