FTSE 100 tobacco giant British American Tobacco (LSE: BATS) (NYSE: BTI.US) is due to announce its annual results on Wednesday this coming week (31 July).
At the time of writing, BAT’s shares are trading at 3,446p — up 8% from six months ago compared with a 6% rise for the Footsie.
How will BAT’s business have performed in the first half compared with last year’s first half? And will the company be on track to meet analyst consensus forecasts for this year’s key full-year numbers? Here’s your cut-out-and-check results table!
| H1 2012 | FY 2012 | H1 2013 | Forecast FY 2013 |
Forecast FY growth |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | £7.5bn | £15.2bn | ? | £15.6bn | +3% |
| Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) | 102.9p | 208.6p | ? | 223.6p | +7% |
| Dividend per share | 42.2p | 134.9 | ? | 145p | +7% |
Revenue
Statutory revenue for 2012 was down by 1% on the previous year due to adverse currency exchange rates. At constant rates revenue was up 4%.
Exchange rates continued to be unfavourable — to a somewhat lesser degree — during the first quarter of 2013, with BAT posting revenue growth of 1% (5% at constant exchange rates). The Q1 results were announced towards the end of April, and management said: “If current exchange rates persist for the rest of the year, the currency headwind that adversely impacted the quarter will reverse”.
Analysts are forecasting a 3% rise in statutory revenue for 2013. If H1 goes in line with the full-year forecast, look for half-time revenue of about £7.7bn within next week’s results.
Earnings and dividend
The City experts are expecting to see 7% growth in adjusted EPS for the 2013 full year, bringing EPS up to 223.6p from last year’s 208.6p. If BAT delivers 7% growth in H1, look for EPS for the period at something above 110p.
The analysts see BAT’s dividend increasing to 145p for the full year from last year’s 134.9p — growth at around the same level as earnings. BAT’s policy is to distribute 65% of earnings as dividends, and the analyst forecasts for EPS and dividend per share are bang in line with that policy. Shareholders should be looking for an interim payout in excess of 45p within next week’s H1 results.
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> G A Chester does not own any shares mentioned in this article.
