Why I think NIO stock could continue to fall

Rupert Hargreaves explains why he thinks NIO stock will remain volatile as the regulatory environment for Chinese equities stays uncertain.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Electric cars charging in station

Image source: Getty Images

NIO (NYSE: NIO) stock has been a difficult investment to own over the past 12 months. Indeed, shares in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) producer have declined by around 65% over the past year.

Year-to-date, shares in the company have fallen by around 50%.

However, NIO stock is also incredibly volatile, which I believe reflects shaky investor sentiment towards the business.

Cautious about investing

I think it is quite easy to understand why some investors may be cautious about investing in this company.

for one, the business is a revolutionary EV enterprise. It has developed a system of swapping out batteries in its cars, allowing consumers to drive for longer without having to wait to recharge.

It is also looking to more than double production over the next two years. With the backing of one of China’s largest car producers, which is majority-owned by the government, the firm has the resources and the connections needed to drive this expansion.

As the Chinese EV market is still in its infancy, I think the enterprise has tremendous potential to capitalise on the growth of the market over the next 10 years, or so. As long as the company continues to invest in its product and development, I think the sky is really the limit for this business.

Nevertheless, I cannot ignore the challenges facing the company today. The EV space is incredibly competitive, and it is only becoming more so. The corporation will have to work flat out to maintain its market share.

NIO stock delisting 

On top of this, regulators in China and the US are threatening to clamp down on Chinese companies listed in New York.

This is probably the most considerable risk to NIO stock. It could be one of the main reasons why investor sentiment towards the business is so shaky.

Indeed, it will not take much for policymakers to change their view of the business. And it is impossible for me to say how much the enterprise could be worth in this situation.

If it is not allowed to trade in New York, the stock could fall to zero. Clearly, that is not a situation any investor ever wants to face.

However, I think policymakers will try and avoid this worst-case scenario. But we cannot rule anything out. And considering these factors, while I believe the business does own some great technology and has tremendous growth potential, I think the stock will remain volatile.

The bottom line 

What’s more, I also think it is likely that investors will continue to sell the business until there is more clarity around the regulatory situation. This could be years before sentiment improves.

As such, I am not a buyer of the stock today. I think there are plenty of other companies in the EV space that would make better additions to my portfolio, considering all of the risks outlined above.

Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Businessman hand stacking up arrow on wooden block cubes
Investing Articles

Could Rolls-Royce shares double again in 2026?

Rolls-Royce shares are developing a curious habit of doubling in value inside a year. Could they pull it off once…

Read more »

Santa Clara offices of NVIDIA
Investing Articles

Could Greggs shares outperform Nvidia in the coming 5 years?

Comparing the performance of Greggs shares and Nvidia stock in recent years is night and day. But what might happen…

Read more »

Two female adult friends walking through the city streets at Christmas. They are talking and smiling as they do some Christmas shopping.
Investing Articles

2 insanely cheap shares to consider buying today

Harvey Jones loves going shopping for cheap shares and picks out two FTSE 100 stocks that are potentially undervalued despite…

Read more »

Businessman with tablet, waiting at the train station platform
Investing Articles

Retire early? I’ve just bought 2 new ‘moonshot’ growth stocks for my ISA

These growth stocks are extremely risky investments. However, taking a five-year view, Edward Sheldon sees enormous potential.

Read more »

Rear view image depicting a senior man in his 70s sitting on a bench leading down to the iconic Seven Sisters cliffs on the coastline of East Sussex, UK. The man is wearing casual clothing - blue denim jeans, a red checked shirt, navy blue gilet. The man is having a rest from hiking and his hiking pole is leaning up against the bench.
Investing Articles

How much should a 40-year old put into an empty SIPP to aim for a million by 60?

Over the next 20 years, someone could turn a SIPP with nothing in it today into a seven-figure retirement pot.…

Read more »

Mature black woman at home texting on her cell phone while sitting on the couch
Investing Articles

The 1 question everybody holding Rolls-Royce shares should ask themselves today

Every FTSE 100 investor is wondering where the Rolls-Royce share price goes next. But Harvey Jones highlights a different question…

Read more »

A senior man and his wife holding hands walking up a hill on a footpath looking away from the camera at the view. The fishing village of Polperro is behind them.
Investing Articles

Match the State Pension through buying dividend shares? Here’s what that might cost

If the State Pension seems like it might not go far enough, some forward planning today could potentially help ease…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Check out the worrying Tesco share price forecast

Harvey Jones questions whether the Tesco share price can push higher from here. A quick look at broker predictions only…

Read more »