Understanding recent moves

I’m referring to the Big Yellow Group (LSE:BYG). The share price is down 17% over the last month, bringing the loss over the past year to 6%.

The firm is a pretty simple business to understand. It owns and operates self-storage sites across the UK, renting out space to households and businesses that need somewhere to stash anything from furniture to documents. That might not sound exciting, but boring can be beautiful in investing. Self-storage tends to generate recurring income, can benefit from price rises over time, and often sits on valuable property in good locations.

Despite this advantage, the share price has been hit so far this year by a few different factors. One was the unspectacular trading result in January. Closing occupancy was 76.7%, a decrease of 1% from the same time last year. Next came the news that CEO Jim Gibson is set to retire after 23 years in the role. Even though he’ll stay on until July, it’s still big news.

Finally, the company has been hit by a sharp change in interest rate expectations in the UK. Due to the elevated oil price, there are concerns UK inflation is set to soar later this year. This could force interest rates to rise rapidly. Given that the company has debt on the balance sheet and uses loans to finance new projects, the potential for higher financing costs has negatively impacted things.

The long-term view

I believe the share price weakness could create a long-term opportunity. In the 2025 fiscal year, it delivered store revenue growth and increased rents. It also continues to expand, opening a new Slough store and progressing a development pipeline. For me, that matters because self-storage is one of those rare property segments where demand can come from several angles at once. It covers everything from moving house to downsizing, from business stockholding to online retail. You do not need a booming economy for people to need storage.

Another point is valuation. I need to be careful here, because cheap is a subjective term. But the stock is close to 52-week lows on the back of concerns that I don’t think will last long. For example, if we do get a resolution in the Middle East in the coming months, oil prices should fall. This eases concerns about interest rate hikes. Further, an orderly change of CEO over the summer, along with a clear strategy from the new leader, should be a positive for the stock.

Therefore, I think the stock is currently pricing in a worst-case scenario from recent events. Given my views that this won’t play out, I think the share does look cheap, and I feel investors could consider it right now.

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The chatbot isn’t designed to be a stock picker or a portfolio planner, but it’s fun to use and I asked it for five names with a target yield of 5%.

Trusts and property picks

Its first suggestion was City of London Investment Trust. This didn’t surprise me. ChatGPT doesn’t think for itself, it basically synthesises whatever it finds on the web, and this trust is hugely popular among income seekers.

One of the risks is that it can presents out-of-date info as new, and that’s what it does here, saying the yield is 5% when it’s just 4.1%. So I’m already undershooting my income target.

Next up it picked Tritax Big Box, a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns large logistics warehouses. It praised its long leases and strong tenants, which should deliver “visibility of returns”.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice.

ChatGPT says it yields slightly below 5%, when it’s 5.15%, then adds: “The risk is sensitivity to interest rates, because property valuations can come under pressure when borrowing costs rise.” Most analysts now expect interest rates to fall rather than rise, but there you go.

Dividends and growth potential

ChatGPT also included Warehouse REIT, praising its solid distribution record and exposure to smaller industrial units. I see two problems here. First, having two REITs in a five-stock portfolio is a bit much. Second, Warehouse REIT was acquired by Blackstone in a £489m all-cash deal in September. So I couldn’t buy it if I wanted to.

My robot ‘bro moved onto the financial services sector with its next pick, Paragon Banking Group, which yields 4.95%. No arguments there. The shares have sold off lately but look good value with a price-to-earnings ratio of just eight.

Big Yellow Group

The final pick was Big Yellow Group (LSE: BYG), which ChatGPT called “a steady income generator with room to grow”. It’s a self-storage operator with sites in busy areas, and demand has stayed strong as people downsize, relocate or run small businesses needing space. The trailing yield sits a touch below 4%, ChatGPT says. It’s 4.25%, but let’s not quibble.

