A great pick?

Gold prices have come off the boil after an electrifying start to 2025. At $3,312 per ounce, they’re down almost $200 from the record peaks struck in late April.

My view is that this is a temporary pullback following earlier strength, reflecting in large part heavy profit-taking. So gold stocks like Greatland Resources (LSE:GGP) — which is up 140% so far in 2025 — still demand a close look.

Latest data from the World Gold Council (WGC) suggested that the rotation back into bullion is already under way. Global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added 75 tonnes of material in June, it said, snapping back from the 19-tonne drop in May. Total fund holdings were at levels not seen for 34 months at the end of last month.

Investors can buy simple gold-tracking funds like this to capitalise on a rising metal price. Doing so also eliminates operational dangers that come with owning gold mining stocks. However, other benefits of taking this route are also considerable.

Taking a leveraged approach

When metals values appreciate, they can deliver profits growth that beats the price performance of the underlying metal, thanks to the fact the bulk of their costs are largely fixed.

Greatland has predicted all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of between $2,100 and $2,250 per ounce in 2025. This is already way below the current cost of gold. And I’m optimistic the gap will widen further given the current macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook.

The threat of low economic growth and escalating global conflict, combined with the likelihood of falling interest rates and sustained US dollar weakness, all bode well for yellow metal prices.

My bullishness is shared by a raft of analysts on Wall Street. The boffins at Goldman Sachs, for instance, have predicted gold will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 as ETF investors continue buying and central banks build their bullion holdings.

A long-term star

I believe Greatland could prove a top share to consider beyond just the near term, too. And not just because gold’s multi-year bull run seems to have much more in the tank.

I feel the company’s full control of the Havieron asset in Australia — which contains 8.4m ounces of gold equivalent — could supercharge group profits over the medium-to-long-term. First production is targeted for the second half of 2027, with a definitive feasibility study due by the end of this year.

Investors must be mindful, however, that Greatland’s share price could sharply reverse if the upcoming study fails to meet expectations. This could be due to lower-than-expected production forecasts, higher expected costs, or delays to mine development and maiden output.

But on balance, I think Greatland is a great stock to consider in the current climate, and especially at current prices. Its forward price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.1 sits well inside value territory of 1 and below.

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Catalysts

The catalyst for this rally was Greatland’s December 2024 acquisition of the Telfer gold-copper mine and a 70% stake in the world-class Havieron project in Western Australia. Telfer, a producing mine with substantial stockpiles of ore, has immediately positioned Greatland as a mid-tier gold producer. It also means generating cash flow to fund Havieron’s development.

Havieron itself is a standout asset. It has 8.4m ounces of gold equivalent and some of the lowest projected all-in sustaining costs in the industry. By integrating Telfer’s infrastructure, Greatland is aiming to de-risk Havieron and extend Telfer’s mine life. This creates a dual-asset strategy that has caught the eye of both retail and institutional investors.

Gold prices have played a major role in Greatland Gold’s surge. They’ve risen over 37% year on year and hit all-time highs above $3,400 per ounce in early May 2025. Since January, gold has gained more than 17%, driven by several things including geopolitical tensions and a weaker US dollar.

The valuation

The numbers reflect this transformation. For 2025, Greatland is expected to swing to profitability, with a forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.5. That’s a dramatic improvement from recent years, when the P/E was deeply negative.

Looking ahead, the P/E is expected to fall to 15.1 times in 2026 as earnings ramp up, before rising to 22.1 times in 2027. This may reflect a forecasting error rather than a downturn in earnings towards the end of the period.

The price-to-book ratio is also coming down, forecast at 3.7 times for 2025 and 2.9 times for 2026. That’s below sector averages.

Importantly, Greatland’s financial position is strong, according to the analysts. Net debt is forecast to swing to a net cash position of £247m by June 2025, rising to £377m in 2026, thanks to Telfer’s cash flow and a carefully managed debt facility.

