The company has been receiving its agreed monthly payments, from the Kurdistan Regional Government in payment for oil supplied from its Shaikan development, of $15m gross per month. But there’s been not a penny yet to cover the arrears from before that deal was struck, when the government was taking the oil and not paying for it.

On top of that, Gulf’s debts and interest payments are building up while its cash reserves are dwindling — the company has been keeping afloat thanks to a standstill agreement with creditors that had been extended as far as 1 July.

But then, after the markets had closed on Friday, Gulf Keystone revealed the bad news — the standstill agreement has not been extended, the company doesn’t intend to make its delayed April 2016 coupon payments, and in the absence of the agreement the company will be in default. Gulf reiterated that it’s discussing a possible agreement with some stakeholders that could lead to a restructuring, and that the discussions will continue.

Is it all over?

What does this all mean? Gulf Keystone shares fell 30% in early trading when the markets opened Monday, but at the time of writing the price had recovered half of the drop to 4.1p for a 15% loss on the day. What does the future hold now for Gulf Keystone?

I’m reminded of the disaster that befell Afren last year, when, overtaken by debts it couldn’t service, a debt-for-equity restructuring that would have handed most of the company to its creditors looked to be the only way out. Despite a protest from some shareholders, the deal looked like it would be struck until the last minute, when the state of the company turned out worse than expected and Afren ended up in administration.

Gulf is clearly not in such a dire situation as its Shaikan reserves are large and the oil is pumping away at daily volumes of 40,000 barrels per day. But the company has said its wells might begin to exhibit natural declines later in 2016, and that more capital investment will be needed to maintain current volumes and to raise production to a possible 55,000 barrels per day.

Deal in the pipeline?

Now that the standstill agreement has been suspended, there has to be a possibility that a deal with lenders isn’t far from being inked — I reckon they’d be mad not to come to some sort of agreement given the genuine long-term potential of Shaikan. I see it as inevitable that Gulf will survive — its finances are all in the open and there shouldn’t be any Afren-like skeletons in the closet. The big question is how much of the company will be left for existing shareholder after any debt-for-equity swap takes place.

Considering that Gulf’s debt repayments are set to rocket next year, with $250m due in April 2017 and another $325m due in October, and with its market cap standing at only $40m today, I can’t see there being much left at all. I’ve been bearish on Gulf Keystone as an investment for a long time now, and I certainly wouldn’t be buying in the hope of recovery now.

The post Is it the end of the line for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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But you know what? A fall that small is completely lost within its usual day-to-day volatility, and the UK’s top index hasn’t even given up the gain it made in the week leading up to the vote.

On top of that, some shares are soaring.

Here are three that could be among the year’s big winners:

Pharma boost

Speciality pharmaceuticals developer Indivior (LSE: INDV) enjoyed a boost in early June, when a patents case in the District Court of Delaware went in its favour and confirmed the validity of the firm’s Suboxone patent. On the day, Indivior shares climbed by 36%, and since this year’s low point on 9 February they’re up 71% to 224p.

The downside is that Indivior is expected to see earnings per share dropping both this year and next, which would put the shares on a P/E based on 2017 forecasts of 15.3 — which is only a little behind GlaxoSmithKline‘s multiple of 16.2 for the same year (with EPS growth and a 5.8% dividend on the cards).

In its first full year as a public company after demerger from parent Reckitt Benckiser, chief executive Shaun Thaxter told us “We significantly outperformed our financial plan for the year“. Indivior’s focus on opioid misuse coupled with its pipeline for developing “potentially transformational treatments for addiction” could well see it ending the year on a high.

Services recovering

Services firm Serco (LSE: SRP), which manages labs, education services, leisure centres and prisons, has not done well in recent years, with its shares losing 80% since their high point in July 2013. But we’ve had a 33% recovery since February’s low, to 102p.

Full year results in February provided a boost, with underlying trading profit coming in ahead of guidance at £96m, and although cashflow was negative, an outflow of £16m was better than expected. A rights issue during the year enabled the company to almost wipe out its debts with a reduction of £605m to just £78m, and Serco saw its pipeline of larger opportunities growing by £1.5bn to £6.5bn.

The shares are on a big forward P/E of over 50, but this looks like a company that is genuinely into recovery — an update in May said performance in the first four months of the year had been “stronger than we anticipated” and that profit for the year should be ahead of previous expectations.

