However, it doesn’t always have to be like this. Indeed, here’s one stock that’s seen a 500% increase in its share price over the past year. It was one of the FTSE’s minnows. Now (3 April), it’s a much bigger fish. Let’s take a closer look at the reasons behind its growth and consider its future prospects.

Then and now

On 4 April 2025, with nearly 194m shares in issue at a price of 47.9p, Ceres Power (LSE:CWR) just about qualified as a penny share. Since then, its market cap has soared from close to £100m to approximately £650m. Why?

Increased demand for the group’s solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and electrolysis cell technologies is the principal reason.

This comes off the back of huge worldwide investment in data centres. It’s widely acknowledged that Europe’s energy infrastructure is struggling to keep up with the extra capacity needed for AI-related activities. But the group’s fuel cells use hydrogen to quickly (and cleanly) generate electricity and heat via a chemical reaction.

The group adopts a licensing approach by selling the intellectual property rights to manufacture its cells to third parties. Its partners include Shell in India and, last week (26 March), it announced a deal with Centrica, one of the UK’s largest renewable energy suppliers.

A potentially enormous market

In October 2025, the group’s share price received a boost when UBS brought forward its prediction of when the company will break even by one year, to 2026. The investment bank expects the SOFC market to be worth £50bn by 2030, with Ceres Power securing around 10% of this.

However, UBS is talking about breaking even at EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) level. With a post-tax loss of £47.5m in 2025, it’s likely to take at least another year before Ceres Power’s bottom line’s in the black.

However, it hasn’t all been good news. In 2025, Bosch ceased working with the group claiming that hydrogen-to-electricity conversion is not being prioritised enough in Europe. And the company reported a “slowdown in the demand for hydrogen solutions”.

This led to a 37% reduction in revenue for the year compared to 2024. And a £16.3m widening of its operating loss.

On the up

Nonetheless, it looks to me as though the company’s back on track. When its partners reach commercial scale, the group receives a royalty payment based on every kilowatt of product sold. Significantly, it earned its first royalties in 2025.

Although Ceres Power might not be a penny stock any more, it’s still loss-making. However, its capital light business model, in which others take on the manufacturing risk, means it retained a net cash position at the end of 2025. And it helped the group generate an impressive 70% gross profit margin.

The group’s clearly convinced a number of blue-chip companies that its fuel cell technology is one way to overcome current grid capacity constraints. And despite its stellar rally, analysts reckon the shares are still approximately 50% undervalued.

On this basis, despite the obvious risks surrounding a company that’s seeking to develop relatively new technological solutions, I think the stock’s one to consider.

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That sort of fillip on results day is always welcome, though it is actually small fry for Ceres shareholders when compared to the share’s 12-month performance. Over the past year, the Ceres Power share price is up a stunning 458%.

People have been talking up Ceres’ renewable energy potential for years. One year ago, this was not some below-the-radar stock nobody had ever heard of.

So what has happened to transform the share price – and should I still consider buying some Ceres Power shares even now?

Sharp revenue drop

At first glance, it may seem difficult to grasp why the market greeted the results so well. After all, last year saw revenues fall by over a third, to £33m.

Gross profit also fell, the operating loss grew over 50% to £48m, and the company’s cash burn was around £19m.

So, why the investor enthusiasm not only today but also over the past year?

One reason was last year’s start to mass market manufacture of fuel cell stacks based on Ceres’ technology by Korean industrial firm Doosan. That is a powerful proof of Ceres’ technology being attractive.

It also highlights the potential benefits from the firm’s licensing model. Its intellectual property can help it earn royalties, without Ceres needing to spend heavily on making the cell stacks itself. That said, at £110,000, Ceres’ total royalties for last year were modest.

They should grow substantially over time, but by how much remains to be seen. I think that will be a key element in determining a fair share prices for Ceres Power over the coming years.

Taking a long-term view

In a way, that is not new.

Ceres Power has been listed on the stock market for over two decades already. The investment case has often rested on trying to ascertain what its technology might turn out to be worth if it can be properly commercialised at scale.

