The surge in global defence spending since that moment has driven one of the most sustained re‑ratings anywhere in the FTSE 100. It has pushed BAE’s order book, earnings visibility and cash generation to record levels.

But NATO members have now pledged to lift combined defence budgets to 5% of GDP by 2035, up from around 2% last year. It is an increase worth roughly $423bn (£314bn) a year across non‑US members alone. And as Europe’s largest defence contractor and the world’s sixth‑largest, BAE sits at the centre of this shift.

So is now the time for me to add to my holding in BAE?

Where’s the value going to come from?

Over the long run, earnings growth creates real shareholder value, not short‑term market swings. And the companies that can expand revenues, margins and cash flow consistently are the ones whose share prices tend to benefit most.

A risk to BAE is any delay on major long‑cycle defence programmes, which can squeeze margins and slow cash conversion. Another is a fault in a key product line, which could be expensive to remedy and potentially damage the firm’s reputation.

That said, consensus analysts’ forecasts are that BAE’s earnings will grow an average 12% a year over the medium term. This looks well supported by its recently-released 2025 results. These showed underlying earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) rise 12% year on year to £3.3bn, while sales increased 10% to £30.7bn.

Free cash flow stayed strong at £2.16bn, despite higher R&D investment, while order intake of £36.8bn drove the backlog to a record £83.6bn. This reflected robust demand across air, maritime, electronic systems and US platforms.

Management forecasts increases this year of 9%-11% in EBIT and 7%-9% in sales. Free cash flow is projected at over £1.3bn.

Are the shares still undervalued right now?

For a business like BAE, forward‑looking relative measures matter far more than backward‑looking ones. This is because defence spending, order visibility and margin guidance all shape future earnings in a way past valuations simply cannot capture.

On the key forward price-to-earnings ratio, the firm’s 28.8 is bottom of its competitor group, which averages 32.4. These firms comprise L3Harris Technologies at 30.4, Rolls-Royce at 31.1, TransDigm at 32.7, and RTX at 35.2.

So despite its huge share price gains since 2022, BAE is still undervalued on this measure.

It is even more pronounced in its forward price-to-sales ratio of 2 against its peers’ average of 4.1. And it also looks a bargain at a price-to-book ratio of 5.7 compared to the 14.3 average of its competitors.

Taken together, these relative measures suggest that even after its powerful multi‑year rally, BAE still trades at a meaningful discount to its global peers.

My investment view

Despite the multi‑year rally in the share price, the stock still looks materially cheaper than comparable defence majors. And with earnings and cash flow now underpinned by multi‑year government commitments, the outlook remains strong.

That is exactly the kind of set-up I look for, so I will add to my holding very shortly. In the meantime, other undervalued high-growth stocks have also caught my eye.

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The Iran conflict has taken things up another notch, pushing defence stocks higher still. They’ve provided valuable diversification for investors, me included, at a time when many other holdings have been hit by events in Iran.

BAE Systems shares are up 40% over the last year and 335% over five years, with dividends on top. It’s a remarkable performance. Long-term investors will be delighted, even if the circumstances driving those gains are less welcome.

Given recent events in the Middle East, investors might expect BAE Systems shares to have surged over the past month. But they’ve been broadly flat.

The FTSE 100 is flying today

Why? Valuation could be one reason. With a price-to-earnings ratio nudging 30, some investors may feel there’s limited upside left in the short term. I’ve held the shares for several years, and while performance has been strong overall, there have been periods of consolidation as investors wait for the next leg higher. Shares rarely move in a straight line.

It’s also worth comparing BAE with its smaller FTSE 100 peer, Babcock International Group. Long-term performance there has been even stronger, with the shares up 60% over the past year and more than 400% over five years. Yet, interestingly, Babcock shares have fallen 16% over the past month. Similar forces may be at play. Like BAE shares, they no longer look especially cheap.

There’s also a broader question. While Western European countries are under pressure to increase defence spending, can they really afford to, given the strain on public finances? We’re seeing that domestically. The UK government faces calls to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP, but progress has been slow, frustrating suppliers. Politicians are not exactly flush with cash these days.

