The FTSE 250‘s delivered some exceptional returns over the last year. It’s gained 6.3% in value since 10 November a year ago, which — combined with a dividend yield above 3% — means investors have been able to target total returns approaching double-digit percentages.
On the one hand, the index’s rise is mighty impressive given market concerns about growth-crushing trade tariffs and rising inflation. There’s a good chance it will keep storming higher, too, given the enduring cheapness of UK mid-cap shares.
But can we expect the FTSE 250 index to hit new record highs any time soon? I asked ChatGPT for the answer, and here’s what it said.
What next?
At roughly 22,023 points, the UK’s mid-tier share index is roughly 9% below its record closing highs of 24,250.80 in September 2021. Given its strong recent momentum, a blast to fresh peaks could be possible in 2026 or 2027.
But what does ChatGPT think?
I asked it “when will the FTSE 250 hit new record highs?” Unfortunately — but unsurprisingly — it didn’t give me an answer. It said that “no one can say for sure when the index will reach a new record“.
But it did provide some insight into what might happen, commenting that
The FTSE 250 could hit a new record if the UK economy accelerates, interest rates drop, and investor sentiment shifts into domestic/mid‑cap stocks.
ChatGPT reassuringly added that “it’s not a question of ‘if’ it hits new highs in the long‑term, but more ‘when and under what conditions”.
The AI model added, however, that “given current headwinds (moderating UK growth, higher interest rates, and global macro uncertainty), its rise may be delayed“.
Thinking long term
ChatGPT ticked all of the main boxes on what could drive (or drag on) the index, but it won’t be winning any awards for its answers any time soon. They’re the sort of boilerplate statements that analysts, economists, and market commentators have been making for decades.
Predicting the near-term movements of stock markets is notoriously difficult. But as the AI said, the historical direction for the FTSE 250 is up. So it pays to take a long-term view when choosing stocks to buy, and to ignore any noise on possible short-term shifts.
A top UK share
Polar Capital Technology Trust (LSE:PCT) is one such stock I think investors need to consider. This investment trust has risen 40% over the last year, far ahead of the broader mid-cap index.
Over the last 10 years, its total return is 22.2%. Again, that’s higher that the overall index’s return (5.5%).
The breakneck returns reflect the trust’s focus on high-growth tech stocks. In total, it holds 92 (mainly US) shares, allowing it to capture the full might of the digital revolution. Explosive segments like AI, quantum computing, robotics, and autonomous vehicles are all well represented.
What’s more, Polar Capital Technology concentrates on market leaders with strong records of innovation and deep pockets. Right now, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta stock represent its three largest holdings.
Returns may come in lower during economic downturns when tech-related spending dips. But over the long term, I think the trust will continue to be an excellent wealth generator for investors.
