Former Prime Minister Harold Macmillan once famously quipped that what derails governments isn’t policy, but “events, dear boy, events.” In other words, unpredictable stuff. Yet some of the FTSE 100’s biggest winners of the past five years have surged precisely because of external events.
Here, I want to highlight five that have rocketed at least 250% since August 2020. Back then, few would have bet on them doing so.
Interest rate shifts
Five years ago, the UK was suffering from the pandemic, with minimal economic activity. Interest rates were slashed to near 0%, the lowest in history.
Needless to say, this wasn’t a great environment for UK banks, which had even been forced to halt dividend payments.
Fast forward to today though, bank stocks have absolutely surged. NatWest and Barclays are the pick of the bunch — up 350% and 255%, respectively. That’s before dividends, which have flowed freely since been restored.
The event that flipped the script entirely was the aggressive UK rate-hiking cycle that began in 2022. This has dramatically boosted banks’ net interest income, fuelling profits
In NatWest’s case, it has been transformed from a majority state-owned zombie bank into a dividend cash machine. The payout grew at an astonishing 58.4% compound annual growth rate between 2020 and 2024. And it’s forecast to jump another 36% this year.
Looking ahead, however, banks are facing a more uncertain outlook as the global economy processes tariffs. Meanwhile, the UK economy is stagnating, with high government borrowing (this may result in future tax rises, weakening consumer spending further).
Geopolitical shock
In the aerospace and defence sector, Rolls-Royce has clearly been the standout winner. The stock is up by a barely believable 1,250% over five years!
In 2020, the firm was facing bankruptcy. But an incredible financial turnaround under new management has propelled Rolls-Royce stock to an all-time high above £10.
To be fair, the whole sector has been on fire, with BAE Systems up around 265%. The catalyst event here, of course, was Russia’s terrible invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. This saw the defence giant’s order backlog surge from £44bn in 2021 to £77.8bn at the end of 2024.
For both firms, the risk of supply chain disruptions is real, especially as global trade becomes more complicated. Both stocks are also highly valued compared to their historical norms.
Supermarket turnaround
Finally, a shoutout goes to Marks and Spencer (LSE: MKS). Shares of the upmarket retailer are up around 260% since 2020.
Which of these do I think is still worth considering? Well, Marks and Spencer potentially looks decent value to me. Based on current earnings forecasts for next year (starting March), the forward price-to-earnings multiple is just above 10.
That said, the recent high-profile cybersecurity breach is concerning, especially as it’s going to hit near-term profits. If online disruption to key segments like food and fashion continues, then the impact could be worse than currently expected.
However, I think the positives here still outweigh that admittedly large negative. The firm’s clothing (especially womenswear) and food ranges have been revamped with better style and value.
Meanwhile, M&S’s partnership with Ocado finally appears to be bearing fruit. This online supermarket has repeatedly been named the fastest‑growing in the UK, based on volume and revenue growth.
