Why I think NIO stock could continue to fall

Rupert Hargreaves explains why he thinks NIO stock will remain volatile as the regulatory environment for Chinese equities stays uncertain.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Electric cars charging in station

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

NIO (NYSE: NIO) stock has been a difficult investment to own over the past 12 months. Indeed, shares in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) producer have declined by around 65% over the past year.

Year-to-date, shares in the company have fallen by around 50%.

However, NIO stock is also incredibly volatile, which I believe reflects shaky investor sentiment towards the business.

Cautious about investing

I think it is quite easy to understand why some investors may be cautious about investing in this company.

for one, the business is a revolutionary EV enterprise. It has developed a system of swapping out batteries in its cars, allowing consumers to drive for longer without having to wait to recharge.

It is also looking to more than double production over the next two years. With the backing of one of China’s largest car producers, which is majority-owned by the government, the firm has the resources and the connections needed to drive this expansion.

As the Chinese EV market is still in its infancy, I think the enterprise has tremendous potential to capitalise on the growth of the market over the next 10 years, or so. As long as the company continues to invest in its product and development, I think the sky is really the limit for this business.

Nevertheless, I cannot ignore the challenges facing the company today. The EV space is incredibly competitive, and it is only becoming more so. The corporation will have to work flat out to maintain its market share.

NIO stock delisting 

On top of this, regulators in China and the US are threatening to clamp down on Chinese companies listed in New York.

This is probably the most considerable risk to NIO stock. It could be one of the main reasons why investor sentiment towards the business is so shaky.

Indeed, it will not take much for policymakers to change their view of the business. And it is impossible for me to say how much the enterprise could be worth in this situation.

If it is not allowed to trade in New York, the stock could fall to zero. Clearly, that is not a situation any investor ever wants to face.

However, I think policymakers will try and avoid this worst-case scenario. But we cannot rule anything out. And considering these factors, while I believe the business does own some great technology and has tremendous growth potential, I think the stock will remain volatile.

The bottom line 

What’s more, I also think it is likely that investors will continue to sell the business until there is more clarity around the regulatory situation. This could be years before sentiment improves.

As such, I am not a buyer of the stock today. I think there are plenty of other companies in the EV space that would make better additions to my portfolio, considering all of the risks outlined above.

Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

UK financial background: share prices and stock graph overlaid on an image of the Union Jack
Investing Articles

Get ready for a Rolls-Royce share price crash

Harvey Jones is sitting on a nice juicy profit from the Rolls-Royce share price but he accepts that one piece…

Read more »

Female student sitting at the steps and using laptop
Investing Articles

Here’s how to invest £7,000 in an ISA for a £500 passive income

Ben McPoland picks out a cheap dividend stock from the FTSE 250 that could generate chunky passive income in an…

Read more »

Close-up of a woman holding modern polymer ten, twenty and fifty pound notes.
Investing Articles

Looking for income stocks to buy? 3 things to remember!

Our writer likes a good dividend as much as the next investor. But here's a trio of things he bears…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Prediction: in 12 months the rampant Barclays share price could turn £10,000 into…

Harvey Jones checks out the forecasts for the Barclays share price to see whether the bank can keep smashing the…

Read more »

Businessman hand stacking up arrow on wooden block cubes
Investing Articles

ChatGPT just gave me 4 FTSE 100 ‘hidden gems’

What diamonds in the rough are hiding across the FTSE 100? John Fieldsend asked ChatGPT to see if AI could…

Read more »

Senior woman potting plant in garden at home
Investing Articles

I asked ChatGPT for a FTSE stock that could help me retire early. It said…

Can an AI bot pick out a stock that could allow someone to swap the 9-5 for a life of…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s why new profit guidance just gave the Boohoo share price a 7% boost

The Boohoo Group share price climbed sharply after first-half results, and an upbeat year-end update has given it an extra…

Read more »

Investing Articles

UK growth stocks: a once-in-a-decade chance to get rich?

Harvey Jones sees three good reasons why UK growth stocks could power upwards from here. And he's backing one FTSE…

Read more »