Over the past five years, the Aviva (LSE: AV.) share price has climbed 120%, to reach 632p at the time of writing.
What do forecasts suggest for the next few years? Broker price targets are only relatively short term, and there’s currently a consensus for 648p. That’s only 2.5% ahead of today, though the most bullish analyst sees a potential 16% gain, to 735p.
Forecasts for fundamental performance surely also carry implicit share price predictions. If we think earnings and dividends will double, the price would also have to double to keep the valuation the same.
Earnings set to soar?
Aviva has been through a strenuous reorganisation, to become a leaner and fitter company. It shows in broker forcasts, which have 2025 earnings per share more than doubling from 2024.
That expectation is almost certainly already built into today’s share price. But the City sees a further 32% growth in earnings between 2025 and 2027. How likely is that?
At Q1 time, CEO Amanda Blanc said, “Aviva has leading positions in growing markets and we have seen excellent trading in a number of areas“. General insurance premiums rose 9% over the same quarter last year, with protection and health sales up 19%. The company recorded a Solvency II cover ratio of 201% — which means there’s more than enough cash on the books.
The update said Aviva is confident of reaching its target of £2bn in operating profit by 2026. From an adjusted figure of £1.77bn in 2024, that lends solid support to those forecasts.
The acquisition of Direct Line gives Aviva 20% of the UK’s motor and home insurance markets, which should also help boost its ambitions.
The share price?
What might this all mean for the share price?
We’re looking at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5 based on 2025 forecasts. The sector can be a cyclical one, and companies in it often command a lower P/E multiple than average because of it. But coming out of a weaker spell with earnings set to rise strongly, I don’t think Aviva’s is too demanding at all.
If the share price doesn’t move, predictions would drop the multiple to 10.2 by 2027. But for the share price to rise in parallel and keep the valuation consistent, we’d need to see a 32% gain.
That would suggest an 836p share price — some way ahead of the most bullish short-term target today of 735p.
Care needed
This sector is one of the hardest to predict — the insurance business itself needs uncertainty and unpredictability to even work.
And the investment side is widely exposed to the overall market and to economic conditions. A general downturn can easily turn into a bigger rout for those managing investments as punters take their money and run.
And insurance company dividends can often be some of the most variable on the market.
But bearing the risks in mind, Aviva remains a firm hold for me. And I think those with a long-term view should consider adding some to their portfolios.