That has seen it go through some sharp ups and downs. Even after the past year’s boom, the Ceres Power share price is still just a fraction of what it was in 2021 – or 2009, or 2007.

But what has changed in my opinion is that the path to commercialisation now looks much clearer. Indeed, Ceres has already made important steps on it with the Doosan deal.

However, it continues to lose money and to burn through cash. While the technology is impressive, this is a crowded market. In the time it has taken Ceres to get this far, the space has become competitive.

Doosan is only one of Ceres’ partners and it is making good progress with other partners in markets including China and India. 84% of revenue last year was generated by four customers, which is a concentration risk.

Still, the company is moving in a positive direction and may be on the verge of scaling up substantially. That could help push the share price higher.

But those negative cash flows and losses bother me. I would prefer to see a proven profitable business model, so for now will not be investing.

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Keen observers will note we’re still some distance from all-time highs. The current 303p share price looks tiny compared to previous highs of 1,576p in 2021 and 2,612p all the way back in 2007. What’s going on here? And could Ceres Power shares be one of the London Stock Exchange‘s best bargains?

Let’s have a quick refresher on what the company does. Ceres designs solid oxide fuel cells – a form of clean and green energy. They can run on both gas and hydrogen, making them suitable for energy needs today and in the future.

Why have the shares been surging? It’s because of – surprise, surprise – artificial intelligence. The need for vast amounts of energy for AI data centres has pushed up renewable energy stocks left, right, and centre. The shares in another British green energy firm – ITM Power – flew higher in 2025 too.

Perhaps the key detail is the delays for other sources of energy. Wait times for grid connections and delivery of gas turbines are said to be pushing five years or longer. That’s too long to wait for the main players caught up in the AI revolution.

In short, this is an indirect AI play. The expectation is that the brave new world that artificial intelligence might usher in will be powered (at least in part) by forward-thinking energy firms.

All this has resulted in some of the most bullish analyst forecasts you’ll find this side of the Atlantic. Goldman Sachs put a price target of 530p on Ceres Power. If that target is on the money then investors could expect a £10,000 investment to turn into £17,492 in the next 12 months.

Crazy swings

As bright as all that might sound, this is still a pre-earnings company. There is a lot of risk buying stock in a company that hasn’t proven itself capable of turning a profit yet.

One way we can get an idea of valuation with these companies is to look at revenue. Ceres Power achieved sales of £32m inthe financial year 2024. Comparing that to its market cap of £600m gives up a price-to-sales ratio of around 20. That’s eye-wateringly high.

These types of stocks are more likely to have crazy swings in value. It’s true enough for Ceres. Despite rocketing up over five times in value in the last year, the share price is still down 88% from its all-time high. That high was reached in 2007 too, showing the unfortunate reality of anyone who was excited about this tech a couple of decades ago. We’re now 18 years on and investors who picked the wrong time have lost a lot of money.

Ceres Power gets its name from Ceres, the Roman goddess of agriculture. Is that name a portentous sign of future growth in the share price? Could investors be looking at a bountiful harvest once this new technology hits the mainstream? Only time will tell for sure. But I think the stock is worth considering for those aware of the risks.

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But a three-fold increase in just a few months? That’s pretty rare! And yet, that’s exactly what happened to Ceres Power Holdings (LSE: CWR), the £720m fuel cell technology company that recently joined the index.

The share price is up over 200% in the past three months, rising from around 100p in mid-September to over 300p today! So what’s driving this insane growth and does it present an investment opportunity?  I had to find out.

A power-hungry partnership

Ceres’ recent fortunes have been primarily driven by a significant manufacturing license deal with Weichai Power, a major Chinese power systems developer. This agreement allows Weichai to produce Ceres’ proprietary solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology for stationary power systems, targeting fast-growing markets such as AI data centres, commercial buildings and industrial applications.

The deal not only strengthens and expands an existing partnership but adds a major global manufacturing partner to Ceres’ portfolio.

On top of that, it positions the company to capitalise on a multi-billion-dollar opportunity in clean energy solutions. But the true value of the deal will only be realised in 2026 — a potential reason why investors are scrambling to get a foot in the door early.