The P/E ratio is 18.9 though, and my robot buddy rightly noted that “the shares don’t look bargain-bin cheap”. But it says self-storage has held up through different market cycles, “helped by the stickiness of customers and the limited supply of suitable sites”. 

But then ChatGPT lets itself down, by saying the Big Yellow Group share price is down slightly over one year and up 25% over five years. In fact, it’s down 6.6% and 5.8% over those timeframes. I don’t think that yield makes up for such a disappointing run, and I’m surprised the P/E is so high.

I think City of London, Tritax and Paragon are all worth considering, but can’t buy Warehouse REIT and wouldn’t buy Big Yellow Group. If I built my retirement around these five (sorry, four) stocks, I could be in for a bumpy time. As ever, investing demands the human touch, rather than a clunky robotic one.

The post I asked ChatGPT to design a 5% yielding passive income ISA from 5 FTSE 250 shares and it said… appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Indeed, last year it hit an annual turnover of £1bn for the first time as 3% of the population used the service. According to industry data, 9% of people are considering using self-storage in the near future.

Having often used self-storage myself in various work-related moves to different countries I am unsurprised by these figures.

They provide a cost-effective and convenient way to store possessions whether someone is relocating for a while or moving house. Future growth is also predicted to come as small online businesses require more space beyond their initial bases at home.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of tax advice.

Growth outlook

A risk for Big Yellow Group is intensifying competition in the sector as its fast-paced growth continues. This may reduce its revenues and/or squeeze its profit margins.

That said, its 19 May fiscal year 2025 results saw revenue up 2% year on year to £204.5m. And adjusted profit before tax jumped 8% to £115.6m. Adjusted earnings per share increased 3% to 57.8p, with the same rise in total annual dividend (to 46.4p). Revenue is a firm’s total income, while profit/earnings is what remains after expenses have been deducted.

The firm expects new store openings “to make a material contribution to revenue and earnings in the reasonably near future”. Specifically, it has a pipeline of 13 development sites and one replacement store totalling over 1m square feet of space. Ten of these are in, or close to, London.

Consensus analysts’ forecasts are that Big Yellow Group’s earnings will increase by 6% a year to the end of fiscal year 2028.

Are the shares undervalued?

The cornerstone of my assessment of any share’s value is the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.

This highlights where any firm’s stock price should be, as derived from cash flow forecasts for the underlying business.

The DCF for Big Yellow Group shows its shares are 36% undervalued at their current price of £9.12.

Therefore, their fair value is £14.25.

The growing dividend yield bonus

Last year’s 46.4p dividend generates a yield of 5.1% on the present share price.

However, analysts forecast that this payout will increase to 48p in 2026, 50.7p in 2027, and 53p in 2028.

These would give respective dividend yields of 5.3%, 5.6%, and 5.8%. By comparison, the average FTSE 250 yield is 3.6%.

Will I buy the shares?

Aged over 50, I am focused on stocks with a dividend yield of at least 7%. So, this share is not for me right now.

However, I believe its good earnings growth prospects will drive the dividend higher over time. I also think it will do the same to the share price — towards its fair value.

Therefore, I think the stock is well worth the consideration of investors whose portfolios it suits.

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I’ve not yet been fortunate enough to own so much excess stuff that I need a storage unit. However, I do like storing my spare capital in secure stocks. As it turns out, safely wrapping up dusty antiques in big yellow container units is big business — but is it a profitable investment?

Let’s take a closer look

On Monday (18 November), Big Yellow released its interim results for the six months to 30 September. And yet despite what initially looked promising, the shares closed down 1.8%.

The big story here was pre-tax profit, which surged 22% to £145.8m from £119.6m last year. That’s a surprising increase considering revenue only grew a few percentage points and occupancy was down 1%.

So the profit clearly came on the back of property revaluations. That’s a good sign, showing an effective strategy by the company to meet challenging market conditions. It’s further evident in the 2% decline in adjusted pre-tax profit, which excludes valuation gains.