Oily riches

Are smaller oil explorers finally coming to the fore? Indus Gas (LSE: INDI) has suffered badly though the oil price crash, with its shares down 80% since December 2012, but again we’ve been seeing a powerful comeback in 2016 — from a February low, the price has more than doubled to 215p. Strengthening oil prices have help for sure, although the price of a barrel has dipped below $50 again.

In September last year I found it hard to understand the low valuation of Indus Gas shares when they were trading at around half their current price, so I’m pleased with the movement since then. There hasn’t been a great deal of news, so I think the recovery has largely been due to a change in sentiment towards what are actually very thinly-traded shares.

If we see further oil price gains over the next 12 months and more, Indus’s resources in Rajasthan could look very attractive.

The post Will Indivior plc (+71%), Serco Group plc (+33%) & Indus Gas Limited (+105%) be among 2016’s big winners? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Electronics revival

The story of the old Dixons was a remarkable one of turnaround from the brink of disaster, and since its rebirth as Dixons Carphone (LSE: DC) we’ve seen a decent performance. Dixons shares have gained 39% over the past two years to 443p, and the company’s dividend has been creeping up slowly.

For the year ended April 2016, the forecast dividend would only yield a modest 2.2% on today’s share price, but it would represent an inflation-smashing rise of 26% on the previous year and there are big boosts on the cards for the next two years. The firm’s fourth-quarter trading update told us to expect headline pre-tax profit of between £445m and £450m, after revenues grew by 5% in the final quarter and over the 12 months. Net debt should below £300, which is really nothing at all to be worried about.

What about the value of the shares? The latest P/E of 15.6 might seem a little high, but that would drop to 12.6 by April 2018 if forecasts prove accurate, and I see that as fair value for a company with decent growth expectations even if it’s perhaps not a screaming bargain. Full-year results are due on 29 June.

Cash in on housing

Before that, on 15 June, we’re due full-year results from housebuilder Berkeley Group Holdings (LSE: BKG). The City’s analysts are expecting a standstill in earnings for this year to put the 3,302p shares on a P/E of around 12.7, which might not sound too thrilling. But a 50% EPS forecast for the year to April 2017 would drop that to just 8.4, and there are dividend yields of 6% on the cards.

In its last update in March, Berkeley told us that the London market was stable and that it had “cash due on forward sales remaining in excess of £3 billion“, although reservations were down 4% on the previous year at that point. But the company did predict “£2 billion of pre-tax profit in aggregate over the three years culminating in 2017/18” and said that results should be at the top end of expectations.

Fears for a slowdown or even a reversal in London house prices have helped show share price growth, and we’re looking at a rise of just 6% in the past 12 months. But with expectations so strong, I’d say rumours of a demise in the housebuilding sector are very much exaggerated.

Oil & gas bargain?

On 30 June we should see a trading and operational update from Tullow Oil (LSE: TLW), ahead of first-half results due on 27 July. Tullow oil shares have picked up 84% since their low on 20 January, trading now at 232p, and that is in no small part due to the recovery in the oil price to above $50 per barrel.

Tullow is one of those mid-sized oil companies that carry a lot of debt, but which at least do have profits on the cards to service it. And while that makes the firm riskier than the likes of BP and Shell, it’s way ahead of the unprofitable tiddlers in the safety stakes. Despite that, Tullow shares are still down 85% since their peak in early 2012, and you’d have had very little in the way of dividends since then.

But the tide looks like turning, and now could be a great time to buy Tullow Oil shares.

The post 3 hot dates for June: Tullow Oil plc, Dixons Carphone plc, Berkeley Group Holdings plc appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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But by the same token, surely the best time to buy such companies is when prices in their sectors are staging a comeback, as they’re more likely to reward us with multi-bagger gains than the FTSE 100 giants.

Brighter prospects

Look at Amur Minerals (LSE: AMC), for example, whose share price has been in a bit of a slump — at 4.8p as I write, Amur shares are down 90% from their high point in June 2015. But the latest independent update on the Kubuk nickel-copper deposits at the firm’s Kun-Manie project, just published a few days ago, has increased the likely available resources again. Amur now says the total measured and indicated resources at the mine in the far East of Russia have doubled since April 2015, and this latest step concludes the evaluation phase of Amur’s Definitive Feasibility Study.

There is, of course, still a long way to go, but any progress in the prices of nickel and copper will surely help. Both have been picking up, though both have dropped back a little of late — but if metals prices really have bottomed out, the prospects for Amur will surely have brightened a little.