This gives the company breathing room to fund Havieron’s capital-intensive development without the risk of near-term liquidity crunches.

The bottom line

Of course, risks remain. The share price is now well ahead of some analysts’ targets, and the valuation assumes flawless execution at Havieron. Production at Havieron isn’t expected until H2 of 2026, and gold prices could change a lot before then.

Personally, it’s not the type of investment I go for. This is purely because I think there are so many moving parts when investing in mining stocks, and honestly I don’t believe I understand it perfectly.

Nevertheless, I appreciate that the potential rewards are clear. At steady-state, Havieron could generate 258,000 gold-equivalent ounces annually for two decades, while Telfer’s life could be extended through further exploration.

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I’m certain much of this rally reflects the increase in the price of gold. During times of economic uncertainty, investors tend to buy the precious metal as it’s generally perceived to be a reliable store of value and a hedge against inflation.

Over the past 12 months, its price has risen 45%. At $3,391 an ounce, it’s currently not far off its 52-week high.

A huge opportunity

But most of the group’s gold lies deep beneath the earth’s surface and, at the moment, it has no way of selling it.

That’s because Greatland Gold’s biggest asset — the Havieron mine in Western Australia — isn’t yet producing.

Present estimates suggest that it contains 7m ounces of gold and 275,000 tonnes of copper. This makes it the second-largest undeveloped gold project in Australia.

At present prices, these metals have a retail value of over $25bn (£18.45bn).

Undoubtedly, there’s huge potential. However, revenue is not expected to be earned until 2028.

Here and now

In contrast to this, the group’s smaller Telfer project is up and running. In 2025, forecast production is 196-210 thousand ounces of gold and a small quantity of copper.

For comparison, Endeavour Mining’s expected to extract five to six times more from its mines in West Africa in 2025. And yet the FTSE 100 gold producer has a market cap of £5.64bn — ‘only’ 159% more than Greatland Gold’s stock market valuation.

This makes me think that investors are running ahead of themselves.

Lots of uncertainty

When Havieron’s producing at full capacity, I’m sure the group will be profitable and generating large amounts of cash. But we’re not there yet. And the group faces many challenges before the project becomes commercially viable.

In 2028, the gold price may be much lower than it is today. It’s only been regularly above $2,000 since early 2024. I wonder whether the present surge could be an unsustainable bubble. Any softening in demand could have a big impact on Greatland Gold’s share price.

Interestingly, the group has acquired put options to offer downside price protection for a significant proportion of output from Telfer — through until December 2026 – at an average price of A$$4,071 (US$2,634). That’s around 22% lower than today’s spot price. 

Developing mines is also expensive. Although the group has a letter of support from a banking syndicate to provide a debt facility large enough to commercialise Havieron, it’s not legally binding.

The company itself cautions that “the timing of commencement of Havieron gold production remains subject to completion of the Feasibility Study, final investment decision and receipt of required approvals and permits within expected timeframes”.

But the group has ambitious plans to grow further. It’s already talking about expanding operations at Havieron and developing other projects in Australia. To help improve liquidity, it’s seeking a dual listing of its shares in the country.

I reckon if everything goes to plan over the next three years, Greatland Gold will be a very different company to what it is today. But taking a stake now would be too risky for me.

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Considering the market only typically averages an annual return of 8% to 10%, pocketing over 100% in a third of the time is extraordinary. And shareholders are understandably patting themselves on the back. But can this surge be maintained? And could the GGP share price rise even higher?

From exploration to production

Until recently, the investment thesis behind Greatland was its ownership stake in the Havieron project. This is a high-grade copper and gold deposit located in Australia with an estimated 8.4m ounces of gold equivalents ready for extraction.

Assuming the feasibility study comes back positive in the second half of 2025, and there are no construction delays, Havieron is expected to enter commercial production in 2027. Investing early in mining projects is a risky endeavour. But if successful, it can also be immensely rewarding. And this excitement is a big reason why the share price reached record highs in 2020.