Of course, the biggest thing that typically sways investor opinion is dividends. This is where Big Yellow may have disappointed slightly. The interim dividend was kept flat at 22.6p per share, reflecting a possible lack of confidence in future growth.

With a 3.92% yield, it’s still above the FTSE 250 average of 3.5%. But does it offer any advantage over the multitude of other dividend stocks with a similar yield?

Long-term prospects

Growth-wise, the stock looks pretty decent. Inflation suppressed price growth in 2022 and 2023 but it grew 7.3% in the past year. And in the 10 years prior to Covid, it climbed 270% — an annualised growth of 15% a year. So there’s evidence that it’s a stable and profitable stock during favourable times.

Earnings are forecast to decline at a rate of 1.3% over the next three years, with revenue expected to grow 5.3% a year. The average 12-month forecast expects a 23% increase to £13.46 from today’s price of £10.94. That’s fairly promising.

Risks and competition

A key risk is if occupancy declines further. While it remains up 33% over the past five years, it dropped slightly last year and could fall further by the end of 2024. If a strain on profits leads to a dividend cut, the share price could take a hit.

A key competitor in the UK is Safestore, the country’s largest storage group by number of stores. Big Yellow has a slightly larger market-cap but otherwise they’re close rivals. Using a discounted cash flow model, I see that both are estimated to be trading around 30% below their fair value.

Both pay a similar dividend and have low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. They also have a net margin of around 120%, strong cash flows and sufficient interest coverage. However, Safestore holds almost twice the debt of Big Yellow. It’s a small advantage but one worth noting.

Overall, it appears to operating moderately well but still, I don’t see a hugely compelling reason to invest in the stock at this point. It’s worth me keeping an eye on though.

The post It’s big! It’s yellow! But is this FTSE 250 stock a safe place to store my capital? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice.

Digging into the numbers

According to a discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation, the shares could be trading at around 23.2% below estimates of its fair value. Although there may be more potential in sectors such as technology, I value finding companies with relatively predictable revenues, and a steady path to further growth.

The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at a reasonable 10.2 times, lower than many of its REIT peers, where the average is about 21.2 times. Looking ahead, annual revenues are forecast to grow by 5.34% for the next five years. While not explosive, it’s steady. Of course, no forecast is ever guaranteed. But for my investment style, a small, steady forecast is more comfortable than a highly speculative one, which may disappoint investors.

For income-focused investors, the company offers a dividend yield of 3.61%. With a payout ratio of 81%, the dividend appears to be pretty sustainable. The firm’s dividend track record backs this up, with small but steady increases in the amount paid out in dividends since 2015.

Potential risks

Of course, even in a fairly stable sector, no investment is without risk. Analysts forecast a slight decline in earnings, averaging 1.2% per year for the next three years. This could be slightly off-putting for would-be investors in the near term.

The company has also diluted shareholders in the past year. Although the number of shares outstanding only increased by 6.5%, it’s always something to keep an eye on. However, my primary concern is a lack of diversification in the business. With all revenues coming from the UK market, any downturn in the economy could be a real problem for the business.

Despite these potential risks, management’s strategy looks promising. The company has a pipeline of 13 new self-storage facilities over the coming years. This expansion could drive future revenue growth. Moreover, as urbanisation continues, the demand for self-storage solutions is likely to increase. The firm, with its strong brand and market position, seems well-placed to capitalise on this trend.

Foolish takeaway

So while it might not be the most glamorous stock on the market, the company has several attributes that I think make it a potential winner for value investors. Its potential undervaluation, combined with a solid dividend yield and steady growth prospects, tick a lot of my boxes.

In the end, sometimes the best investments are found not in flashy tech stocks or exciting start-ups, but in steady, reliable businesses consistently delivering value. Big Yellow, with its bright outlook in the self-storage sector, might just be one of those hidden gems in the FTSE 250. I’ll be buying at the next opportunity.

