Today I’ll be taking a closer look at mining giant BHP Billiton (LSE: BHP), satellite communications provider Inmarsat (LSE: ISAT) and Primark owner Associated British Foods (LSE: ABF). Should you be adding any of these to your portfolio?
Commodities carnage
Like many other commodities players, mining giant BHP Billiton has suffered terribly as a result of the commodities crash, with its share price recently sinking to its lowest level in over a decade. Interim results revealed a sad story, with revenue shrinking 37% to $15.71bn, and an operating loss of $6bn.
So is the future looking any better? Analysts are talking about a massive 92% fall in earnings for the full year to 30 June, with a strong bounce next year estimated at 284%. Much will depend on the price of iron ore, oil and other commodities that BHP trades.
The poor performance has led to the dividend being cut drastically, with 25.87p per share forecast for this year, falling to 21.56p for 2017, offering prospective yields of 3.3 and 2.8%, respectively. A far cry from the 7% yield for 2014/15.
BHP trades on a ridiculous forward P/E ratio of 105 for this year, falling to 27 for the year ending 30 June 2017. This is a very risky mining play, with only a modest dividend, and a very demanding valuation. Investors would have to be very brave or very contrarian to be tempted by BHP.
Out of this world?
Satellite communications provider Inmarsat reported a 17% drop in underlying earnings last month when it announced its results for the year ending 31 December 2015. Revenues remained flat however, at just under $1.3bn. The company attributed much of this to weak government spending.
The company’s shares have underperformed since the start of the year, and the share price is now 12% lower than three months ago. Do I sense a buying opportunity? Well, there’s certainly something there to tempt income seekers, with dividends forecast at 37.34p for this year, rising to 39.51p for 2017, offering prospective yields of 4% and 4.2%.
Consensus forecasts suggest that earnings will shrink by 21% this year, before bouncing back 20% next year. But I’m not convinced about the valuation. Inmarsat shares trade on 28 times forecast earnings for this year, falling to 23 times for 2018. I think the shares are still overvalued and next year’s growth is already well priced-in.
Continued expansion
Diversified food and retail giant Associated British Foods has seen its shares rise almost 20% over the last 12 months as it continued its expansion of Primark stores in Europe and in the US. The company’s half-year results later this month should give investors a better idea of progress.
As usual, our friends in the Square Mile are well ahead of the game, and although they expect full-year earnings to remain flat for the year to 30 September, they’ve already pencilled-in 18% growth for next year. The company is only paying very modest dividends at the moment, with 36.42p per share forecast for this year, rising to 40.91p next year, offering prospective yields of just 1.1% and 1.3%.
AB Foods’ shares trade on 34 times forecast earnings for this year, falling to 29 times for the year ending 30 September 2017. The shares look overpriced and there’s no meaningful dividend income to compensate.
So this trio of FTSE 100 giants need to do a lot more before they get a buy from me.
