Fears over a severe cooldown in the British housing market have played havoc with the Travis Perkins (LSE: TPK) share price since the EU referendum. The construction materials seller is now trading at a 28% discount to levels enjoyed on the eve of the vote.
And appetite for the stock hasn’t improved on Wednesday following the release of a less-than-reassuring trading update – Travis Perkins was last 8% down on the day.
The FTSE 100 retailer advised that like-for-like sales rose 2% during July-September, representing a significant slowdown in recent weeks – underlying revenues advanced 2.7% in the year to date.
Worryingly, chief executive John Carter commented that “it is still too early to predict customer demand in 2017 with certainty,” leading Travis Perkins to close 30 of its stores and undertake other cost-cutting exercises including the closure of 10 distribution centres.
Housing data since the EU referendum remains very patchy, for want of a better expression. But expert commentary has shown a pick-up in the market more recently as homebuyer jitters concerning the post-EU landscape seem to have moderated.
One survey released this week by the ONS showed average home values leapt 8.4% in August, speeding up from growth of 8% in July. And this follows a RICS report last week advising that “the market does now appear to be settling down following the significant headwinds encountered through the spring and summer.”
The City expects earnings at Travis Perkins to edge 1% higher in 2016, although a 1% decline is pencilled-in for 2017.
Still, these figures create P/E ratings of 11 times and 11.1 times, some way below the Footsie average of 15 times. And stout dividend yields of 3.4% and 3.6% for this year and next provide an added bonus.
I reckon these readings are fair value despite the firm’s current travails, and I think Travis Perkins — assisted by its five-year network expansion programme — remains a great bet for strong long-term earnings growth.
In rude health
Healthcare play Mediclinic International (LSE: MDC) has also seen investor demand fall through the floor in recent weeks, the firm’s share value ducking 17% during the past three months.
Mediclinic spooked investors at the start of September by warning that competition in Abu Dhabi for quality medical personnel, combined with delayed unit expansion and regulatory changes to healthcare insurance, are expected to hamper revenues growth in the near term. Indeed, “low-to-mid-single-digit revenue growth” from the Middle East is now expected in 2016, the company advised.
But I believe Mediclinic’s huge presence in the exciting growth markets of South Africa and the United Arab Emirates promises to underpin strong long-term growth.
And my bullish take is shared by the Square Mile, which expects earnings to shoot 16% and 18% higher in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
Subsequent P/E ratios of 21 times and 17.8 times may be heady on paper. But I reckon exploding healthcare demand in its key regions makes Mediclinic a terrific growth bet worthy of these elevated multiples.