Oil opportunity

With the price of a barrel of Brent crude getting ever closer to the magic $50 mark, the future for Xcite Energy (LSE: XEL) must be looking a little rosier too. Xcite shares are down over the past 12 months, to 14.9p, but we’ve actually seen a 32% recovery since a recent low on 20 January.

Sustainable profits from Xcite aren’t expected before 2018, and there will be plenty of debt that needs to be serviced before then — in fact, when its full-year results were released in March, the firm told us it was in talks with bondholders in order to “develop financial flexibility” regarding bond payments due on 30 June.

With Xcite’s reserves update issued the same day looking pretty positive, the chances of the firm getting its finances sorted for the longer term are looking increasingly good to me — although it’s clearly still only for those who can handle a bit of risk.

Shiny

Platinum is one of those precious metals that has uses other than just sitting around looking shiny, and the price of the stuff has been picking up lately, to $1,055 per ounce at the time of writing. And that hasn’t done Jubilee Platinum (LSE: JLP) any harm at all, with Jubilee shares having more than doubled in the past 12 months — they’ve been on a bit of a slow fall for a few months recently, but an operational update on 12 May gave the shares a boost, and they stand at 3.3p today.

The chrome recovery plant operated by subsidiary Jubilee Tailings Treatment Company is now fully operational and has achieved a sustainable processing capacity that’s 30% ahead of expectations. Production of 6,000 tonnes of chromite is targeted for May, rising to 8,000 tonnes in June, and that surely makes Jubilee shares that bit more attractive.

The post Is it time to buy Amur Minerals Corporation, Xcite Energy Limited and Jubilee Platinum plc? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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And it’s from Saudi that the latest “They won’t” hint has come, with the country’s state-owned producer Saudi Aramco saying that production will increase this year. That comes amid plans to sell off 5% of its shares, to raise cash for the country’s intended economic diversification.

But against that, oil prices do seem to be maintaining their recent recovery, with Brent Crude back up around $46 per barrel and January’s lows looking increasingly distant. And with demand for oil set to carry on rising over the coming years, the balance of supply and demand just has to correct itself in the longer term.

Positive update

And that really makes me think we could be in the best bargain times for buying oil shares right now. My pick has been Premier Oil (LSE: PMO), and with the price at 68.5p today I’m now only about 25% down since I bought some!

Premier Oil shares reacted erratically today to the company’s latest trading and operational update, gaining 8.3% at one stage in the morning to 75.5p, but as I write the price is down 2%. Still, Premier shares have been picking up over the past few months, and we’re now looking at a 3.6-fold rise since shares resumed trading at the end of January.

Today’s update sounded on the money too, with the company saying it’s set to meet or exceed the “upper end of 2016 guidance of 65-70 kboepd for the full year“. The acquisition of E.ON’s North Sea assets was completed on 28 April, operating costs are still falling, and Premier says it has “significant liquidity with cash and undrawn bank facilities of c.$750 million” and is discussing possible covenant wavers if required — which they may well be if low oil continues too long.

Same boat

I see Tullow Oil (LSE: TLW) as being in a very similar situation to Premier, sitting on a lot of very attractive oil assets, but again with a pile of debt hanging over its head. We’re expecting a first-half trading update from Tullow on 30 June, but while we’re waiting for that we’ve again seen a share price recovery — since their low on 20 January, Tullow Oil shares have doubled in price to 241p.

Tullow is ahead in expecting to see a pre-tax profit this year (in contrast, Premier is still expected to record losses this year and next), and the firm says it should have the free cash flow to enable it to start chipping away at its debt in 2017.

Nerves of steel?

Both Premier Oil and Tullow Oil are clearly high-risk investments, although I perhaps see Tullow shares as the less risky of the two. If you’d be uncomfortable seeing your shares losing ground in the short term then you should probably stay away (and I confess I nearly had to check my trousers when the Premier shares I bought at 90p dropped as low as 19p).

But I think there’s a big enough window, between now and the time when oil prices will be high enough to keep the wolves away, to make Premier shares and Tullow shares both look attractively priced.

The post Are Premier Oil plc and Tullow Oil plc too cheap to miss now? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Alan Oscroft owns shares of Premier Oil. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Results for the year just ended in March 2016 are due on 5 May, and after a 12% rise in EPS last year, forecasters are expecting a fall back of 2% this year, followed by just a 1% pick-up by March 2017. But with growth expected to accelerate again in 2017-18, does the recent price stagnation make BT shares a good buy now?