This morning, the FTSE 100 is up 1.75% on hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East. Among the biggest risers is Rolls-Royce Holdings, which also has defence exposure. Its shares are up 6.8%. Babcock is close behind, rising 5.5%.

Defence stocks still in demand

That’s slightly surprising. I would have expected defence stocks to fall on peace hopes. Perhaps this suggests investors believe uncertainty will persist, particularly if Iran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz. Add in concerns about the future of NATO, with Donald Trump raising doubts about his commitment, and the case for sustained European defence spending remains strong.

Despite this, BAE Systems shares have edged up just 1%. They’re not fully participating in the latest rally. Again, valuation may be the sticking point. BAE offers reliable revenues and a substantial order book, providing strong earnings visibility. But after such a powerful run, the shares may simply need time to consolidate.

That doesn’t diminish the long-term story. I still see BAE Systems as a high-quality, core holding. However, in the short term, investors might consider holding back. There are plenty of exciting growth opportunities elsewhere in the FTSE 100. Despite this morning’s bounce, I think many still look attractively priced.

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With revenue hitting £28.3bn and rising to £33bn in 2026, the momentum’s still there operationally. It has a near-unrivalled position across submarines, combat aircraft, electronic warfare and cyber security. It’s a genuinely exceptional business.

The snag, as ever, is the price. BAE now trades on 24 times forward earnings. The analyst consensus target sits just 10% above the current price. This doesn’t make BAE a bad investment — but it does mean investors are paying a full price for a well-known story.

Long-term defence contracts are a really strong place to be. However, there’s definitely some risk attached to the valuation.

Under-the-radar alternative

This next one’s a very different kind of company. It’s small, American, and almost entirely off the radar for UK investors. Innovative Aerosystems (NASDAQ:ISSC) makes advanced avionic systems for commercial, business, and military aircraft. This includes the F-16 digital flight control computer and a new customisable cockpit platform called the Liberty Flight Deck.

Formerly called Innovative Solutions and Support, there’s a lot going for it. The operating margin of 29.4% is market leading and the balance sheet is rock solid. However, it’s trading at 26.7 times forward earnings.

But here’s the real thesis: management’s set a long-term target of $250m in revenue with EBITDA margins of 25%-30%. Current revenue is around $90m.

If they get anywhere close to that, the stock looks extraordinarily cheap by those future standards. Only three brokers cover it, which is arguably the point: analysts haven’t caught up yet.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t risk though. A pull-forward of F-16 revenue from 2026 into 2025 means near-term numbers may look soft. It’s also a small company and very volatile.

Nonetheless, if it can hit those targets, we’re looking at a stock that’s trading around 7-8 times forward earnings (it’s just a few years away).

Often overlooked

Most investors won’t have heard of Innovative Aerosystems, but they will know Airbus. It’s a quality company and one half of the only viable global duopoly in commercial aviation. Boeing‘s well-documented troubles have contributed to give Airbus a backlog that stretches years into the future and pricing power it hasn’t enjoyed in decades.

What’s interesting is that despite this structural advantage, the stock’s been derated meaningfully. On 2027 numbers, it trades on 18 times earnings, falling to under 15 times by 2028. The balance sheet also carries net cash of over €12bn. The 2.1% dividend yield is also worth watching.

The main risk is operational rather than strategic. Airbus has struggled persistently to ramp up production rates to match its order book, with supply chain bottlenecks a stubborn constraint.

Nonetheless, like ISSC, it’s well worth considering from a valuation perspective. I also like BAE, but the richer valuation suggests investors should think carefully about the entry price.

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But when it comes to tax-efficient investing in the stock market, which investment vehicle is the best at building wealth? And if someone invests £5,000 today, how much money could they expect to have in five years’ time?

SIPP vs ISA

Both a SIPP and a Stocks and Shares ISA are powerful investing tools. They both grant immunity from capital gains and dividend taxes. And the SIPP takes things one step further with wonderful tax relief.

But which type of account should investors prioritise? The answer very much depends on what an investor’s objectives are. Someone looking to build tax-free wealth but also needs easy and instant access is likely better served with an ISA. Why? Because money put into a SIPP’s locked away until the age of 55 (or 57 as of 2028).

