My own view is that trying to work out the best time of year to buy shares is a bad plan. But I do think there are opportunities in the stock market that are worth considering right now.

Sell in May… and buy in November?

At the start of May, Fresnillo shares were trading at £10.02. Fast forward to today and the share price is £22.72 – 127% higher than it was six months ago. 

There aren’t many guarantees when it comes to the stock market. But one of the few things investors can count on is that it’s not better to buy things at higher prices than lower ones.

Fresnillo is the top-performing FTSE 100 stock of the last six months. The index as a whole, however, is up almost 17%, so share prices are generally higher now than they were then.

Investors who decided to stay in cash since May haven’t been able to make up that difference. And this shows why waiting for share prices to fall is a risky business.

A different strategy

That doesn’t mean investors should always be piling into stocks without regard for prices or fundamentals. Over the long term, that’s a risky business. 

The best strategy, in my view, involves buying shares on a regular basis and looking for the best opportunities at any particular time. And this can change from one month to another.

For example, Mondelēz International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) stock has fared badly recently. But I think it might be a good time to look at buying shares in the company behind Cadbury, Oreos, and Toblerone.

The firm has been battling increased input costs in the form of cocoa and sugar prices and this is a key reason the stock has faltered. But there are signs that things are turning around. 

Commodity prices

Since the start of 2025, cocoa prices have fallen by 50% and sugar has reached its lowest level in five years. That should give Mondelēz a boost in terms of its future margins. 

Source: Trading Economics

This isn’t the only challenge facing the company – the rise of GLP-1 drugs is a potential threat to demand. And this is another reason the stock has underperformed over the last few years.

Mondelēz, however, has a strategy for dealing with this. Rather than changing recipes, it’s looking to reduce the size of its products to make them accessible to users of the drug.

The stock market seems suspicious, but with only 25% of the firm’s sales coming from the US, CEO Dirk van de Put thinks the likely hit to sales is around 1.5% by 2030. And that’s not a lot. 

Finding investment opportunities

I think there’s a good case to be made for Mondelēz as a stock to consider buying right now. But that has pretty much nothing to do with the fact it’s November. 

What it comes down to is the fact the company’s share price hasn’t really moved despite some big declines in its input costs. That’s why I think there’s a potential opportunity to check out.

The post Historically, November tends to be a good month to buy stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

The latest study from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggests my scepticism is well-founded. It suggests that – unless something changes – the State Pension age might have to go up to 74.

Pension problems

The triple lock on pensions guarantees the amount the paid out to its recipients increases each year by at least 2.5%. But there are a lot of issues with its long-term sustainability.

On one side of the equation, longer life expectancy means more people receiving the State Pension. On the other side, lower birth rates and higher benefit claims reduce the UK’s capacity to finance it.

Politically, it’s tough for any government to scrap the triple lock. So to limit the pressure on the UK’s finances, the age at which people become eligible to claim has been increasing.

According to the IFS, something has to give sooner or later. If the triple lock stays in place, the Stare Pension age is going to have to rise to 69 by 2049 and 74 by 2069.

Investing for retirement

I quite like my job. But it’s not the thing I enjoy most in the world and I don’t want to be in a position where I have to do it until I’m 74.

That means I’m going to have to find a way of generating extra income I can use until I become eligible… whenever that is. And I think the stock market is where I want to be.

Fundamentally, investing in stocks isn’t about predicting what share prices will do. It involves becoming an owner of a business and earning a return from the profits the company produces. 

Over the long term, I think an ownership stake in some of the world’s best businesses is likely to provide me with a better income stream than cash or bonds. And that’s why I invest in the stock market. 

An example

A good example is confectionary producer Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ). The enduring popularity of its products – which include Cadbury, Oreos, Toblerone, and more – put the company in a strong position.

If I tried to start a business making chocolate, I’m pretty sure I’d find it near-impossible to compete with these names. But there’s a threat that investors have been paying close attention to recently.

The rise of GLP-1 drugs could have meaningful implications for chocolate consumption over time. I think this is a genuine risk, but it’s worth noting the company doesn’t really agree.

Mondelez estimates the effect of anti-obesity medication on sales volumes is going to be less than 1% over the next 10 years. And if it’s right, the outlook for the business could be very promising. 

Investment returns

Over the last 10 years, the dividend per share – the cash Mondelez returns to investors – has more than tripled. And I like the idea of funding my retirement with a share of the firm’s future profits.

The GLP-1 threat’s something to think carefully about. But for investors who share the company’s view that the long-term impact is relatively limited, I think the stock’s worth considering.

The post Why I invest in the stock market appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

But with his closed-ended fund’s London-listed shares now trading at a 15% discount to their net asset value (NAV) is now the time to buy into Ackman’s well-earned reputation on the cheap?

Well, it remains to be seen whether this steep discount can be closed in the coming quarters. Ackman initiated the London listing for the £3.6bn fund with the explicit purpose of closing the valuation gap by increasing index fund holdings due to its automatic inclusion in the FTSE 250. As the fund was only listed in May, and joined the FTSE 250 in June, only time will tell whether this discount can be narrowed and today’s valuation prove a true bargain pickup.

But, there is no doubting that UK investors will now find it easier to piggyback on the future returns of a very successful investor with a long history of market-beating returns. However, they do need to remember well the fact that historic out-performance does not indicate a likelihood of future out-performance.   

An added wrinkle to consider is that of the 10 long positions and one short position the fund publicly disclosed holding as of June are all North America-listed companies and so may be a bit risky for British investors. Furthermore, Ackman is famous for making highly concentrated bets. As of the end of Q1, a little more than 70% of the portfolio was tied up in just three companies: Burger King parent Restaurant Brands International; fast casual restaurant Chipotle; and snack food producer Mondelez. This means investors should expect wild swings in performance and share price due to little diversification.

A safer option?

Another famous American hedge fund manager who has tapped British investors for long-term capital is Dan Loeb of Third Point. His London-listed, closed-ended fund, Third Point Offshore Investors (LSE: TPOG), invests its capital in the Third Point master fund and also trades at around a 15% discount to its NAV. Like Ackman’s fund, this discount is down to a variety of factors such as illiquidity of shares, the relatively high management fees charged, and investors pricing in the potential for poor performance.

As the current discount is relatively in line with historic levels, I reckon the fund probably isn’t a screaming bargain. However, for investors looking for exposure to a more diversified hedge fund, Third Point could fit the bill with the top three positions as of Q1 representing just under 40% of the portfolio. The fund is also more international in nature with large stakes in Italian bank UniCredit SpA, German utility E.On and Swiss multinational Nestlé as of the end of June.

The post Is Bill Ackman’s newly FTSE 250-listed fund a bargain basement buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.