BT’s acquisition of EE has only just been completed, and we should be seeing a significant contribution to the bottom line in the coming years. And at Q3 time, chief executive Gavin Patterson enthused about BT’s 4.7% revenue growth as being “our best result for more than seven years“.

On current expectations, the P/E would drop to 13 by March 2018, when the dividend would be yielding 3.9%, and that should make BT shares good value if it comes off — eyes peeled on Thursday.

Oil comeback?

With the price of oil still gradually creeping up and standing above $45 per barrel today, Premier Oil (LSE: PMO) could be set for a very nice comeback from what looked like a dire situation at one point. Premier Oil shares were suspended at 19p in January while the world awaited news of a significant event — it turned out to be the acquisition of E.ON’s North Sea assets for $120m (which I still reckon was a steal), and the shares have since climbed back up to 69p.

At the time, investors were worrying about Premier’s $2.2bn debt mountain. But the firm’s covenants look safe until well into 2017, the E.ON assets should be immediately cash generative, and a modestly-recovering oil price is all that Premier really needs for its future to be reasonably safe.

We should get some news on the E.ON integration, together with an updated snapshot of the whole company, when Premier releases its latest trading and operations update on 11 May — and as a holder of Premier shares, I’m hoping it will help blow the cloudy skies further away.

Buying opportunity?

ITV (LSE: ITV) shareholders have enjoyed a cracking five years, seeing their shares treble in price to 229p. That’s been on the back of five years of strong earnings growth, with revenue growing by 34% between 2011 and 2014, and EPS up 85% — oh, and the dividend has been lifted from 1.6p per share in 2011 to 6p in 2015.

But despite that great record, ITV shares have been falling back of late, giving up 20% since the end of July 2015. The reason is very likely down to a slowing of growth expectations — the 8% and 7% EPS growth forecasts for this year and next respectively look fine to me, but it can lead those who expect super growth to continue forever to jump ship.

And the fall has dropped the P/E of ITV shares to 12.6 for this year, and as low as 11.7 on 2017 forecasts — while the dividend is set to rise to 7.4p this year for a yield of 3.3%, then to 8.6p for 3.8% in 2017. I reckon that’s given us a nice buying opportunity, and I’ll be watching for first-quarter results due on 12 May.

The post 3 Hot Shares for May: BT Group plc, Premier Oil PLC & ITV plc? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Alan Oscroft owns shares of Premier Oil. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

But is the latest mini-recovery too little, too late, to save Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP)? I fear so. There’s cash finally trickling in from the Kurdistan Regional Government, but at $12m net to Gulf per month it’s small. The outstanding arrears ($298.4m at 30 September 2015) have yet to be tackled. Payments should switch to a variable basis dependent on the price of oil, so will that help Gulf meet its debt obligations?

The company faces repayments of $250m in April 2017 and $325m in October 2017, so even if all arrears are paid by then, we’d still need a bigger rise in the oil price to make that possible — or alternative funding, which the company is working all-out to try to achieve.

But when I look at Gulf Keystone I’m reminded of Afren, whose only hope was a restructuring that would have led to creditors taking almost the entire company — and even that fell through. With Gulf’s shares down 86% over 12 months, to 5.6p, and down 99% from their 2012 peak, I can’t see there being much, if anything, left for existing shareholders when the debt crunch hits.

Better shape?

Xcite Energy (LSE: XEL) seems to be in better shape, but it too has debt repayments to make. Xcite’s shares have picked up a bit since their January low, to 16p, for a less-bad performance than Gulf — down just 64% since last May and only 96% since 2011’s high.

Xcite has some exciting prospects in its North Sea Bentley oil field, where it managed to get lifecycle costs down to around $30 a barrel. That means every dollar added to the price of a barrel provides a geared-up incentive for potential partners in the Bentley field.

But a problem, in addition to finding the funding to develop Bentley, is a tranche of bond payments that the company needs to make in June — although Xcite says it’s in discussions to “develop financial flexibility” ahead of that date. Will the financing happen in time? I think it’s likely, and any further oil price rises will surely strengthen Xcite’s position.

Risky explorer?

Thirdly, there’s smaller Frontera Resources (LSE: FRR) with a market cap of just £15m and a share price of 0.4p. Frontera, which is focusing on emerging markets around the Black Sea, is still in the capital-raising stage of its existence, and has no profits on the horizon yet.