On the other hand, those building wealth for retirement might be far better served with a SIPP. Even though this only defers taxes rather than avoids them entirely, the initial tax relief can actually make a portfolio grow much faster compared to a Stocks and Shares ISA.

Let’s crunch the numbers.

Investing £5,000 for five years

Let’s say a 52-year-old has just invested £5,000 in a portfolio that will go on to deliver a 10% annualised return. Inside an ISA, that £5,000 compounds into £8,227, which the investor can withdraw at any time and enjoy entirely tax-free.

But if that same portfolio was held inside a SIPP, the outcome’s more exciting. Immediately, the £5,000 is topped up to £6,250 by the UK government through tax relief. And when £6,250 is invested for five years at 10%, it compounds into £10,283.

Assuming the investor has already used up their £12,570 income tax allowance, that means withdrawing this money from their SIPP will trigger taxes. Pension rules allow for 25% to be withdrawn tax-free, with the rest charged at 20%.

The net result: £8,741. That’s £514 more than what a Stocks and Shares ISA would have provided, even with deferred taxes thrown into the mix.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.

A 10% growth opportunity?

Regardless of whether using an ISA or a SIPP, investors still need to find attractive investment opportunities. And looking at the latest recommendations from institutional investors, it seems that BAE Systems (LSE:BA.) could be worth considering.

The defence contractor’s already on a rampage thanks to a record order book of £83.6bn. With NATO and other European nations ramping up their defence spending in an ever geopolitically complex world, the company has already secured enough contracts to keep it busy for the next several years.

Of course, nothing’s ever risk-free. A rapidly growing order book is only healthy if BAE Systems can keep delivering these on time. If production capacity constraints result in delays, orders may be cancelled or worse, re-assigned to rivals.

It’s a risk that investors will need to consider carefully. But with an impressive track record under its belt, BAE Systems looks well-positioned to thrive in the coming years. That’s why I think this defence stock is worth a closer look. And it’s not the only opportunity to explore today.

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Unfortunately, the original catalyst for this outperformance was the dreadful invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. This kickstarted a sudden reprioritising of European defence spending, as nations realised that large-scale land wars in Europe were not a thing of the past.

Sadly, war is likely to be around as long as people are. But the level of geopolitical instability in recent years has risen sharply, with the war in Iran that started at the end of February being the latest example.

In theory, the situation in Iran should have given BAE stock a boost. The war in Russia certainly did, as did the US military operation in Venezuela in early 2026.

But since the conflict started, the FTSE 100 defence stock has actually declined slightly. And anyone who invested £7,500 in BAE 10 days ago would now have just £6,620 after an 11.7% correction.

Why is the stock down?

Even after the recent dip, BAE stock isn’t cheap, trading at 25 times this year’s forecast earnings. So it’s likely investors have been taking some profits off the table (the dividend yield is only 1.7% today).

However, another key problem is rising energy and fuel prices. Not only does this environment make it more expensive for BAE to manufacture and ship equipment like tanks, combat vehicles and artillery, it has also heaped further pressure on cash-strapped governments.

Since the Iran war started, yields on government debt across European countries have spiked. The 10-year UK gilt yield has jumped from 4.2% to more than 5%.

In other words, UK borrowing costs have reached their highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Where will the UK and Europe get the cash to fund their ambitious defence spending targets?

This question is worrying the market.

I think BAE will be fine

Then again, air defence stockpiles are coming under pressure due to the wars in Ukraine and Iran, while threats to national security continue to grow worldwide. So I don’t think rising bond yields change the growth story here.

For example, will Gulf states want to beef up security after Iran’s drone attacks across the region? My strong suspicion is yes. BAE is one of the most important defence partners for cash-rich Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday (25 March), Turkey signed a multi-billion-pound agreement in London for training and parts support for its first batch of British-built fighter jets.

The defence giant ended 2025 with an order backlog of £83.6bn, with products spanning land, sea, air, cyber and space. The business is also exceptionally well-run under CEO Charles Woodburn.

I still hold the BAE shares I first bought in 2022, and I think they’ll continue doing fine long term. However, given the elevated valuation, I’m not looking to add to my position today.

