The fall of Carillion has created a buying opportunity in these 3 stocks

G A Chester discusses three stocks trading at multi-year lows following the collapse of Carillion (LON:CLLN).

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Waves from the collapse of construction and facilities management giant Carillion are buffeting many other companies within, or exposed to, the industry. Three FTSE 250 firms that are investors in infrastructure assets have been among those impacted. The shares of HICL Infrastructure Company (LSE: HICL), International Public Partnerships (LSE: INPP) and John Laing Infrastructure Fund (LSE: JLIF) ended last week at multi-year lows.

I believe the market has overreacted in the case of this trio of companies and that now could be a great opportunity to buy a slice of what I view as very attractive businesses for long-term investors.

Discount prices

The shares of HICL, INPP and JLIF are 20%, 12% and 19% below their 52-week highs and down 11%, 7% and 9% from the day before Carillion went into liquidation on 15 January. The table below shows net asset value (NAV) and dividend data for the three firms.

  Market cap Last reported NAV per share Share price Premium/(discount) to NAV Dividend Yield
HICL £2.5bn 151.6p 141.1p (6.9)% 7.75p 5.5%
INPP £2.1bn 144.7p 147.4p 1.9% 6.735p 4.6%
JLIF £1.1bn 123.1p 113.4p (7.9)% 6.96p 6.1%

As you can see, HICL and JLIF are now trading at discounts to NAV and INPP at a small premium. All three companies offer generous dividend yields, based on their trailing 12-month payouts. All three have also issued updates since Carillion’s collapse. How do these bear on their valuations?

The Carillion factor

HICL: Carillion provided facilities management (FM) to 10 (14% by value) of the 116 projects HICL is invested in. It was not the contractor on any of HICL’s current construction projects, but there are five projects where Carillion was the original construction contractor and, at the time of the liquidation, held responsibility for latent defect risk. Based on current information, HICL estimates the adverse impact of the Carillion factor to be 2.8p of NAV per share (1.8%).

INPP: Carillion provided FM to 3% by value of the 127 projects INPP is invested in. It currently anticipates the adverse impact to be a negligible 0.01p of NAV per share.

JLIF: Carillion provided facilities management to nine (8.5% by value) of the 63 projects HICL is invested in. It was not the contractor on any of JLIF’s current construction projects but there is one project where Carillion was the original construction contractor and held responsibility for latent defect risk. Based on current information, JLIF estimates an adverse impact on NAV of £3m, which I calculate as 0.3p a share per share (1.8%).

Storm in a teacup?

All three companies had been aware of the issues affecting the construction and FM  giant for some time and had made contingency plans in the event of liquidation, which they’re now implementing. Principally, this concerns the appointment of replacement facilities managers.

HICL faces the biggest impact on its NAV (albeit not very big at all) and I’m encouraged by two factors to think we’re looking at something of a storm in a teacup. HICL has said: “The Board is confident that this analysis does not change the dividend guidance that the Company has published for the current financial year and the two subsequent financial years.” The other encouraging thing is that last Friday two directors and two senior managers bought shares totalling about £250,000.

With all three companies’ shares trading well down from their 52-week highs and sporting generous dividend yields, I believe now could be a good time to buy.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

G A Chester has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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