An issue of 165m new shares was announced in March, followed by a further 120m shares in the firm’s latest operations update. There’s sure to be a fair bit more of the same needed before Frontera starts recording annual profits — and we can’t quantify the eventual dilution yet. But chairman and CEO Steve C Nicandros did describe the stimulation campaign at the South Kakheti Gas Complex’s Oil Window as “extremely exciting“, getting oil from wells that were unproductive using older technology.

Frontera has a long way to go and it’s too risky for me, but oil price rises could boost its chances.

The post Can Rising Oil Save Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited, Xcite Energy Limited & Frontera Resources Corp? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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But then you notice its shares have actually more than doubled in a little over six months, to 176p today. And analysts have a turnaround on the cards, with a return to positive EPS forecast for this year followed by a massive rise next year that would take the P/E down to around 13.5. Does that sound like a tasty recovery candidate?

It’s KAZ Minerals (LSE: KAZ) I’m talking about, and the omens are starting to look good. Copper is the company’s business, and the five-year slump in the price of the stuff might just have started its reversal — over the past three months it’s climbed back to around the $5,000 per tonne mark. The big factor is China, and the bearish view of the country is starting to soften as monetary easing is looking more likely. But predictions aren’t great, with some suggesting copper demand isn’t going to change much over the next 12 months.

The timing might not be perfect, and KAZ Minerals shares might languish for a little while longer. But with a long-term view, I can’t help thinking they’re good value now.

Horse Hill

UK Oil & Gas (LSE: UKOG) has just upped its stake in the Horse Hill development in the Weald Basin near Gatwick, by buying out Angus Energy Holdings‘ remaining 7.8% stake in the two relevant licences. The transaction, costing £1.8m as a combination of £1m in cash and £0.8m in UK Oil & Gas shares, takes the company’s share of the so-called Gatwick Gusher licenses from a whisker under 20% to 27.3% (and takes its interest in Horse Hill Developments Limited to 42%).

Taking on a bigger share of the risk at a time when huge amounts of cash are going to be needed to reach actual production could be seen as unnecessary, but that’s offset by the partial funding of the deal with UK Oil & Gas shares — if success leads to the big price rise that many are hoping, it could turn out to be a cheap deal. On top of that, the company isn’t dependent on just this one project, having interests in a number of other assets which are already productive.

But the currently unknown development costs and inevitable future fundraising, which come with no idea of the final dilution to be faced by existing shareholders, means I’d still keep away.

A new hope?

88 Energy (LSE: 88E) shares leaped skyward in February when the company announced a major discovery at its Icewine#1 exploration well. And if you’d bought on 12 February, by 23 February you’d have enjoyed a gain of 138%. Since then the price has fallen back from a peak of nearly 3p to 2.1p, including an 8% rise on a volatile day so far today — it’s definitely not been an investment for the weak-hearted so far!

Is 88 Energy a good punt for those with a stronger constitution? There’s little doubt that there’s great potential in the firm’s oil shale find, but the problem right now is that it’s unquantifiable. 88 Energy has no profits on the cards any time soon and no forecasts, and the share price is currently driven only by news flow — and I can see the cycle of news, price rise, no news, price fall, news… going on for a while longer. At this stage, that’s just not my style of investment.

The post Are KAZ Minerals PLC, UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC And 88 Energy Ltd Poised For Success? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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And you know what? Nothing much has actually happened. Brent Crude is still selling above $40 per barrel, and at $41.20 as I write it’s really only lost the $3 to $4 it picked up in optimistic anticipation of a successful outcome at the oil-heads pow-wow. And, the truth is, very few of us expected any production-capping breakthrough anyway, not with Iran only just having been allowed to start selling again and not even having sent a delegate.

Down… a little

And the share prices? Premier is down 6% to 49.2p, but it’s still 22% up since 7 April. And shares in Tullow Oil (LSE: TLW) have only lost a very modest 1.4% to 210p. Since the start of the year, Premier is up 14% and Tullow is up 25%. In my book, this is not a time to be crying.

Clearly Premier Oil’s massive debts of more than $2.2bn mean it really does need to see oil prices rising. But the thing is, it doesn’t really need big rises and it doesn’t need them all that fast. Premier’s lenders are still being very flexible and have extended its covenants to mid-2017. On top of that, abut a third of Premier’s 2016 production still hedged at above $70, and its cash position is remaining pretty stable. Premier has pared its costs to the bone by ditching some non-core assets, and at the same time its acquisition of E.ON’s North Sea assets for $120m, which are immediately cash generative, seems like a masterpiece of bottom picking to me.

