Here’s the forecast for 3 top dividend shares on the FTSE 100

Mark Hartley outlines the dividend forecast for three top FTSE 100 shares and evaluates their future prospects as part of an income-focused portfolio.

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When it comes to finding the best dividend shares, I look at several factors. A high yield might appear attractive at first glance, but without the right fundamentals, it can be a trap. The top dividend-paying companies should offer not only generous payouts but also sustainable cover, strong cash flow and a reliable track record.

Solid dividend cover (earnings divided by dividends paid) shows whether payouts are affordable, while consistent free cash flow ensures the company has the liquidity to meet its commitments. A long history of uninterrupted or rising dividends provides confidence in future income. Additionally, companies in defensive sectors – such as healthcare or consumer staples – tend to offer more stability.

Here are three FTSE 100 stocks that stand out in 2025 for offering a strong combination of these attributes: British American Tobacco (LSE: BATS), GSK and Schroders.

British American Tobacco

With a forward yield of 7.2%, British American Tobacco is currently one of the highest-yielding shares on the Footsie. The dividend is forecast to grow faster than the share price, reaching 263p per share by 2027, which could increase the yield to an estimated 8%.

However, the tobacco industry is under regulatory pressure, with governments imposing stricter rules on advertising, packaging and nicotine content — all of which can limit sales growth. While BAT is investing heavily in next-gen products such as vapes, the high cost of developing, marketing and scaling these alternatives could threaten profits.

That may be why the group’s payout ratio currently sits at 177%, which is a concern – it suggests it’s paying out more than it earns. Fortunately, it’s somewhat counterbalanced by a 19-year track record of uninterrupted dividend growth. This level of consistency, particularly in the defensive tobacco sector, supports the view that the dividend remains a management priority, even if earnings are under pressure in the short term.

GSK

Pharmaceuticals giant GSK offers a more balanced profile. Its yield is a more modest 4.22%, but this comes with a healthier payout ratio of 80%, indicating greater sustainability. Plus, it’s been paying dividends for over two decades, demonstrating long-term reliability.

Looking ahead, analysts expect dividends to grow to 73p per share by 2027, pushing the projected yield to 5%. As a key player in the healthcare sector, GSK’s revenues tend to be resilient even in downturns, which bodes well for future income investors.

Schroders

Schroders combines income potential with growth appeal. It currently yields a healthy 6.23%, with a payout ratio of 80%. However, dividends are forecast to dip slightly to 21p per share by 2027, while the yield’s expected to remain around 6%.

Encouragingly, it trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 13.4, making it the most attractively valued of the three. With a 20-year record of dividend payments, it offers consistency, and its valuation leaves room for capital appreciation if earnings rebound.

Sustainable investing

For investors seeking top-tier dividend shares, the real winners aren’t necessarily those with the biggest yields. Instead, the focus should be on sustainability, consistency and growth potential. I think these three FTSE 100 stocks are all worth considering as they exhibit a well-balanced mix of income reliability and long-term appeal.

As always, diversification and due diligence are essential when building a portfolio with a long-term focus.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Mark Hartley has positions in British American Tobacco P.l.c. and GSK. The Motley Fool UK has recommended British American Tobacco P.l.c., GSK, and Schroders Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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