Skip ahead to December 2024, management announced that it had completed the acquisition of another gold-copper project called Telfer as well as the remaining stake in Havieron. That’s significant because Telfer is already a working mine. As such, Greatland has officially transitioned from a risky exploration pureplay to a less risky part-producer.

Time to jump in?

With the firm gaining a revenue stream and production volume growth just a few short years away, the risk profile surrounding Greatland Gold has significantly improved. It also helps that gold prices themselves have been steadily rising in the face of geopolitical turmoil, paving the way for explosive profits if prices remain elevated.

As such, the days of massive equity dilution to raise capital might now be in the rearview mirror. So, it’s not too surprising that the average GGP 12-month share price target is close to 20p – around 60% higher than current levels.

That certainly suggests investors should consider buying shares before it’s too late. However, as exciting as this opportunity seems, it’s important not to get carried away. Greatland Gold still remains a risky business to invest in.

The growth expectations from analysts revolve around the Havieron project. And even if all operational activities stay on schedule, there’s no way of knowing where gold prices will be two years from now. If the commodity were to suddenly fall in value, Greatland’s profitability and cash flow would suffer. After all, mining businesses have a lot of fixed costs.

Therefore, with the firm’s valuation tied to uncertain future expectations, this isn’t a business I’m rushing to add to my portfolio despite the explosive potential. But for investors comfortable taking a leap of faith, Greatland Gold might be worth a closer inspection.

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Some of this resulted from a positive reaction to the news that the gold and copper miner has commenced a capital reorganisation. If the proposal is approved by shareholders, it will result in a newly-established parent company being listed on the Australian stock market (ASX). The group will also retain its current status on the UK’s Alternative Investment Market.

The group’s directors claim that Australia is “a natural listing venue for mining companies”. As a consequence, the plan — which is expected to be effective from June — is intended to improve liquidity and generate more investor interest in the stock. In conjunction with the restructuring, the company’s reserved the right to raise additional funds. Although, any rights issue will be restricted to 2.5% of the issued share capital.

What else is happening?

It’s been an eventful few months for the group. In December 2024, it acquired full control of the Telfer and Havieron projects.

The former is a working mine, which means the group’s moved from being a pure exploration company to a part-producer.

However, the latter requires substantial investment before it becomes commercially viable. Fortunately, the group’s entered into a non-binding letter of support to secure a debt facility that will “fund costs and expenses of the construction, development and operation of Havieron, corporate costs and any other expenses until project completion”.

What do I think?

The group’s clearly going in the right direction.

It appears to be fully funded, which means the significant dilution that longstanding shareholders have experienced looks to be a thing of the past.

And when it gets Havieron up and running, the group claims that it will have the second-lowest all-in sustaining cost of any ASX-listed Australian mine. If true, it will be one of the most profitable in the country.

However, I fear the group’s share price performance is becoming increasingly disconnected from its underlying business. And I suspect the recent gold price rally is to blame. Since the start of the year, it’s set a number of new record highs. Global uncertainty is behind this momentum.

Of course, this means Telfer’s output is worth more than previously. And it’s increasing the value of the group’s reserves.

But Haverion isn’t producing yet. Even if everything goes to plan, it won’t be generating revenue until the first half of 2027. Who knows what the price of gold will be in two years’ time?

And to get to this position, the group’s going to face numerous challenges. From an operational perspective, mining is possibly the most difficult industry to get right. This means valuing companies in the sector is difficult, especially ones that aren’t fully commercialised.

A quick look at the price targets of the three brokers covering the stock — 11p, 20p, and 21p — doesn’t help very much. The group’s current share price is 13.9p. To me, this simply reflects the uncertainty of buying shares like these.

Therefore, at the moment, I think Greatland Gold’s stock is one to keep on my watchlist rather than invest in.

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Greatland Gold shares are now up 53% over one month and 108% over the last year. Those are stunning returns. And it’s not hard to see what’s driving them. Gold fever!

