While the FTSE100 isn’t that far off it’s all-time high, there are many stocks in the index that haven’t performed well of late. Let’s look at two large-cap fallers and examine the outlook for the future.
Aviva
It hasn’t been a great 18 months for Aviva (LSE: AV) with the insurer’s share price falling from around 570p in March last year to around 430p today on the back of Solvency II regulation concerns and Brexit uncertainties. Is now the time to buy or are there further falls on the cards?
Personally, I believe Aviva offers an interesting risk/reward skew at the current share price.
The insurer said in late June that Britain’s decision to leave the EU would have no “significant operational impact on the company” and with the stock now trading on a P/E ratio of 9.7 times next year’s earnings with a yield of 4.9%, it looks to me like one of the bargains of the Footsie.
City analysts forecast earnings per share of 45p and 48p for FY2016 and FY2017, up from 37p for FY2015, and the dividend is forecast to grow from 21p last year to 23p and 25p for the next two years. Aviva is targeting a 50% dividend payout ratio for 2017 and if management can deliver, it could be the catalyst for a share price rerating.
While we can’t rule out further falls in the share price if Brexit fears reignite market turbulence, I believe Aviva offers value at the current share price.
EasyJet
Shares in low cost airline easyJet (LSE: EZJ) have endured a remarkable fall in the last 18 months. EasyJet enjoyed a strong period of share price momentum between 2011 and 2015, rising from around 300p to over 1,900p. However, after drifting lower earlier this year, the stock was pummelled following the Brexit result, and shares can now be bought for just over 1,000p.
At the current price, easyJet trades on a P/E ratio of just 10 times next year’s earnings with a yield of over 5%. Those figures certainly sound enticing but are there further falls to come from the airline?
Make no mistake, Brexit has created a great deal of uncertainty for easyJet, and brokers have been quick to downgrade the stock. With 47% of sales coming from the UK, easyJet is heavily exposed to UK outbound tourism and with the pound having collapsed post-Brexit vote, questions arise as to whether Brits will still travel to Europe in the same numbers. There are also issues such as fly rights, EU licences and alternative headquarters that will need to be sorted.
Questions are also being asked as to whether easyJet can continue to steal short-haul market share from struggling flag carriers IAG, Air France-KLM and Lufthansa. All three flag carriers now have their own low cost carrier subsidiaries and are back in expansion mode. Will they capture back a portion of the lucrative business traveller market?
Throw in further pressure from terrorism, strikes and volatile fuel prices, and it’s fair to say visibility is clouded for easyJet.
City analysts forecast earnings per share of £1.07 for FY2016, down from £1.39 in FY2015 and these earnings forecasts are most likely already reflected in the share price. While easyJet certainly looks tempting after such a dramatic fall, with so much uncertainty surrounding the airline, I don’t think we can rule out further falls.