If the pullback extends to 20%–25% (around £18 per share), then I will start to get really interested. But until that happens, I see better FTSE 100 opportunities about.

The post £7,500 invested in BAE Systems shares 10 days ago is now worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Both look like obvious go-to stocks as Middle East tensions escalate further. Yet anyone expecting them to be flying right now will be in for a surprise. BAE Systems and Babcock have both slipped over the last week, in Babcock’s case by 7.5%. So what’s going on?

Booming FTSE 100 sector

It certainly isn’t because tensions are easing. The FTSE 100 is in correction territory having dropped more than 10% since Iran tensions exploded. It’s plunging today as energy infrastructure comes under threat, raising the risk of an oil price spike or even shortages. More countries risk being drawn into conflict. Yet defence stocks are drifting.

Markets never move in straight lines, and neither do individual shares. Even in bull markets or crashes, there are pauses. That may be part of it. But there’s more going on.

Valuation is an obvious issue. After such powerful runs, both stocks look expensive. BAE Systems’ price-to-earnings ratio is pushing towards 30, well above the FTSE 100 average of around 17. Babcock isn’t far behind.

There may also be a technical factor at play. After such strong gains, some investors may be taking profits and rotating into sectors that have been left behind. With many FTSE 100 stocks now trading at bargain valuations, capital is being redeployed. That may have knocked demand for defence stocks, even while the underlying story remains intact.

Both still have plenty to offer. BAE Systems’ full-year results in February showed underlying operating profit up 12% to £3.32bn in 2025, beating forecasts. Its order backlog hit a record £83.6bn, while net debt fell 22% to £3.84bn.

Babcock’s latest full-year results, published in November, saw underlying operating profit up 19% to £201m, with a contract backlog of £9.9bn.

Investors chasing bargains

Investors may be waiting for the next catalyst before pushing shares higher. Fresh results or major contract wins would help. Government spending is another factor. The UK faces pressure to increase defence budgets, but is short of cash. The same dilemma applies across Europe, with the exception of Germany. Politicians may prioritise competing demands such as protecting households from rising energy costs.

If governments do commit to sustained increases in defence spending, or if tensions escalate further, the sector’s earnings visibility would strengthen. That could draw investors back in.

The defence rally has already priced in a lot of good news, and it’s struggling to push to the next level. At current valuations, it’s easy to see why investors are cautious. I’m wary myself. I hold BAE Systems shares and wouldn’t dream of selling them. But I’m looking elsewhere for my next opportunity. There are so many bargains on the FTSE 100 today, I hardly know where to start…

The post Are investors running scared of Babcock and BAE Systems shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Some of the biggest concerns include:

• Further escalation of military conflict around the globe.
• Global energy market shock due to oil & gas supply chain disruptions in the Middle East.
• Global trade disruptions triggered by US tariffs.
• An artificial intelligence (AI) bubble potentially bursting as promised returns on investment fail to materialise.
• Sticky inflation leaving interest rates higher for longer, pressuring low-earning consumers into more debt.
• Sky-high valuations are setting the stage for volatility, particularly among US stocks.

This is all understandably concerning. So what should UK investors do to protect their portfolios?

Keep calm, carry on

Even if disaster strikes, UK investors are already in a more favourable position compared to US investors. That’s because, despite the FTSE 100 trading near record highs, UK shares remain fundamentally undervalued compared to international markets.

At the same time, the majority of the FTSE 100’s profits come from more defensive industries such as energy, miners, banks, and healthcare. That doesn’t mean UK large-cap stocks are bulletproof, but they are at least wearing some body armour.

As such, for British investors trying to navigate all the chaos of the stock market today, the best strategy largely remains unchanged. Don’t try to time the market, and instead focus on building a diversified portfolio of high-quality businesses spanning multiple geographies and sectors.

With that in mind, what are some defensive UK stocks that investors should consider?

A standout performer?

A defensive category for investors to consider in 2026 is, ironically, defence. With NATO countries committing to increasing their defence spending, fuelled by geopolitical uncertainty, this sector’s benefiting from multi-year structural tailwinds right now. And of the listed defence companies, BAE Systems (LSE:BA.) stands out as a popular pick among the experts.

