I see interesting times ahead for the GSK (LSE: GSK) share price. GlaxoSmithKline is one of the largest UK biotech stocks trading on the London Stock Exchange. It’s a global giant, with an impressive £1.7bn free cash flow in Q1 alone.

But its share price has been losing ground against its competitors, barely moving over the last five years. It’s not even kept up with inflation.

Could that be about to change as it goes through what it describes as “the most significant corporate change for GSK in the last 20 years”?

Change ahead for the GSK share price?

For some time, the company has been seen to be lagging behind its peers. The last decade has seen it fall from being the third-largest pharmaceutical company in the world down to 14th, based on its market cap.

CEO Emma Walmsley’s response has been the slow progression of plans to split the company in two. And next month should finally see the spin-off of its Consumer Healthcare division into a separate company called Haleon.

But will the estimated £2.4bn cost of the split, one of the most expensive ever, be worth it?

Can GSK benefit from the deal?

The deal will give the company a one-off pocketful of £7bn in cash to spend. That’s seen as fundamental for developing its drugs pipeline, especially in areas such as cancer where it’s noticeably lagging competitors.

This is something that should have a positive impact on its share price. But that’s only if it’s able to transform itself from a global giant into the nimble biotech-focused company it says it wants to be.

In particular, it wants its R&D teams to focus on the science of the immune system, use of human genetics and advanced technologies.

That all sounds wonderful and exciting on paper – but I’m politely curious (read a little sceptical) as to whether reality will match its ambitions. 

Can the ‘new’ GSK compete in the biotech world?

With the pandemic bringing vaccine development sharply into the limelight and increased competition, it’s probably fair to say the biotech world is a tougher place to win these days.

The average business spend for companies developing new drugs may have fallen sharply from a high of $2.8bn to $1.3bn, but that’s still a huge chunk of cash to bet on a single product.

That’s why having a diverse pipeline of drugs is essential for GSK (just like my Foolish investing approach in shares). If one drug fails to perform as hoped, others may plug the revenue gap.

Right now, its focus appears to be on buying its way out of its pipeline problem, such as its recent £1.5bn purchase of Sierra Oncology. Or there’s the £2.1bn upfront payment to Affinivax, a clinical stage vaccine developer.

That’s an expensive approach and not one I’d be keen on seeing it adopt as its main strategy.

The market may well want to see tangible proof of its R&D investments paying off before it rewards GSK with a higher share price.

So to answer my question in the title, I don’t think the fact of the demerger alone will drive the price higher. For now, I’ll hold off on buying GSK shares. But I’ll watch with interest to see if it takes advantage of its post-demerger opportunities.

The post After its £2.4bn demerger, can the GSK share price blossom? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Michelle Freeman holds shares in GlaxoSmthKline. The Motley Fool UK has recommended GlaxoSmithKline. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

A new Covid-19 vaccine from AstraZeneca

The trial results were positive, but the AstraZeneca share price barely moved on the news. The muted response is likely attributable to the company’s ‘no profit’ policy for its vaccine launch. The vaccine, AZD1222, was tested using two separate dosing regimens.

The first dosing regimen consisted of a half then full dose one month apart and showed a 90% efficacy. Patients in the second dosing regimen received two full doses one month apart and showed a 62% efficacy. The combined results showed a 70% overall effectiveness.

While this would be considered a breakthrough a few months ago, in comparison to the 95% efficacy of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines, AZD1222 appears underwhelming. However, it has a distinct advantage over both.

The vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna require cold storage conditions of -70°C, and -20°C, respectively. AstraZeneca’s vaccine can be stored for up to six months at a temperature of 2°C–8°C.

Maintaining sub-freezing temperatures in transit is a complicated and expensive process, making the availability of the vaccine in poorer nations minimal. By not requiring less demanding storage temperatures, AZD1222 may prove to be the most viable vaccine candidate for mass distribution.

A biotech stock opportunity

The vaccine was developed and manufactured with help from Oxford Biomedica (LSE:OXB) as part of a supply agreement signed in September. I’ve discussed the biotech stock in previous articles. As a quick reminder, Oxford Biomedica is a gene and cell therapy group. It offers a proprietary platform, LentiVector, that allows pharmaceutical companies to develop new drugs at a significantly reduced cost.

The supply agreement is active for 18 months. The biotech company is responsible for the manufacturing of AZD1222 until the end of 2021 unless the contract is extended.

Initially, the firm received an upfront payment of £15m from AstraZeneca. It expects to generate an estimated £35m from this contract alone by the end of 2021. This represents a huge growth opportunity for the company. The combined £50m revenue represents nearly 80% of the total revenue achieved in 2019 pre-Covid-19.

With this added boost and the continual growth of its LentiVector platform, I’ve forecasted total revenue for 2021 to be in the £100m–£120m range – almost double what it is today.

However, it is essential to remember that this additional revenue is only temporary and may cease to exist after 2021. Still, it does grant a significant boost in available capital for the business to reinvest and increase the value of its platform for its clients.

The bottom line

AstraZeneca’s noble non-profit stance is a social victory. However, Oxford Biomedica is the real financial beneficiary of AZD1222’s successful trials. The Covid-19 vaccine still requires regulatory approval, but AstraZeneca has already begun the filing process with multiple regulatory bodies around the world.

The post Covid-19 vaccine: 1 biotech stock that profits from AstraZeneca’s success appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Zaven Boyrazian owns shares in Oxford Biomedica. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.