Why I think NIO stock could continue to fall

Rupert Hargreaves explains why he thinks NIO stock will remain volatile as the regulatory environment for Chinese equities stays uncertain.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Electric cars charging in station

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

NIO (NYSE: NIO) stock has been a difficult investment to own over the past 12 months. Indeed, shares in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) producer have declined by around 65% over the past year.

Year-to-date, shares in the company have fallen by around 50%.

However, NIO stock is also incredibly volatile, which I believe reflects shaky investor sentiment towards the business.

Cautious about investing

I think it is quite easy to understand why some investors may be cautious about investing in this company.

for one, the business is a revolutionary EV enterprise. It has developed a system of swapping out batteries in its cars, allowing consumers to drive for longer without having to wait to recharge.

It is also looking to more than double production over the next two years. With the backing of one of China’s largest car producers, which is majority-owned by the government, the firm has the resources and the connections needed to drive this expansion.

As the Chinese EV market is still in its infancy, I think the enterprise has tremendous potential to capitalise on the growth of the market over the next 10 years, or so. As long as the company continues to invest in its product and development, I think the sky is really the limit for this business.

Nevertheless, I cannot ignore the challenges facing the company today. The EV space is incredibly competitive, and it is only becoming more so. The corporation will have to work flat out to maintain its market share.

NIO stock delisting 

On top of this, regulators in China and the US are threatening to clamp down on Chinese companies listed in New York.

This is probably the most considerable risk to NIO stock. It could be one of the main reasons why investor sentiment towards the business is so shaky.

Indeed, it will not take much for policymakers to change their view of the business. And it is impossible for me to say how much the enterprise could be worth in this situation.

If it is not allowed to trade in New York, the stock could fall to zero. Clearly, that is not a situation any investor ever wants to face.

However, I think policymakers will try and avoid this worst-case scenario. But we cannot rule anything out. And considering these factors, while I believe the business does own some great technology and has tremendous growth potential, I think the stock will remain volatile.

The bottom line 

What’s more, I also think it is likely that investors will continue to sell the business until there is more clarity around the regulatory situation. This could be years before sentiment improves.

As such, I am not a buyer of the stock today. I think there are plenty of other companies in the EV space that would make better additions to my portfolio, considering all of the risks outlined above.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

A young woman sitting on a couch looking at a book in a quiet library space.
Investing Articles

5 steps to start buying shares this week with just £500

Christopher Ruane sets out the handful of steps a stock market newbie could follow to put £500 to work and…

Read more »

Investor looking at stock graph on a tablet with their finger hovering over the Buy button
Investing Articles

3 cheap near-penny stocks to consider buying right now

Looking for penny stocks, I keep finding shares that just sit outside the usual strict definition. But I think these…

Read more »

ISA coins
Investing Articles

Here’s a FTSE 100 dividend share and a surging ETF to consider in an ISA right now!

I think this FTSE 100 dividend share and exchange-traded fund (ETF) are worth a close look for a Stocks and…

Read more »

Young Asian woman with head in hands at her desk
Investing Articles

Investors who sold out of the stock market in April just missed a ‘face-ripping’ rally

The stock market’s just produced one of the most powerful short-term rallies in decades. So anyone who bailed out has…

Read more »

happy senior couple using a laptop in their living room to look at their financial budgets
Investing Articles

Prediction: this FTSE 250 stock could bounce back on Tuesday

Greggs has been one of the FTSE 250’s worst-performing stocks of 2025. But could that be about to change with…

Read more »

Pink 3D image of the numbers '2025' growing in size
Investing Articles

This FTSE 100 dividend superstar is up 18% in a month – time to consider buying?

Harvey Jones picks out a FTSE 100 dividend company that has been struggling in recent years, but has delivered a…

Read more »

ISA Individual Savings Account
Investing Articles

This £20,000 Stocks and Shares ISA could generate passive income of £1,500 in year 1

Our writer believes investing in the FTSE 100 via an ISA is a great way of creating an additional income…

Read more »

Shot of an young mixed-race woman using her cellphone while out cycling through the city
Investing Articles

Dividend yields up to 9.1%! Here are 3 ETFs to consider for a huge passive income

These high-yield exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are worth serious consideration from long-term passive income investors. Here's why.

Read more »