As one of the world’s largest defence groups, BAE Systems lies at the heart of NATO militaries, helping build fighter jets, nuclear-powered submarines, armoured vehicles, and even supplying cybersecurity solutions. And using its scale advantage, management’s already grown its order backlog to a record £83.6bn!

That’s enough to keep the business busy for the next three years, even if geopolitical tensions start to cool. But, despite the compelling growth outlook, there are some key risks for investors to consider.

From a valuation perspective, BAE shares have seen a rapid surge, signalling that much of the anticipated growth could already be priced in. At the same time, while the order book’s undeniably impressive, delivering on those orders on time and on budget could be a challenge, especially for complex projects like nuclear submarines.

Delays and cost overruns could put significant strain on profit margins, especially if supply chain disruptions enter the mix.

Nevertheless, for investors looking for a defensive defence opportunity in an increasingly uncertain stock market, BAE shares could be worth a closer look. And it’s not the only business that shows promise.

The post Everyone’s panicking about a stock market crash! Here’s what I’ll do if it happens appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

I think the defence giant could keep on soaring. Here are just four reasons why.

1. Rising instability

War in the Middle East has supercharged BAE Systems’ share price more recently. But it’s not an isolated conflict of course — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago kicked off this new age of geopolitics, and with it the defence sector boom.

Things threaten to become more unstable, too, driving weapons spending steadily higher. Fears over Chinese and Russian expansionism in the West continue to grow. And this week, President Trump said the US could soon be “taking over” Cuba following its recent operations in Iran and Venezuela.

2. European boost

Spending might remain especially high on the agenda for European countries, which could be to the benefit of local companies like BAE Systems. European defence budgets soared 17% in 2024, according to latest statistics. But with arsenals still well below Cold War levels, there remains significant scope for further growth.

Concerns over dwindling US support for NATO is also boosting spending by European nations. These fears rose again this week after Trump’s comments that NATO faces a “very bad” future if America’s allies fail to help its Middle East operations. Against this backcloth, continental defence budgets only appear to be heading one way.

3. Wide footprint

Defence spending is especially high on the agenda in the UK, which — as one would expect — should be especially beneficial for British contractors. As for BAE Systems, it sources 27% of revenues from the Ministry of Defence.

However, the company’s geographic footprint is extensive, which is a major advantage in my opinion. As a major seller to the US, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Mainland Europe, too, it’s not dependent on one territory to drive earnings. Given the rising strain on the UK’s public finances, this is a major advantage in my view.

4. Discount valuation

Though it has soared in value, BAE Systems’ shares still trade at a discount to the broader European defence industry. At 25.2 times, the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits below an average of 35-36 for its continental peers. This could help the Footsie contractor outperform the sector.

Sure, BAE’s P/E is more than double the FTSE 100 average as well. But I think this premium valuation is deserved given the industry outlook.

Bottom line

Having said that, BAE Systems faces significant challenges that could impact the share price. Supply chain issues remain, and could in fact worsen depending on geopolitical developments. It also faces immense competition from other industry heavyweights to grow earnings.

So are BAE Systems shares a buy, then? I think they’re worth serious consideration, and especially given the stock’s ability to thrive despite those pressures I’ve described (underlying sales and earnings jumped 10% and 12% in 2025). On balance, I think it’s one of the hottest FTSE 100 growth shares right now.

The post 4 great reasons to consider BAE Systems shares today! appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

As the tragic war rolls on, it’s probable (in my view) that BAE shares will keep appreciating. But the US/Israel-Iran conflict isn’t the only reason the FTSE firm could keep climbing. Fears of Russian and Chinese foreign policy in the West are likely to keep driving defence stocks skywards.

At £23.10, BAE’s share price is has surged 1,710% since the Ukraine war kicked off in early 2022. It’s also up 45% over the past year. Can it keep rising over the coming 12 months? I may be confident, bu right now City analysts aren’t so sure.

Still rising

Today 18 brokers have ratings on the defence company. The average share price target is £22.72 per share which, after further strong gains on Thursday (12 March), is down 1% from current levels.