Naturally, all this hype comes with some risks that can’t be ignored. The Weichai deal certainly looks good on paper, but Ceres still faces some real challenges.

For starters, its near-term revenue visibility’s unclear, with FY2025 revenues expected to be flat (or declining). This is due to one-off license fees and delays in revenue recognition. The company also operates in a competitive, rapidly evolving clean energy space where technology adoption rates and regulatory policies can impact growth.

So while the new deal promises growth, investors should avoid pricing in unrealised revenue. The company’s valuation is already sky high as a result of this, which could lead to volatility if growth expectations aren’t met.

The bottom line

A 200%+ price gain’s hard to ignore — growth like that doesn’t just materialise from hype alone. But while there’s certainly an exciting development here, it may be a ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ situation.

Investors should be cautious about the potential of a sharp correction if things don’t pan out as planned. On top of that, there’s broader market risks affecting clean tech stocks, including economic downturns and shifts in government incentives.

Overall, the Weichai deal has been a transformative growth catalyst for Ceres Power but the price now looks overvalued. For investors looking for long-term exposure to what may be a groundbreaking green energy company, it’s worth considering. However, I’d tread carefully and allocate it as a small portion of a larger, diversified portfolio.

Right now, green energy’s facing considerable challenges but I think its long-term prospects remain promising. For those interested, there are other opportunities on the UK market worth looking into.

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My own portfolio is built around FTSE 100 shares, but I’ve been on the lookout for a smaller, faster-growing company, and Ceres is an astonishing stand out. Naturally, that also ramps up the risk.

Ceres shares have the power

It’s a British clean energy technology leader specialising in solid oxide fuel cells for hydrogen production and efficient power generation. Its tech puts it at the forefront of the decarbonisation push, with the potential to bring green hydrogen production costs closer to fossil fuel levels in a few years.

The story gathered momentum up on 28 July when its South Korean partner Doosan Fuel Cell began mass production of solid oxide fuel cell systems using Ceres’ proprietary technology. That was a major milestone for the partnership and suggested that Ceres’ tech is ready for serious commercial use. Analysts expect royalty payments from Doosan to build in 2026.

Then on 5 November, Ceres signed a manufacturing licence agreement with Weichai Power, a global equipment manufacturer based in Shandong, China. The deal gives Ceres a further foothold in Asia-Pacific and could speed up commercial deployment thanks to Weichai’s familiarity with the technology. At least one further licence partner is anticipated next year.

Investment risks and rewards

The potential rewards are massive and there’s an AI link too, as Ceres aims to match energy-hungry data centres with flexible and greener power solutions. With a market cap of just £710m, the opportunity here could be huge.

However, investors would have to be brave to consider buying today after such a strong run. Growth shares can build momentum of their own until everything goes south. Ceres looks completely binary. Either the tech scales successfully, the licences multiply, and royalties flow, or some hitch derails everything. Also, deals with Chinese companies carry risk, particularly around intellectual property. Many Western companies now fight shy of the country.

I think someone investing today should watch for new licence deals and the first royalty revenues from Doosan and others. That’s when this share could move from a speculative spike to a real earnings story. It’s not for the faint-hearted.

Investors might consider buying today, it all depends on their appetite for risk. But they must also accept that the big gains may have already been made, and the scope for big potential losses if the shares retreat. It’s all too much for me. I’m arriving to this party just too late. For now, I’ll sit on the sidelines and watch.

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That’s what recently happened with Ceres Power Holdings (LSE: CWR), up 50% this month and over 100% since early October.

I could curse myself for not buying the shares earlier, but honestly, this lesser-known hydrogen producer wasn’t even on my radar. So why did it just take off and, more importantly, will it keep going?

A clean energy specialist

Ceres Power Holdings is a British clean energy technology leader. It specialises in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) for hydrogen production and power generation.

Unfortunately, I’m not a chemical engineer so I can’t claim to understand much of the details. But essentially, the business is all about decarbonisation and clean energy. In my view, initiatives like this are only going to gain popularity as more nations pivot towards renewable energy.