The gold price recently smashed through $3,000 an ounce for the first time ever, as nervous investors pile into the world’s ultimate safe haven. It’s up 35% in a year.

Can this stock go higher?

This time, the trigger is Donald Trump’s threatened trade tariffs. Stock indexes have shrugged off crisis after crisis in recent years, but this one is really getting to them.

The greater the uncertainty, the higher Greatland Gold shares climb. But it’s not entirely a play on stock market volatility.

The London-listed company, which has gold and copper projects in Australia, got a further lift from a bullish update on 18 March.

This featured a major upgrade to its mineral resource estimates, following the inclusion of the recently acquired Telfer gold-copper mine.

Greatland Gold now holds group mineral resources totalling 10.2m ounces of gold and 387,000 tonnes of copper, up more than 40%.

There could be more. The company is ramping up drilling, with four rigs already operating and two more on the way.

Managing director Shaun Day hailed the Telfer estimate as an “outstanding result” and “exceptional foundation” for the company’s future.

He added that “the upcoming June 2025 quarter is a very exciting one for Greatland, in which we will report our first full quarter operating results for the March 2025 quarter, give production and costs guidance for 2025, deliver our inaugural Telfer Ore Reserve estimate, and list on the ASX.”

This was an encouraging update, but let’s be clear — what really matters right now is the gold price.

And it’s on an absolute tear.

High hopes, high investment risks

Last month, I called Greatland Gold a “binary” play. When gold soars, Greatland flies. When gold falls, well, guess.

The four analysts covering the stock have a median one-year price target of 18.26p. If correct, that’s another 48% higher than today.

Forecasts are slithery things at the best of times. Given Trump’s mercurial tactics, this one is as slithery and as slippery as they get.

Gold isn’t a one-way bet. It’s already climbed steeply. If Trump pulls back on tariffs, stock markets could rally and gold’s surge could unwind just as quickly.

There’s also the risk that investors start taking profits, triggering a sharp pullback.

Greatland Gold remains a high-risk, high-reward play. Investors should sweep aside past performance figures, and work out exactly what they are buying, and why.

It may be worth considering for a small nugget in a broadly diversified portfolio. But the higher the Greatland Gold share price climbs, the faster it could fall. For consideration by risk-takers only.

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Obviously, they’ve been given a great big shove by the gold price. It’s up 33% in the last 12 months to $2,914 an ounce, and 77% over five years. It’s been boosted by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, along with avid buying by the major central banks, notably China.

Can the precious metal continue to shine?

Established in 2005, Greatland Gold’s a London-listed mining company with gold and copper projects in Australia. In November, it scooped up Newmont’s ageing Telfer gold mine and remaining interest in the Havieron discovery for £380m. Greatland managing director Shaun Day hailed Havieron a “world class… generational” project.

Investors should approach the stock with extreme caution. Smaller mining companies can be highly volatile. Their shares can glister for a while, but don’t always turn into long-term gold.

Yet Greatland continues to power along. An investor who took the plunge at the start of the year will be up a remarkable 48%. That would have turned £10,000 into £14,800.

The sceptic in me says they got lucky. The Greatland Gold price chart’s very choppy, with significant peaks and troughs. Its shares surged 10% in the last week alone.

The four analysts offering one-year share price forecasts are optimistic though. They’ve produced a median target of 15.26p. If correct, that’s an increase of almost 65% from today’s 9.2p. Within those numbers there’s a broad range of views, from 7p to 19p. We’ll see how this pans out.

While gold’s traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, it’s not as simple as that. The price can be highly volatile. Plus there’s no yield. Its main role is to provide balance to a portfolio, providing a comfort blanket when stock markets plunge.

A strangely volatile safe haven

Today, investors are nervous, as President Trump embarks on the biggest reset of geopolitical relations I can remember, while threatened trade tariffs spook markets.

Most expect the Trumpian chaos to continue. But what if he does delivers some kind of peace in Ukraine? Or squeezes concessions out of key trading partners, drops tariff threats and declares victory?