On one hand, this is perhaps unsurprising given BAE Systems’ valuation. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 28.5 times, roughly double the 10-year average of 14–15.

But some analysts are confident of further healthy price gains despite that high rating. One broker has a 12-month price target of £26 per share, up 13% from current levels. With expected dividends thrown in, BAE shares could deliver a juicy total return of 15%.

My view is broker forecasts will be steadily upgraded in the coming weeks and months.

What needs to happen?

For BAE Systems to keep rising, the geopolitical instability we’ve seen in recent years will need to continue. Even then, there’s no guarantee of further price gains.

Why? For one, the defence sector remains plagued by major supply chain issues. Last month BAE warned these problems could cause “reduced productivity as a result of operational disruption, production delays and increased costs.” Signs the company is struggling to meet orders could be catastrophic for the share price, especially after recent gains.

That said, the company’s ability to manage these problems so far is a positive omen. Revenues rose 10% in 2025 to £30.7bn, while underlying operating margins increased 20 basis points to 10.8%. This pushed pre-tax profit 12% higher, to £2.9bn.

Are BAE Systems shares a possible buy?

While expensive, I think the FTSE 100 firm’s worth serious consideration today. Its order book surged £2.7bn last year to £63.1bn, further underlining its dominance in what is an extremely competitive marketplace. The company’s diverse product portfolio and wide geographic presence helps cement its place as a defence market leader.

My view is that unfortunately the world is likely to become more dangerous over the next year, not less. In this climate, weapons demand is only likely to climb, giving BAE Systems’ share price and those of other major manufacturers additional momentum.

The post Will the BAE Systems share price soar 13% by this time next year? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

The FTSE 100 giant has been flying ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. It’s shares are up 350% over five years and almost 45% in the last 12 months. Even that doesn’t make it the strongest defence performer. Fellow FTSE 100 contractor Babcock International Group has surged 486% over five years and 103% in the last year.

It’s been a terrific time to hold defence stocks, which sadly means it’s been a rotten time for world peace.

FTSE 100 growth powerhouse

Over the last month, the BAE Systems share price has jumped another 16.9%. That would have transformed a £15,000 investment into £17,535. That’s a gain of £2,535, which is impressive in a short time.

Inevitably, the shares aren’t cheap. The price-to-earnings ratio stands at around 28. Although, given current concerns, that isn’t exactly stretched. Yet nobody knows how the latest conflict will end. If diplomacy suddenly prevails, the shares could retreat just as fast. Investors buying after the latest rally are taking a risk.

Full-year results published on 18 February showed the business performing strongly. Underlying operating profit rose 12% to £3.32bn while sales climbed 10% to £30.7bn. BAE Systems also enjoys remarkable earnings visibility. Its order backlog now stands at a record £83.6bn, giving a clear pipeline of future work.

Investors weren’t completely satisfied though. Some had hoped for a share buyback that never came. Cash flow did fall slightly, although the board was still able to cut net debt by 22% to £3.84bn, further strengthening the balance sheet.

Operational risks remain. Supply chain issues and production delays continue to affect defence manufacturers and could worsen if energy prices surge again. After its huge run, some investors believe much of the good news is already reflected in the share price. Although, given the way the world is going, defence spending could stay elevated for years.

Lack of share buyback

European governments face mounting pressure to boost military investment, notably from Donald Trump. Germany plans to increase spending sharply, but other countries remain cautious. The cash-strapped UK government is under pressure to spend more on defence, but has plenty of other spending priorities.

I hold BAE Systems and it’s helped to offset losses elsewhere in my SIPP.  Today, it’s difficult to imagine a well-balanced portfolio without exposure to a major defence contractor, unless ethical concerns rule that out.

I think the shares are well worth considering with a long-term view, but the short term could be bumpy as events in the Middle East drive sentiment. But in today’s warlike world, I’m sad to say that BAE Systems is impossible to ignore. Since I already have a big stake, I won’t buy more. Instead, I’ll turn my attention to shares that have taken a beating lately, but might recover once today’s clouds lift. There are plenty out there. But only one BAE Systems.

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