Back in the day, one of the attractions of holding shares in British Gas owner Centrica (LSE: CNA) was its dividend. Thanks to the profitability of the company’s business with its large installed user base, the dividend was juicy. Today the company trades as a penny share. But eight years ago the annual dividend was over 17p per share.
That was later cut to 12p per share before being abandoned altogether during the pandemic. But with Centrica seeing a strong business recovery, could the payout be making a comeback soon?
Centrica business recovery
The business’s performance last year suggests that Centrica may finally have turned a corner in its road back to business health. Statutory earnings attributable to shareholders from ongoing businesses jumped to £586m from a prior year loss. That meant statutory basic earnings per share came in at 10p. At the current Centrica share price, the price-to-earnings ratio is under eight. That looks cheap to me.
The company has streamlined its business and sold off sizeable assets. That brings some risk of concentration – Centrica remains heavily exposed to the UK gas market. That means it can suffer if gas prices crash. I also see longer-term risks of gas demand falling as alternative energy sources become more widely used.
But the sales have also helped Centrica in ways I think could make it more attractive for my portfolio. Management should now be more focused, something that I think has been a struggle for the business before, especially when it comes to dealing with retail customer complaints. Crucially, the sale proceeds and business performance mean the balance sheet is now in much better condition then a couple of years ago. The firm ended last year with £700m in net cash, compared to net debt of £3bn just 12 months previously.
Centrica dividend prospects
With those sorts of earnings, I reckon the company could afford to bring back its dividend at the moment. Not only have earnings returned to a substantial level, so has free cash flow. Last year it came in at £1.2bn from the company’s continuing operations.
So, why has the dividend not already been restored? I do not think there is a compelling reason frankly. The company pointed to regular pension negotiations that are due to conclude in the next couple of months and said that it “should soon be in a position to restart paying a dividend”. That at least suggests that it could reintroduce the dividend, perhaps later this year.
But I suspect the dividend may not be restored at its pre-pandemic level. Asset sales mean future earnings may not match previous ones. On top of that, current management does not exactly seem enthusiastic about restoring the dividend.
My next move on Centrica
Being a Centrica shareholder, February’s final results announcement struck me as a missed opportunity. The company is earnings lots of money and generating sizeable free cash flows. I see no compelling reason to delay the restoration of dividends.
The Centrica share price has grown 37% in the past year and the dividend outlook is less attractive than it was a few years ago. For that reason I am considering selling my Centrica shares to invest in what I regard as a more reliable passive income pick.
