The Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) share price has had a fairly rocky ride in 2024 so far. And it’s still some way down from its heights of 2021.
But, from the end of August to market close on the last day of September, Tesla rose by a whopping 22%. Can it go still further in October?
Deliveries
Tesla just released its Q3 delivery figures on 2 October. And these showed a 6.4% rise on the same quarter a year earlier. It’s the first quarterly increase this year, so that’s good, right?
Well, the Tesla share price fell 3.5% on the day, having dipped even lower before market close. At the time of writing the day after, it seems to be settling around $249.
The electric vehicle (EV) maker delivered 462,890 vehicles in the three months to 30 September. But Wall Street had expected more than 463,000.
That’s not much of a miss. But these days, it seems Nadaq stocks are supposed to blow through forecasts every time. And if they don’t then they’re a failure, and that can be enough to drive shareholders to dump a stock.
Chinese demand
EV hopes for the near future appear to be pinned in Chinese demand at the moment. It comes after the government in Beijing doubled the subsidies for buyers who switch to an EV or hybrid.
But the economic relationship between China and the US is not exactly sweetness and light right now. And it might even get tougher, depending on who next occupies the White House.
Tesla is still the world’s biggest maker of EVs, staying ahead of its big rivals. China’s BYD isn’t too far behind, though, delivering 443,426 vehicles in its third quarter.
Robotaxi
This sales update isn’t the only thing on the Tesla calendar this month. The long-awaited robotaxi event is scheduled for 10 October.
Elon Musk reckons it’s going to be a big day, calling it “one for the history books“. He would think so, of course. But it really could be what Tesla needs to get back the attention that seems to have drifted elsewhere.
To gauge the likely size of the event, dubbed ‘We, Robot’ in the invites, the stage is set for the Warner Bros. Discovery studios in Los Angeles.
On the technology front, I think this could be a real blow-your-socks-off thing.
Be wary
But it could be a long way from a technically successful robotaxi launch, to a significant boost for bottom-line profits. I would not make a buy or sell decision on a single event like this.
On valuation, Tesla is quite tricky to work out. Forecasts put the price-to-earnings (P/E) at a sky-high 130 for the current year.
If they’re right on earnings growth, that could drop to 60 by 2026, though. And if that kind of growth continues, it could come down quite quickly.
Where might the Tesla share price go in October? I think that could be down to gut feeling more than anything more rational.