Despite its small size, Ceres is reportedly at the forefront of this transition, with breakthrough technology rivalling conventional manufacturers in terms of efficiency and cost.

It aims to bring green hydrogen production costs down to $1.5/kg, making it cost-competitive with fossil fuel alternatives by 2026. Considering that high cost is a key issue for renewable energy implementations, that would be a huge win.

But that’s not why the shares soared over 100% this past month. The real win came from a deal with one of the world’s hungriest energy consumers.

Powering AI

Unsurprisingly, the main reason for the boost is linked to artificial intelligence (AI) — in particular, AI in China. Last week, the shares surged after further details emerged regarding a fresh licensing agreement with Weichai Power — its largest Chinese shareholder.

Weichai will manufacture Ceres’ SOFCs and stacks for stationary power and data centre applications in China, directly addressing the massive energy requirements driven by the rapid growth of AI infrastructure.

The ‘powering AI’ narrative, combined with the promise of recurring licensing revenue, catapulted the stock to new heights. It’s now the top-performing stock on the FTSE 250 over the past six months.

So the question is: are the gains now priced in – or could it keep going?

Fundamentals and valuation

The valuation now looks understandably stretched, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.78. That’s very high compared to sector peers but reveals confidence in future growth.

Encouragingly, its balance sheet looks healthy, with low debt of £78m, strong equity, and a growing asset base.

In 2024, revenues more than doubled to £51.9m, with gross profit rising substantially to £40.2m. Most promising were overall losses narrowed to £28.3m from £54m a year prior, demonstrating progress toward break-even as new contracts pour in.

Overall, I think Ceres Power is a growth stock with excellent long-term protentional. However, the best short-term gains are probably behind us. What’s more, the high valuation could lead to short-term volatility.

Still, for investors keen on both AI and green energy exposure, it’s a compelling stock to consider. It’s certainly one I’ll be keeping a close eye on, with an aim to buy in 2026 if the Weichai deal delivers on the hype.

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I last wrote about Ceres at the end of July, when I said the stock might be underappreciated at 143p and therefore worth considering. Fast-forward just three months, the share price is now at 380p! 

Zooming further out, though, the stock is still 76% lower than a 2021 peak of 1,576p. So, could it have further to run?

Back in vogue

Ceres is a clean energy company that has developed advanced solid oxide fuel cell technology for hydrogen and electricity production. But rather than doing the heavy grunt work of manufacturing and distribution, the firm licences its fuel cell design to partners worldwide.

This capital-light approach holds the promise of higher profitability one day. It’s an important differentiator.

Hydrogen stocks are back in vogue after a few years in the wilderness. Bloom Energy, which is a market leader in building hydrogen fuel cell systems, is up 452% year to date (and more than 1,000% in 12 months).

The key catalyst driving these shares higher is artificial intelligence (AI). Or, more specifically, the numerous data centres that are being built worldwide to support the explosive growth in power-hungry AI systems. Fuel cell stacks allow the generation of cleaner, reliable electricity onsite.

Strap in for a turbulent ride

Now, it’s important to note that Ceres is still someway behind Bloom Energy, which is close to entering consistent profitability. In 2024, Ceres reported a £28.3m net loss on revenue of £52m. And analysts don’t expect bottom-line profits to materialise before 2028.

Moreover, while six out of the seven brokers covering the stock (85% of them) rate it a Buy, the average share price target among them is 276p. This is roughly 27% below the current level.

Another thing worth highlighting is that manufacturing licencing deals can result in lumpy financial results. In September, Ceres lowered its 2025 sales guidance to £32m, citing uncertainty over “timing of revenue recognition“.

Further to run?

Based on the current £57.4m revenue forecast for 2026, the stock’s forward price-to-sales multiple is around 12.5. So this isn’t a cheap share, as things stand.

Over the longer term though, I think there’s a lot to like here. The company already has excellent manufacturing partnerships across Asia with Doosan Fuel Cell in South Korea, Thermax in India, and Japan’s Denso.

