Why I think NIO stock could continue to fall

Rupert Hargreaves explains why he thinks NIO stock will remain volatile as the regulatory environment for Chinese equities stays uncertain.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Electric cars charging in station

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

NIO (NYSE: NIO) stock has been a difficult investment to own over the past 12 months. Indeed, shares in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) producer have declined by around 65% over the past year.

Year-to-date, shares in the company have fallen by around 50%.

However, NIO stock is also incredibly volatile, which I believe reflects shaky investor sentiment towards the business.

Cautious about investing

I think it is quite easy to understand why some investors may be cautious about investing in this company.

for one, the business is a revolutionary EV enterprise. It has developed a system of swapping out batteries in its cars, allowing consumers to drive for longer without having to wait to recharge.

It is also looking to more than double production over the next two years. With the backing of one of China’s largest car producers, which is majority-owned by the government, the firm has the resources and the connections needed to drive this expansion.

As the Chinese EV market is still in its infancy, I think the enterprise has tremendous potential to capitalise on the growth of the market over the next 10 years, or so. As long as the company continues to invest in its product and development, I think the sky is really the limit for this business.

Nevertheless, I cannot ignore the challenges facing the company today. The EV space is incredibly competitive, and it is only becoming more so. The corporation will have to work flat out to maintain its market share.

NIO stock delisting 

On top of this, regulators in China and the US are threatening to clamp down on Chinese companies listed in New York.

This is probably the most considerable risk to NIO stock. It could be one of the main reasons why investor sentiment towards the business is so shaky.

Indeed, it will not take much for policymakers to change their view of the business. And it is impossible for me to say how much the enterprise could be worth in this situation.

If it is not allowed to trade in New York, the stock could fall to zero. Clearly, that is not a situation any investor ever wants to face.

However, I think policymakers will try and avoid this worst-case scenario. But we cannot rule anything out. And considering these factors, while I believe the business does own some great technology and has tremendous growth potential, I think the stock will remain volatile.

The bottom line 

What’s more, I also think it is likely that investors will continue to sell the business until there is more clarity around the regulatory situation. This could be years before sentiment improves.

As such, I am not a buyer of the stock today. I think there are plenty of other companies in the EV space that would make better additions to my portfolio, considering all of the risks outlined above.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

Here’s how I’d aim for a ton of passive income from £20k in an ISA

To get the best passive income from an ISA, I think we need to balance risk with the potential rewards.…

Read more »

Abstract bull climbing indicators on stock chart
Investing Articles

2 FTSE 100 stocks I’d buy as the blue-chip index hits record highs

This Fool takes a look at a pair of quality FTSE 100 stocks that appear well-positioned for future gains, despite…

Read more »

Satellite on planet background
Small-Cap Shares

Here’s why AIM stock Filtronic is up 44% today

The share price of AIM stock Filtronic has surged on the back of some big news in relation to its…

Read more »

Bus waiting in front of the London Stock Exchange on a sunny day.
Investing Articles

At a record high, there can still be bargain FTSE 100 shares to buy!

The FTSE 100 closed at a new all-time high this week. Our writer explains why there might still be bargain…

Read more »

Asian man looking concerned while studying paperwork at his desk in an office
Investing Articles

After profits plunge 28%, should investors consider buying Lloyds shares?

Lloyds has seen its shares wobble following the release of its latest results. But is this a chance for investors…

Read more »

Abstract bull climbing indicators on stock chart
Investing Articles

Something’s changed in a good way for Reckitt in Q1, and the share price may be about to take off

With the Reckitt share price near 4,475p, is this a no-brainer stock? This long-time Fool takes a closer look at…

Read more »

Investor looking at stock graph on a tablet with their finger hovering over the Buy button
Investing Articles

This new boost in assets might just get the abrdn share price moving again

The abrdn share price has lost half its value in the past five years. But with investor confidence returning, are…

Read more »

Young Black man sat in front of laptop while wearing headphones
Investing Articles

As revenues rise 8%, is the Croda International share price set to bounce back?

The latest update from Croda International indicates that sales are starting to recover from the end of 2023, so is…

Read more »