The Glencore (LSE: GLEN) share price has had a tough time, as the slowing Chinese economy hits commodity stocks across the board. The FTSE 100 miner’s stock is down 5.56% over one year and 22.17% over two.
Natural resources is a famously cyclical sector, and right now it’s out of favour. During the glory years of the Chinese economic miracle, when Beijing reported double-digit growth year after year, the country consumed 60% of global metals and minerals production.
Can this FTSE 100 stock bounce back?
With the country slowing sharply and repeated stimulus packages falling short, demand remains in the doldrums. Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has boosted US demand, but Europe is struggling.
I like buying out-of-favour stocks and sought to take advantage of Glencore’s troubles by purchasing its shares twice last year. In July 2023 I paid 472.6p per share and averaged down three months later at 428.9p.
With the shares since slumping to 408p I’m down 10% on my stake. In one respect, that’s neither here nor there. I buy stocks with a long-term view, with the aiming of holding for a minimum five to 10 years, and ideally, decades. Short-term setbacks don’t matter.
It’s particularly important to be patient when deliberately targeting underperforming stocks, as I’ve been doing. Turning a business Around is not an overnight job – although a good old-fashioned commoditie boom would help, or better still, a commodity super-cycle.
First-half group adjusted EBITDA earnings fell 33% to $6.3bn, “against the backdrop of lower average prices for many of our key commodities during the period, particularly thermal coal”, as the board put it.
It still has bags of dividend potential
The good news is that Glencore is still generating healthy amounts of cash, even after funding $2.9bn of net capital expenditure and $1bn of shareholder returns. That allowed it to cut net debt from $4.9bn to $3.6bn in six months.
The board also dangled a carrot in front of investors tempted to bail out, saying that cash generation “augurs well for potential top-up shareholder returns, above our base cash distribution, in February 2025”.
If I needed an incentive to hang on during the current down cycle, that would be it, but I don’t. Glencore shares look decent value today, with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 12. The 15 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts have set a median target of 555p.
If correct, that would mark a 23.59% increase on today’s price. That’s something else to look forward to. Forecasts aren’t guaranteed, of course, and we probably need a global economy for Glencore to boom.
The trailing yield is now a lowly just 2.47%, down from more than 5% when I bought the stock. So I’m hoping the board really does come through with those “top-up shareholder returns” in February.
I’m not hugely optimistic but there’s no way I’m selling. When stocks recover, they tend to do so out of the blue. In the interim, patience is required. Also, it makes no sense to sell a cyclical stock when it’s down. I won’t buy more Glencore shares – I have a big enough holding – but I’m sticking this one out. Better days should come.
