The financial sector figures strongly in the list of top Footsie dividend shares right now. But some of them lack the earnings to cover the cash.
As an example, Phoenix Group has a big forward dividend yield of 8.4%. But the latest Dividend Dashboard from AJ Bell shows earnings covering only 28% of that.
Cheap property stock
If we look for healthy cover too, real estate investment trust Land Securities Group (LSE: LAND) looks like a strong candidate with a 8.3% forecast. Crucially, projections show it covered 2.1 times by earnings.
A weak share price performance lies partly behind the big yield. But forecasts and an undemanding valuation make me think investors who ignore it could be making a mistake.
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Too cheap?
The 2019 dividend was cut in the wake of the Covid pandemic. But with the economy getting back on track, all those offices, shopping centres, and retail parks should see rising demand. I know online sellers are taking big shares of the retail market — but they still need bricks and mortar to make it all work.
Land saw net rental income rise 5% in the year ended March. And despite fears for the sector, CEO Mark Allen spoke of “a very healthy pipeline of occupier demand,” which he expects to provide “further near and medium-term EPS growth.”
The main danger I see is indeed the threat to commercial real estate values. Cloud-based business means locations are often not as important. And future economic weakness could damage earnings and the dividend.
But with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of only seven, I rate Land Securities as a good-value dividend stock worth considering.
Resurgent media
I’ve always liked media giant WPP (LSE: WPP), despite a few tough years since the departure of long-serving CEO and founder Sir Martin Sorrell.
The latest from AJ Bell suggests earnings should cover the 2025 dividend — put at 9.2% — 1.6 times. Forecasts show earnings per share growth of 9% between 2024 and 2027, which isn’t huge. But it does suggest things are coming back from the weakness of the past few years.
There is, though, a chance the recovery could be delayed, and those forecasts might have to be downgraded. The company has just warned that like-for-like revenue is likely to fall between 3% and 5% for the full year. The share price dipped on the news, and it’s now down 48% year-to-date.
Economic uncertainty
The economy is still tough, and spend on advertising, PR, and corporate media services is still squeezed. That’s a continuing threat going forward.
But for the long term, I see WPP as a company that still has a strong defensive moat. It would surely need a big effort to tempt away the likes of American Express, AT&T, Colgate-Palmolive, GSK and Nestlé. Saying that, the company has lost a couple of big clients this year. We need to keep an eye on that danger.
But for those who see the firm as still at the top of the game, and with the muscle to pursue new media technology like AI, it could be one for further research.
