2022 dividend forecasts: HSBC, AstraZeneca, Glencore

How much dividend cash can investors expect to receive in 2022 from HSBC Holdings (LSE: HSBA), Glencore (LSE: GLEN) and AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN)? I’ve been taking a look at the latest dividend forecasts for these FTSE 100 shares. Here’s what I’ve found.

HSBC: I can’t help feeling disappointed

I understand that HSBC was forced by the UK’s financial regulator to cancel its dividend in 2020. Fair enough. But if I owned the shares, I’d be a little disappointed that CEO Noel Quinn has decided to reinstate the payment at roughly half its pre-pandemic level.

Quinn is hoping to use the extra cash to strengthen the bank’s balance sheet and invest in growth opportunities, mostly in Asia. I think it’s a good plan. But I’m not sure it’s enough to tempt me to buy HSBC shares.

Consensus forecast suggest the bank’s dividend will rise from $0.23 to $0.28 per share in 2022, giving HSBC a 2022 forecast yield of 4.7%. That’s above the FTSE 100 average yield of 3.4%. But it’s only just over half the $0.50 per share HSBC paid in 2018.

I’m also struggling with the fact that HSBC shares are worth less than they were 10 or even 20 years ago.

HSBC’s current dividend looks safe to me. But I’m not tempted to buy. I think there are better options elsewhere.

AstraZeneca: dividend growth forecast

Shareholders in FTSE 100 pharma group AstraZeneca have seen the value of their stock double over the last five years. But their dividends have remained flat. That’s pushed the dividend yield on AZN shares down from around 5% in November 2016, to just 2.2% today.

A double bagger is never a bad result. But AstraZeneca used to be a popular pick for income. Can it win back this crown?

The group’s recent performance looks encouraging to me. Profits are rising thanks to new products and debt has started to fall. The latest City forecasts suggest that CEO Pascal Soriot may finally increase the dividend in 2022.

Analysts’ projections suggest earnings will rise by 33% next year, providing support for a modest 4% dividend increase. That would give a dividend yield of 2.3%.

I’d prefer to wait for a market sell-off to provide a better buying opportunity. But I wouldn’t sell AstraZeneca shares if I held them today.

Glencore: a 7% yield?

Mining and trading group Glencore generated an adjusted operating profit of $5.3bn during the first half of 2021. That’s more than the company generated for the whole of 2020.

The group has benefited from strong demand for commodities such as copper and coal since the start of the pandemic. More recently, oil has provided a boost for profits.

I’m encouraged by Glencore’s strong focus on copper. I expect the red metal to benefit from consistent strong demand over the next decade, due to the growth of renewable energy and electric transport.

City brokers also seem to have a positive view. They expect Glencore to report record profits of $8.8bn in 2022, together with a record dividend of $0.39 per share. That would give a 7.9% yield at current levels.

However, 2022 is expected to be the peak. Analysts expect Glencore’s profits and dividend to fall in 2023. I share this view — mining is cyclical and high prices rarely last forever. If I was buying Glencore today, I’d start small and build gradually.