In July, Doosan entered mass production using Ceres’ technology. And today (5 November), China’s Weichai Power (Ceres’ largest shareholder) said it will build a manufacturing facility to produce cells and stacks to help power AI data centres. Revenue from this will likely be booked in 2026.

Looking ahead, I think the stock’s run could continue, and Goldman Sachs agrees. The bank has just hiked its price target to 480p from 246p, adding Ceres to its European conviction list.

Investors should expect significant volatility. But I still think the stock is worth considering for the long term, especially on dips.

According to Goldman Sachs, AI will drive a 165% rise in data centre power demand by 2030.

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Ceres develops fuel cell technology, and has had a few false starts so far. The share price is still down about 80% since its five-year high in early 2021.

So what’s behind this new potential kickstart? It’s the same thing that’s powered Nvidia to a $5trn market-cap. We’re talking artificial intelligence (AI).

Fuel cell boost

Ceres’ solid oxide fuel cells aim at clean-energy applications with high and intermittent power needs. It includes things like portable power, mains power stabilisation… and AI data centres.

Korea’s Doosan Fuel Cell has begun ramping up production of Ceres’ fuel cell stacks. The aim is to produce a 50MW generational capacity each year. As Ceres puts it, it “marks the world’s first Ceres metal supported solid oxide fuel cell and systems facility to come on-stream“. First sales are expected before the end of 2025.

In the words of Doosan CEO Doosoon Lee: “Fuel cells, a clean energy solution, are gaining attention as an optimal alternative to various power demands triggered by AI, including data centres.”

A new beginning?

But there’s something bubbling away in the background we need to address. The bubble reference is deliberate — it’s what many think AI stocks are doing at the moment.

And we’ve definitely seen a bit of a worrying strategy developing — ‘look, a good news story about AI, let’s pile in!’ But how long before ‘a bad news story about AI, let’s pile out and run for the hills’?

There are clearly a good few AI-boosted companies whose long-term business models look solid and whose stock valuations aren’t astronomical. But in any new technology boom, the path’s likely to be littered with the companies that don’t make the big time. We need to avoid being among them.

Where’s the profit?

Ceres isn’t profitable yet. The first half of the current year saw an £11.3bn adjusted EBITDA loss. And the consensus among analysts still doesn’t suggest any profit by 2027.

Still, at the interim stage, Ceres had cash and short-term investments of £104m. And the company doesn’t face the high costs of manufacturing. With operating costs of £35.6m in the half, I don’t see any likely cash flow problems.

Broker forecasts are often quickly out of date. Some have already voiced hopes of Ceres turning profitable and cash-flow positive by 2027, or even 2026.

At the end of October, UBS lifted its price target to 350p, from 120p. And in early November, Goldman Sachs set a new target of 480p. These two would suggest potential gains of anything between 18% and 62%.

My verdict

So where does that leave us? With the absence of profit so far, a volatile share price history, possible AI bubble sentiment… Ceres has its risks. But the long-term potential makes me think growth investors could do well to consider it now.

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Of course, that doesn’t mean it will keep climbing in November. Profit takers have already started to emerge, and Ceres has shown it can be volatile. It’s up 360% in six months, but only 33% over the year, and down 62% over five years. It looks like this one could be a rollercoaster ride.

Ceres has the power

Ceres develops solid oxide fuel cell and electrolyser technology for clean power generation and green hydrogen production. They’re designed for AI data centres, industrial buildings, electricity grid stabilisation and cleaner marine power. The company operates a technology licensing model, which keeps it asset-light and strengthens its financial position.

In July, Ceres got a boost when strategic partner Doosan Fuel Cell began mass production of fuel cell stacks in South Korea using its technology. These stacks will power clean energy systems in high-growth markets like AI data centres. Doosan anticipates the first sale by year end. If it comes through, this will be the first royalty revenues Ceres gets. It’s a big opportunity for investors seeking a riskier FTSE 250 growth play.

Huge AI potential

Ceres has a market cap of £520m but isn’t yet profitable. Last year it lost £28.3m. Revenue for 2024 climbed 132% to £51.9m, supported by record orders of £112.8m from new partnerships in Asia.

