The last time I wrote about Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR), its share price was just at about 100p. And to me, it looked like it was ready to dip more in the short term. I was wrong. It has been consistently above the mark since.
But can it continue to stay there? I think there are reasons that both favour the trend and that can send its share price tumbling below 100p again.
Supportive environment for the Rolls-Royce share price
#1. Stock markets are buoyant: The fact that the stock markets in general are rising is a good sign. The FTSE 100 index has been making steady gains over time, even though on a day-to-day basis it really looks like it is going nowhere.
This shows up in individual shares’ prices too, and Rolls-Royce is one of them. In much of the past year, its price has either remained around the 100p mark or just a bit below it. It is only during the months right before the stock market rally of November that it slid sharply.
#2. Aviation is in for better times: The outlook for the sector is also improving. Aviation has been one of the worst impacted industries during the pandemic. Rolls-Royce derives a large part of its revenue from supply of aircraft engines. So, it was impacted too.
In fact, it still is. Even while much of the economy has reopened, air travel still remains limited. But as vaccinations proceed at speed, it is only a matter of time before travel becomes commonplace once again. Its share price has doubled since November, in anticipation.
Pandemic and prices could play spoilsport
#1. Persistent uncertainty: However, when considering buying the stock, I also need to bear in mind that we never know what new twist in the corona tale awaits. New variants have slowed down the bounce back. And Rolls-Royce itself is cautious in providing an outlook going by the uncertainty that exists.
#2. Oil price rise: Moreover, air travel may remain weak even after it is allowed. Potential travellers could choose to be cautious for some time. Oil prices are rising. And crude oil may even touch $100 a barrel this year. This would push up travel prices. Coming out of a year of economic uncertainty, furloughs, and government support, it could be a put off.
Can the Rolls-Royce share price stay above 100p?
Since Rolls-Royce is sensitive to news flow at this time, its share price can react a lot. It may even plunge significantly if there are any untoward developments. Still, I am optimistic that it may not happen. In the past year, its share price has risen by only 8%. This means that it was not significantly lower than 100p even then. As I was saying earlier, it did slide down for a few months, but was soon back up.
I think the real question now is whether it can continue rising over time. I maintain that it can. But I am waiting for a real turnaround before considering buying the stock for my portfolio.