Plenty of cash

Meanwhile, Tullow’s hedging position looks even stronger, with half of this year’s production pegged at $75, while some of its assets are producing at as little as $10-15 per barrel. Tullow’s debt pile, at $4bn, makes Premier’s seem like small change. But there’s one crucial difference — at 31 December, Tullow enjoyed a combined free cash and lending headroom of $1.9bn, so the cash isn’t going to run out any time soon.

Tullow is also slashing its capital expenditure. Last year’s total of $1.7bn is forecast to drop to $1.1bn for 2016, but it could potentially drop as low as $0.9bn with a bit more work. In fact, should low oil prices continue into next year, Tullow says it should be able to get capex down to around $0.3bn per year from 2017 onwards.

On top of all that, both companies expect to increase their production over the next 12 months, as Premier’s North Sea Solan field has started flowing, and there’s all that E.ON production to add. For its part, Tullow should see more of the back stuff pumping from its operations in Ghana in the second half of this year.

The future looks good

Ultimately, oil production has to be cut and prices have to rise, as many of the world’s major producers are simply hurting too much to keep going at current prices levels indefinitely. The heads were talking of needing more time as they walked away from the OPEC meeting, and not just giving up — and I think they’ll ultimately be forced to take some action, even without Iran on board.

My take on the oil companies, then, is that those with sufficient cash resources to keep going for another year without any real problems should do well, and any price dips represent buying opportunities.

The post OPEC Failure Turns Premier Oil PLC & Tullow Oil plc Into Even Better Bargains! appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Alan Oscroft owns shares of Premier Oil. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Tullow Oil. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Up until yesterday, shares in Aminex (LSE: AEX) were down 28% over 12 months, echoing the slump among smaller oil and gas explorers. But a morning spike today of 18% has lifted the shares to 1.45p, after the company reported first gas from its Kiliwani North field in Tanzania.

Production from the field, in which Aminex should have a 51.75% stake after a recent partial disposal, is expected to reach a production level of around 4,000 to 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day gross over the next 90 to 100 days — and Aminex expects to receive $10m to $15m per year from the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation for it.

Cheap assets

I’d hoped I was close to the bottom when I bought Premier Oil (LSE: PMO) shares at 99p back in September, but the subsequent fall to just 19p reinforced the lesson that no matter how far a share has fallen, there’s still another possible 100% to go. But since then, Premier pulled off what I think was a bit of a coup in snapping up E.ON’s North Sea assets for $120m — it should be cash generative, and will surely be seen as a bargain price in a few years’ time.

Premier shares have more than double since that 19p low, to 44p today (I’m only 55% down, whoopee!) and I see it as a risky but good prospect. The big downer is the company’s net debt, which stood at more than $2.2bn at 31 December. But unlike some others, Premier does not seem to be facing any prospect of its lenders pulling the plug — in fact, they have agreed to loosen Premier’s fianancial covenants until mid-2017, while the company is focusing on debt reduction.

My timing stank, but I’m happy to hold.

Pharma prospects

Oxford Biomedica (LSE: OXB) shareholders won’t be too chuffed when they look back on the 57% price drop they’ve suffered over the past 12 months, but they can perhaps take a little heart today from seeing a 5.7% rise to 5.55p — perhaps in anticipation of full-year results due on 28 April.

The company specializes in gene therapy and cell-based medicine, which is surely the future for many of today’s health problems and is likely to be a field which generates lots of tasty profits. But the problem, as with any other new technology still in the startup “blue sky” days (and I’m minded of fuel cell research, which has been touted for years but is still in its infancy) is that we really don’t know when the big commercial breakthroughs will come and who will profit from them.

Oxford Biomedica is still in the cash-burn phase, has no forecasts for profits yet, and launched a new share placing to generate needed working capital as recently as February — and we really don’t know how much further dilution there’ll be before we see those first profits. There are definite possibilities here, but it’s unquantifiable right now and is not one for me.

The post Are Aminex plc, Premier Oil PLC And Oxford BioMedica plc Set For Strong Recoveries? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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• I’m targeting an £8,299 annual income from £20,000 in this transformed FTSE energy star!

Alan Oscroft has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.