The gold price spike might reverse. If it did, the Greatland Gold share price would inexorably follow. Investors could drift away. The shares may idle for years. I’m not saying that’s going to happen. I simply don’t know. But it’s a risk.

On the other hand, if interest rates finally show meaningful falls, that could boost gold, as the opportunity cost of holding this non-yielding asset shrinks.

Basically, it’s binary. I’d say Greatland Gold is worth considering, but only for investors who know exactly what they’re buying and can stand the risk. And only for a small part of their portfolio.

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Well, part of the reason has to do with soaring gold prices. This surge has reignited interest in gold miners, and Greatland Gold is one that has stood out to investors. The UK-based miner, once a speculative explorer, has pivoted to production after acquiring the Telfer gold-copper mine and a 70% stake in the Havieron project in Western Australia.

The stock is now up 21.5% over the past 12 months, meaning a £10,000 investment made then would now be worth £12,500. Unfortunately, there’s no dividends to add to that. Nonetheless, this rise, coupled with its huge trading volume, suggesting it’s a stock requiring further attention.

A strategic shift

Greatland’s December 2024 acquisition of Telfer and Havieron marked a watershed momentum. Telfer, an operational mine with 11.5m tonnes of run-of-mine ore stockpiles, immediately positions Greatland as a mid-tier producer, generating near-term cash flow to fund Havieron’s development. 

The latter is a world-class deposit with 8.4m ounces of gold equivalent and projected all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $818/oz — among the lowest globally. By integrating Telfer’s infrastructure, Greatland aims to de-risk Havieron’s development while extending Telfer’s mine life through exploration.

This dual-asset strategy has created some cautious optimism among investors and analysts. Analysts note that Telfer’s existing operations could deliver 426,000 gold-equivalent ounces over 15 months, funding Havieron without further equity dilution — a relief for shareholders after several capital raises.

Cheap for a reason

Greatland’s stock valuation reflect its transition. The stock trades at 23.4 times 2025 earnings — reasonable for a growth-focused miner — with a price-to-book ratio of 2.87 times, below sector averages. Analysts’ average price target of 14.33p implies 66% potential from current levels (approximately 8.6p), though targets vary widely (7p to 19p).

However, risks loom. While a debt facility and Telfer’s cash flow mitigate near-term liquidity risks, Havieron’s capital intensity leaves little margin for error. Berenberg highlights “technical execution risks” at Havieron, and maintains a Hold rating despite gold’s rally.

However, Greatland stock is somewhat disconnected from gold’s rally, and that stems from its operational overhang. Unlike pure producers benefiting immediately from higher prices, Greatland’s value hinges on delivering Havieron by 2026 and getting it operational in 2027. Delays or cost overruns could pressure its balance sheet, especially if gold retreats from record highs.

Nonetheless, the math is compelling. At steady-state production, Havieron could generate 258,000 gold-equivalent ounces annually for 20 years, while the company is exploring ways to extend the Telfer mine. Combined, these assets could position Greatland as a top-10 global gold producer by decade’s end.

High risk, high reward

Greatland’s success hinges on flawless execution. For risk-tolerant investors, the stock’s discount to net asset value (NAV) and sector peers presents a compelling bet on gold’s momentum and management’s delivery. Conversely, conservative investors may prefer established miners with less risk attached. Personally, I’ll keep watching from the sidelines. Clearly there’s a lot of potential, but it’s not my usual investment.

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And it looks as though President Trump can claim some of the credit.

That’s because gold prices hit a record high during the morning. The precious metal was pushed higher on news that America’s Commander in Chief wants to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports into the US.

However, at this stage, it’s unclear whether Trump intends to tax exports of gold from Australia to America. That would be a major blow to the company, albeit one that might not last for long. We’ve seen how Canada and Mexico have managed to negotiate temporary reprieves from threatened tariffs.

But some experts believe gold could climb to $3,000 an ounce. During times of crisis, it’s seen by some investors as a ‘safe haven’. Since the start of the year, it’s risen 10%.

