NatWest Group (LSE:NWG) and Arbuthnot Banking Group (LSE:ARBB) are two UK-listed banks with very different profiles but both attracting investor interest. With the NatWest shares price surging, I want to look at other options.
So let’s break down their forward valuations and dividend prospects to see which might offer better value for 2025 through 2027.
1. Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E)
NatWest’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to fall from 9.18 times in 2025 before falling back to 8.24 times in 2026 and 7.54 times in 2027. This reflects a continued earnings growth as the macroeconomic situation improves.
Arbuthnot, on the other hand, has a P/E falling from 7.37 times in 2025, then declining to 6.28 times in 2026 and 5.49 times in 2027. Arbuthnot’s lower multiples suggest it’s trading at a discount relative to NatWest, though its earnings are less predictable.
2. Dividend yield and payout
NatWest’s dividend per share is forecast to increase from 17p in 2024 to 29p in 2025, 32p in 2026, and 36p in 2027, translating to a dividend yield rising from 5.35% to 6.84%. Its payout ratio is steady around 40-51%, indicating a balanced approach between rewarding shareholders and retaining capital.
Arbuthnot’s dividends are expected to fall from 2024 — an exceptional year at 69p — falling to 53p in 2025, and then rising to 57p in 2026, and 61p in 2027, with the yield reaching 6.39% at the end of the period. Its payout ratio’s expected to fall from 45% in 2024 to 35% in 2027.
3. Price-to-book and revenue multiples
NatWest’s price-to-book-ratio (PBR) is forecast to rise from 0.82 times in 2024 to 1.12 times in 2025. It then eases to 0.96 times in 2027, showing growing investor confidence. Arbuthnot’s PBR’s lower, around 0.54 times in 2024 with no onward forecast. Both banks trade at similar enterprise value-to-revenue multiples near 0.8–0.85 times in 2025, indicating comparable market pricing relative to revenues.
4. Growth and outlook
NatWest benefits from a strong capital position, improving net interest margins, and a supportive UK banking environment, driving steady earnings growth. Arbuthnot, a smaller, more niche player, also shows rapid revenue growth but more earnings volatility, which may appeal to investors seeking higher risk and reward.
My verdict
Arbuthnot looks slightly cheaper, based on forward earnings metrics, despite having a marginally lower dividend yield. I would however, suggest that the lower payout ratio could lead to faster dividend growth. Personally, I favour the AIM-listed bank. However, I appreciate that being AIM listed, it may be easily overlooked by investors. Coupled with its smaller size, it may continue to trade at a discount to larger peers.
I believe investors should consider both stocks, and decide which is right for their portfolios. However, my choice is Arbuthnot, and I’ve recently opened a small position in the bank.
