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Why is the Eurasia Mining share price up over 1,000% this year?

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The Eurasia Mining (LSE: EUA) share price has rocketed by 1,393% in a year. Stock in the mineral exploration company started to move in October 2019. That was after management explained it was looking at selling its mining assets. Discussions with various parties continued throughout 2019 and into 2020. However, Eurasia’s management never formally put the company up for sale.

In February 2020, Eurasia Mining shares were suspended from trading on AIM. This followed social media speculation regarding a relationship with CITIC group, a state-owned investment company of the People’s Republic of China. Eurasia Mining later confirmed that the relationship was with the merchant banking arm of CITIC. This implied that the relationship was not like that between an interested buyer and seller.

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On 1 July 2020, Eurasia announced it was formally putting its assets up for sale and appointed UBS as a broker. Later that same month, the suspension was lifted, and the Eurasia Mining share price continued its climb. Last week Eurasia stock hit a new 52-week high of 44.75 pence. Investors in the company are almost certainly anticipating a buyer coming along and making them an offer they cannot refuse for their shares and the assets they control.

The value is in the ground

Eurasia has one operating platinum and gold mine at West Kytlim in Russia’s Ural mountains. There is also the Semenovsky tailings project, which is also in Russia. Here the company owns three million tonnes of sand containing around 1.2 grams per ton of gold and 20 grams per ton of silver. Eurasia claims it can recover 40% of the gold with a simple cyanide leach process.

Finally, and perhaps the jewel in the crown is the Monchetundra project, located on the Kola Peninsula, Russia, which has mainly palladium, but also platinum and gold, and some copper and nickel. In October 2020, the value of the metal in the ground there was valued at $2bn.

The West Kytlim project will need significant investment to increase production. The other two projects are non-operational, and as such, will require a lot of capital and time to get them going.

Eurasia Mining share price a buy?

At present, the Eurasia Mining share price is around 40p. Assuming a buyer comes in, shareholders will expect the total offer to at least match that. However, bids normally come with a premium attached. A shareholder that has bought in recently will certainly be hoping for a premium to make a profit.

If a takeover does happen, can investors expect a premium offer on the current share price? Well, if the Eurasia Mining’s assets are worth more than its current total market capitalisation of around £1.12bn, then there is a good case for expecting one, should a firm offer actually come in.

Buying Eurasia Mining shares today requires a belief that its assets are worth more than the company is valued at. But bear in mind the value of the metal Eurasia Mining owns will fluctuate with market prices. These values also do not reflect the investment, costs, and time required to extract and sell the metal.

Eurasia Mining is not a long-term buy for me. Either the takeover happens, or it does not. If it’s the former then a short-term gain could be made. If it’s the latter, the share price is likely to fall.

Correction (December 9th 2020): This article was amended to alter the date of the for sale process announcement from July 1, 2019, to July 1, 2020. 

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James J. McCombie has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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