The post This FTSE 250 company looks undervalued to me appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Instead, I look for real estate investment trusts (REITs), which offer me the opportunity of owning just a slice of a large market of rental properties. One of my watchlist favourites is Big Yellow Group (LSE:BYG), which is in the business of storage rental units.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice.

Expanding my dividend portfolio

At the moment, I only own one REIT, which is called Alexandria Real Estate. However, I’m considering expanding my dividend holdings, and I like Big Yellow Group because it’s known as being relatively recession-resistant. Housing markets can rise and fall, but storage tends to stay quite stable (although that’s not guaranteed, of course).

The great thing about developing a passive income portfolio is that the dividends help massively with cash flow. For instance, while flashy tech shares may grow more in price, dividends from the so-called Magnificent Seven aren’t that attractive.

On the other hand, Big Yellow has a juicy dividend yield of 4%. That’s not the highest on the market, but I think we have to remember that it’s quite rare for a good dividend stock to also be climbing steadily in price. This investment has risen nearly 150% over the past 10 years.

Where could the investment be in 12 months?

Analysts say that Big Yellow Group shares could be worth 5% more in 12 months. That means that if I invest now, I could be getting a total return of a 4% yield and 5% price growth, a total of 9% in just a year.

I think there’s a chance that could happen because its price-to-earnings ratio is just 9.5. The industry average is 17, so I think I’m definitely getting a good deal.

Slow and steady wins the race

I’m considering this investment because it offers cash flow in the form of dividends while still offering competitive returns.

Some of the best investors in the world, like Warren Buffett, choose the slower approach to building wealth. It might be tempting to get involved in all the big gains in big tech, like buying a big stake in Nvidia; however, that’s not always the wisest move.

Nvidia has a jaw-dropping price-to-earnings ratio of 63. It also pays essentially no dividend, with a yield of just 0.02%. That makes it prone to volatility,

That’s why sometimes I like to choose less risky shares, and Big Yellow might fit the bill.

The drawbacks

Of course, just because the shares have gone up in price in the past, that doesn’t mean this will continue. Also, while a 9% total return sounds attractive, it’s not what elite investors would consider ‘market-beating’ and it’s not guaranteed. Some investors in the small-cap world get 50% returns a year. Buffett is famous for achieving 20% returns a year in large caps.

Furthermore, the company generates all of its revenue from the UK. The lack of geographic diversification makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in the British economy. To protect from this risk, holding a basket of 10 to 15 different investments in my portfolio is critical.

It’s a possible buy for me

I’m considering buying Big Yellow because I love the stability I feel the company offers. Also, I need to expand my dividend portfolio, so I’m considering buying a small stake soon!

The post Could I effortlessly earn passive income in real estate with Big Yellow Group? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

The reason I’m interested in both is I feel they could soar if a bull market is around the corner. With inflation coming down, and rumours of an impending interest rate cut, a favourable market could be on the horizon.

Here’s my view on both stocks.

Bellway

To say housebuilders have suffered in recent times would be a bit of an understatement. High interest rates, the battle with inflation, and a cost-of-living crisis have impacted completions, sales, and earnings.

I must admit these are still ongoing risks that could hurt performance and investor returns too. A lack of pricing power could hurt Bellway if inflation were to rise again and increase costs.

However, the bull case looks much more clear cut, to me at least. A big part of this is the fact the housing crisis in the UK means there could be plenty of opportunities for Bellway to capitalise. Demand is outstripping supply. Plus, as the population is rising, demand should only increase further.

Digging into some fundamentals, there’s lots to like. Firstly, the shares would offer me a passive income opportunity through a dividend yield of 4.10%. However, I do understand that dividends are never guaranteed.

Next, the shares look decent value for money at present as they trade on a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.

Overall, interest rates coming down and inflation staying under control, combined with the current housing situation in the UK, means Bellway shares could be an opportunity worth considering.

Big Yellow Group

Self-storage provider Big Yellow Group also looks like an interesting opportunity to me too.