Yet on 26 September this year, the shares fell after it cut full-year 2025 sales guidance by nearly 40% due to delays in a new manufacturing licence agreement. The board pinned that on strong comparatives following a significant one-off licence with partner Delta in 2024. It didn’t stop investors from chasing the chares higher last month.

Then on Wednesday (29 October), Swiss Bank UBS nearly tripled its share price target from 120p to 350p and upgraded Ceres to Buy, citing accelerating demand for its solid oxide fuel cell technology and a better financial outlook.

Long-term potential

UBS expects the company to break even in 2026, a year earlier than previously forecast, thanks to cost cuts and that royalty income from Doosan. The bank sees Ceres capturing up to 10% of a growing AI data centre segment potentially worth £50bn by 2030. Low capital intensity and cash burn could leave the company with a £50m cash buffer in 2026 before turning cash-flow positive in 2027, it reckons.

The Ceres share price jumped 16% on Wednesday (29 October) to 306p but ended the week at 277p, including a 7.64% drop on Friday. Profit takers, presumably.

Six out of seven analysts rating Ceres in the past three months labelled it a Strong Buy, one said Hold. Their consensus one-year price forecast is 275.8p, just 3% above today’s level. Of course, most estimates will have been made before the recent surge.

Given the large risks, I think it’s only worth considering for experienced investors with a portfolio that can handle swings. I’m watching the shares carefully and may consider buying if they slide a little from here. I’d feel safer buying after a dip than a spike.

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What’s caused this epic jump? And with the stock still 90% off a 2021 peak, might it be time for investors to consider getting involved?

Milestone announcement

Ceres creates innovative solid oxide fuel cell and electrolyser technology for use in clean power generation and green hydrogen production. Applications include artificial intelligence (AI) data centres, industrial buildings, electricity grid stabilisation, and marine power (as a cleaner alternative for ships). 

What I like here is that the company operates a technology licensing model. As Ceres puts it: “Using our intellectual property (IP) and trade secrets, we accelerate our partners’ entry into global decarbonisation opportunities. As we build a portfolio of manufacturing partnerships, our asset-light business model underpins our strong financial position”. 

This has started to bear fruit, as yesterday marked a major milestone for the company. It announced that strategic partner Doosan Fuel Cell has started mass production of fuel cell stacks in South Korea using Ceres’ technology. These will power clean energy systems in fast-growing markets like AI data centres, which are mushrooming globally as the AI revolution gathers pace. 

Doosan Fuel Cell anticipates the first sale by the end of the year. Crucially, this will mean Ceres starts earning its first royalty revenues. And this is the exciting development that’s sent the stock surging. 

Improving financials

The company’s been developing its internet protocol (IP) for a couple of decades now. Revenue’s gone from £15.3m in 2019 to £51.9m last year.

Given that commercialisation is only just getting underway, it’s no surprise that Ceres remains unprofitable at this stage. Last year, it lost £28.3m. This lack of profitability is the biggest risk here, as the business model isn’t yet proven.

However, it’s worth noting that the loss last year was down significantly from the previous two years. And analysts forecast less red ink moving forward. In other words, the City doesn’t see ballooning losses on the horizon, and if royalty streams start flowing in regularly, the economics of the business could improve quickly.

At the end of 2024, Ceres had a net cash position of around £102m, providing a decent buffer to support its growth plans. That figure makes up around a third of the company’s £285m market-cap.

Is Ceres a buy for me?

Is this a hidden gem at 151p? It may well be if the company’s other partners also soon start producing and commercialising clean energy systems.

Ceres operates a non-exclusive licensing model, which has allowed it to partner with Delta Electronics in Taiwan, Japan’s Denso, China’s Weichai Power, and Thermax in India. The long-term decarbonisation opportunity across Asia’s simply enormous.

Looking ahead, I fully expect the UK firm to secure more licence partners, and therefore make progress towards profitability. The value of its IP may be very underappreciated right now.

Therefore, adventurous investors looking for a renewable energy stock might want to consider Ceres at 143p. As for me, I’m going to put it on my watchlist and wait for the company’s first-half results which are due in September.

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