A new era

But Greatland Gold only started production on 4 December 2024.

That was the day on which it secured 100% ownership of the Telfer and Havieron mining projects in Australia. The latter’s still in its development stage. However, Telfer was acquired as a going concern.

Since assuming full control of these mines, the company’s share price has risen 24%, from 7.5p to 9.34p. But this masks a particularly volatile period for the stock. On 20 December 2024, its shares were changing hands for 5.75p.

This level of volatility isn’t unusual for these types of stocks. I reckon mining is the most difficult industry in which to operate. There are numerous financial, operational, technical, and environmental risks to which companies in the sector are exposed. And this is often reflected in the topsy-turvy nature of their share prices.

A history lesson

Long-standing shareholders in Greatland Gold will be delighted that the company’s now starting to produce.

Next year will see its tenth anniversary as a listed company. And its journey is a good illustration of the major problem faced by early-stage mining stocks. Namely, the need to keep raising money.

It floated, in July 2006, with 100,550,000 shares in issue. Today, following numerous fund-raising rounds, it has 13,079,294,602 shares in circulation. A 5% holding at IPO would now be equivalent to 0.038%, assuming no further cash was invested.

However, with access to a $470m debt facility, the company should now be able to fund the commercialisation of Havieron — its so-called ‘flagship gold-copper project’ — without having to ask shareholders for more money. And cash flows from Telfer should also help.

Great potential?

Havieron is estimated to contain 8.4Moz (million ounces) of gold equivalent. At a current price of $2,981 (£2,404), this has a retail value of over £20bn. Of course, this doesn’t take into account the cost of getting the metals to the surface.

Endeavour Mining Corporation, the African gold producer, has an all-in sustaining cost of $1,140 (£919) an ounce. This isn’t a like-for-like comparison but it gives some idea of the likely costs involved.

Assuming all goes to plan, the pain of the various rights issues should be a thing of the past. Now, with a market cap of £1.2bn, Greatland Gold could be an excellent growth stock for investors to consider.

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New purchases

A large factor’s been the acquisition spree Greatland’s been on in 2024. This has included buying a majority stake in the Havieron gold-copper project and full ownership of the Telfer gold-copper mine. It has also purchased other associated assets in Western Australia’s Paterson region.

In order to complete this, large scale funding was needed. The business used a range of measures, but one was issuing more shares. Back in September, it raised over £249m in a placement of 5.18bn new shares issued at 4.8p.

Naturally, the share price fell as a result of the issuance. It was trading just below 7p at the time, so putting new shares out at a discount to this caused the stock to fall. Granted, it raised needed cash to fund the project, but it did mean that existing shareholders were diluted.

Looking ahead

When I look at the Havieron gold-copper project, it’s not like it will be generating revenue from day one. In fact, an investor presentation noted that Greatland has received “a letter of support for proposed A$750m (£377m) Havieron project finance debt funding from Tier 1 banking syndicate”.

This debt facility isn’t going to come cheap. Although it’s positive that the company can make use of it to help fund the upcoming expenses, the extensive use of debt isn’t a great sign. The interest payments can eat away at cash flow and become a real headache for a company.

I think that the share price has fallen to reflect some concern about the debt and size of funding needed before this development project can become commercially successful.

Not correlated to gold prices

The rally in the gold price will have done some good to the share price this year. After all, Telfer has the third highest gold processing capacity in Australia. So a high gold price bodes well for any production in the next year for Greatland.

Yet the rally in gold prices will benefit stocks that have existing mines that are producing gold and precious metals right now. Unfortunately, Greatland isn’t in this category.

In the coming year, Greatland shares could rally if it makes good progress on the new projects. If costs come in lower than expected, this would be another positive sign. Further, the new purchases create a much larger scope for revenue further down the line.

But based on my view that gold prices will keep rallying next year, I want to look elsewhere for stocks that I feel could benefit from this.

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