Operating in the storage sector, which has experienced huge growth in recent years, things look to be back on the up, after its own issues during the recent malaise.

Plus, it makes a good dividend stock as it’s set up as a real estate investment trust (REIT). This means it must return 90% of profits to shareholders.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice.

A Q1 update released last week piqued my interest. The key headline was a 4% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year. This seems to have sprung from increased demand from domestic customers. Are people getting ready for a burgeoning housing market once more? Do they have more money in their pocket to once more take advantage of self-storage facilities? The update could suggest this.

In addition to this, the business continues to expand, and is looking to open nine new sites in the near future.

From a fundamental view, a dividend yield of 3.8% is also very attractive.

However, from a bearish view, I’m concerned that Big Yellow’s presence is only in the UK. Rivals such as Safestore have access to the European market. If volatility continues in the UK, Big Yellow could find earnings and performance hurt.

Overall, with a potentially better market outlook ahead, I think Big Yellow shares are also worth me considering too.

The post 2 FTSE 250 stocks I reckon could be savvy buys ahead of the next bull market appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Here are two I’ve got on my wishlist to consider buying when cash becomes available.

Confidence improving

Investment platform AJ Bell (LSE: AJB) should fare well as cost pressures ease. The more discretionary income people have left over, the more able they are to think about their long-term financial futures and put it to work in the market.

Based on today’s (18 July) trading update, there are signs this is already happening. Customer numbers rose by 25,000 to 528,000 in the last quarter. Gross and net inflows were also “significantly higher” than over the same period in the previous year.

Too expensive?

The snag is that some investors have seen it coming. AJ Bell shares are now up 40% in 2024. That’s a huge outperformance compared to the 9%-or-so achieved by the FTSE 250 as a whole.

Prior to markets opening, the former changed hands for 21 times forecast earnings — worth bearing in mind if the UK economy hits another sticky patch. In such as situation, anything remotely pricey may be punished. While undoubtedly one of the bigger players, AJ Bell also operates in a crowded market where retaining clients is a constant battle.

Then again, the current valuation’s still far below the company’s average over the last five years (38 times earnings). And a higher-than-usual price tag for a stock like this makes sense considering the chunky margins it consistently makes.

Rising demand

For a bit of diversification, I’d consider adding fellow FTSE 250 member Big Yellow (LSE: ) to my portfolio.

In sharp contrast to the hassle involved in buy-to-let, owning a slice of this real estate investment trust (REIT) would give me fuss-free exposure to rental properties and regular passive income.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice.

Like AJ Bell, the self-storage specialist has also seen a uptick in business recently. Today’s update revealed a 4% rise in revenue in Q1 compared to the same three-month period in 2023.

The biggest driver of demand seems to be from domestic customers. I wonder if a decision by the Bank of England to cut rates (perhaps as soon as next month) could be the catalyst for a revival in the housing market and more business for firms like this as people look to temporarily store their clutter between moves.

But I also like that Big Yellow is positioning itself for growth. Having now received planning permission for nine new sites, the company is “embarking on an intense period of construction activity“.

If that’s not bullish, I don’t know what is!

Great dividends

An investment in Big Yellow seems to have many of the same risks as AJ Bell. Trading at a similar forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, the shares aren’t cheap. I also need to be aware that this mid-cap is dependent on just one market — the UK.

For this reason, I’d make a point of checking that my portfolio also contained companies that made at least some of their money overseas.

But that 3.8% dividend yield is mightily tempting, especially as the company has a good history of hiking payouts in most years.

The post 2 FTSE 250 shares I want to own before the next UK stock market boom appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice.

This month alone, the shares have gained nearly 8.5% in price. Yet I still consider it undervalued and set for long-term growth, and its dividend has a history of regular increases too. The yield is currently 3.7%.

Investing in the UK

One of the drawbacks of investing in Big Yellow Group is that it has no global diversification. All of its operating revenue comes from the UK.

