Argo Blockchain (LSE: ARB) stock has plunged in value this week as the price of Bitcoin has collapsed.
After these declines, shares in the enterprise are changing hands at around 120p, which is approximately 56% below the company’s all-time closing price high of 284p reached in the middle of February.
However, despite this performance, the stock is still up nearly 3,000% over the past 12 months.
In the past, I have expressed mixed emotions towards this business.
On the one hand, I thought the organisation might continue to grow if the price of Bitcoin continued to rise. But I’m aware of the fact that cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. It’s impossible to predict where the price of Bitcoin will trade 10 years from now. As such, I’ve always believed the company is a highly speculative investment.
Nevertheless, as the stock slides, it is starting to become more appealing from a valuation perspective. Therefore, I’ve begun to wonder if I should buy Argo Blockchain stock at 120p?
Risk and reward
Successful investing is all about balancing risk and reward. One strategy I use to help balance risk and reward is to avoid overvalued stocks. Companies trading at elevated valuations can be incredibly volatile as, if they don’t live up to high growth expectations, the market can quickly turn on the business.
It seems to me, this may be what has happened with Argo Blockchain stock. As the company’s revenue has increased over the past 12 months, investors have bought in, expecting that growth to continue.
However, as the price of Bitcoin slides, the company’s growth is going to moderate. And the falling share price seems to reflect this new reality.
The problem is, it’s challenging for me to tell at this point how Argo’s top and bottom lines will develop over the next few months and years. If the price of Bitcoin increases, revenues will increase. If it continues to fall, revenues will fall. If it stays constant, the company’s revenues may increase if it can jack up mining capacity.
Unfortunately, the company has absolutely no control whatsoever over the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, I can’t tell which of the three scenarios outlined above will materialise over the next few years.
Argo Blockchain stock outlook
The price of Bitcoin has been falling recently as China has cracked down on cryptocurrency mining across the country. Some crypto specialists believe this could have a positive outcome for the industry. If it does, the outlook for the cryptocurrency industry could dramatically improve over the next few quarters.
If this happens, Argo Blockchain stock should reflect the improved outlook for the industry. We should find out more about how the crackdown will change the market over the next few months. So, I would rather wait and see how the market develops before buying a position.
Overall, I would not buy Argo Blockchain stock today at 120p. However, I will be keeping a close eye on the company to see how the industry develops, with a view to buying in at a later date if the fundamentals look attractive.
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Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Bitcoin. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.