This means that if I have it in my portfolio, I’ll need to fulfil my geographic diversification through other investments. That would help to protect my assets from any macroeconomic challenges that may arise in specific regions.

A closer look at the dividend

There’s a really powerful metric in financial analysis called the ‘yield on cost’. This tells me what the dividend yield of an investment is, based on when I bought it. If I’d bought Big Yellow shares five years ago, my yield on cost would be 5.2% today.

Additionally, management hasn’t instigated any dividend reductions since 2011. The 10-year dividend growth rate is 13.3% annually. What’s even more impressive is that if I’d bought the shares 10 years ago, my dividend yield on cost would be 12.8% today.

I consider the shares undervalued

Big Yellow shares have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 12, which is roughly what it has been as a median over the past decade.

I consider the shares undervalued because the company is delivering healthy growth, including increasing its dividend regularly. Therefore, I think its P/E ratio should be a little higher as a result.

In my opinion, a P/E of around 14 seems fair to me for Big Yellow at the moment. That means there could be roughly a 15% discount available here.

Exposure to property risks

An investment in Big Yellow Group means I’m exposed to property market fluctuations, including consumers’ changing demand, which could affect storage rental pricing. During severe recessionary periods in the UK, it’s not unlikely that the company would reduce its dividend periodically.

In addition, there’s a lot of competition in the space from smaller businesses. There are also big firms like SAFE Storage, which operates in a very similar manner to Big Yellow. However, SAFE also has operations overseas, giving it a headstart in international markets that could be a long-term competitive advantage.

A great dividend investment?

Yet I still like it… a lot. I don’t own many investments that have high dividend payments because, at this stage of my career, I want to focus on growth. However, Big Yellow Group has been on my watchlist for a while, and when it comes time for me to search for residual income from my portfolio structure, I think this company is one of the first I’ll invest in.

The post This passive income stock is up 8% this month alone and still looks undervalued appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice.

One of my favourite sectors of the industry is storage. It’s known to be reliably less prone to recessionary pressures, and one company in particular has caught my eye recently.

UK’s storage leader

Big Yellow Group (LSE:BYG) has lots going for it in my opinion. First of all, consider that its share price has risen over 100% in 10 years. What’s more, it has managed to pull this off with reliably low volatility. That’s rare for companies that pay good dividends. Often, high dividend yields come at the expense of share price growth. Not with this company. Thankfully, I might be able to get the best of both worlds over the long term.

Now I’ve shown the price is on the rise, what about the dividends? Well, Big Yellow has a generous yield of over 4%. While that’s not the highest in the real estate industry, as yields in the sector typically hover around 7%, I think it’s still excellent considering the share price growth I outlined above.

In fact, my preference is that I’d rather have a growing asset value and good dividends than a stagnant asset value with excellent dividends. If a share price isn’t growing, it might be on its way down soon instead.

Is the company good, though?

Assessing price and dividends is all well and good. But the real value of a business comes from its operations. I’ve studied Big Yellow Group for a while now, and I find it very impressive. The firm has 109 locations around the UK, and it’s continuously expanding. I reckon many readers have seen or are customers of the company already. I find myself thinking, with the company’s 4.8-star customer reviews on Trustpilot, maybe the shares are worth the same. After all, it’s customer satisfaction that will drive up the investment price over the long term.

Real estate risks

While it’s clear I love this firm, investing in real estate comes with some risks. For example, all of Big Yellow’s property is in the UK. That means that if there were a housing market crash where the price of properties in the country significantly fell, Big Yellow would be highly vulnerable to losses in asset value. This would negatively impact its balance sheet and likely also affect its income from rents due to changes in rental price expectations from customers.

That’s why I think I’ll hold the firm in my portfolio as part of a well diversified investment strategy. I don’t want all my assets in real estate, nor all in UK revenue streams. But a portion of my money invested in British storage property seems wise and prudent.

Right now, I’m almost certain I’ll buy a stake in this company soon.

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