This Neil Woodford favourite isn’t the only stock I’d sell today

G A Chester discusses two stocks that could be set to disappoint.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

The consensus among my Foolish colleagues on engineering support services group Babcock International (LSE: BAB) is uniformly bullish. Two of my fellow writers named it as their top stock in October and the view that it’s oversold and offers strong long-term value is shared by renowned fund manager Neil Woodford, who holds it in both his Equity Income and Income Focus funds.

City analysts are forecasting earnings per share (EPS) of 82.55p for its financial year to 31 March 2018, followed by 86.4p for fiscal 2019. At a share price of 675p, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are in the bargain basement at 8.2 and 7.8, while well-covered forecast dividends of 29.45p and 30.85p give tasty yields of 4.4% and 4.6%. Why so cheap?

Aggressive accounting?

There’s some fretting about the UK’s exit from the European Union and UK defence spending but the bigger concerns for me are the questions raised in a broker note put out by Morgan Stanley (MS) earlier this month.

I’ve previously looked in some detail at signs of aggressive accounting at other outsourcers (which have recently come home to roost), and MS raises similar concerns about Babcock. These include the trend in unbilled receivables, where certain balances, such as accrued income, have been growing well ahead of revenue, “suggesting that some form of credit extension is being used to drive sales.”

In a statement yesterday, Babcock emphasised it takes “a prudent approach to contract accounting,” but the market gave this reassurance only a muted response and I remain concerned about the numbers in the accounts. MS downgraded Babcock from Overweight only as far as Equal Weight in its note but, personally, I’m inclined to err further on the side of caution and view the stock as a ‘sell’.


Carpetright (LSE: CPR) is a stock I’ve been bearish on for a good while and first-half results from the company today have done nothing to change my view. It reported underlying profit before tax of £2.1m for the 26 weeks ended 28 October, which was about £1.4m below market expectations. Meanwhile, the balance sheet moved to net debt of £22.8m at the period end from net cash of £0.4m at the same time last year.

Furthermore, management said that after a “challenging” first half “we are taking a more cautious view of the second half and now expect underlying profit before tax for the full year will be towards the bottom end of the current range of market expectations.”

A lot further to fall?

Admirably, the company states explicitly what those expectations were: namely, “consensus … £15.2m, with a range from £13.8m to £16.5m.” I calculate we’ll see EPS of sub-15p on the new guidance, which, with the shares down 5.6% on the day at 175p, gives a P/E of no lower than 11.7.

Amidst the unfolding Brexit story, the company acknowledges “declining consumer confidence and an increasingly competitive landscape.” With consumer debt at historically unprecedented levels and the cost of living squeeze intensifying after figures today revealed inflation hit a near six-year high of 3.1% in November, I believe Carpetright’s earnings are likely to come under still more pressure in the coming months and that its shares could have a lot further to fall. On this basis, I rate the stock a ‘sell’.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

G A Chester has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

5 FTSE 100 shares to consider buying for passive income right now

The FTSE 100 is having its best start to the year for ages, and that's pushing the top dividend yields…

Read more »

Investing Articles

One overlooked cheap share to tap into the year’s hottest theme?

This Fool describes the key things to think about when investing in copper stocks and analyses one cheap share to…

Read more »

Investing Articles

A cheap FTSE 100 stock that’s ready for a dividend hike in 2024

This banking giant is one of the FTSE 100's greatest dividend stocks. And at current prices, our writer Royston Wild…

Read more »

Growth Shares

Is the BP share price set to soar after Michael Burry invests in the firm?

Jon Smith takes note of a recent purchase from the famous investor behind The Big Short and explains his view…

Read more »

Person holding magnifying glass over important document, reading the small print
Investing Articles

I’d focus on Kingfisher now after the Q1 report leaves the share price unmoved

With the share price near 262p, is the FTSE 100’s Kingfisher a decent investment now for dividends and business recovery?

Read more »

Smart young brown businesswoman working from home on a laptop
Investing Articles

£500 buys me 493 shares in this 7.4% yielding dividend stock!

The renewable energy sector remains out of favour. As a result, there are some high-yielders around, including this dividend stock.

Read more »

Road trip. Father and son travelling together by car
Investing Articles

If I’d put £10k into Tesla stock 2 years ago, here’s what I’d have now

Tesla stock has fallen in the past few years. But the valuation looks temptingly low now, as we approach a…

Read more »

Google office headquarters
Investing Articles

Up 41.5% in a year, here’s why Alphabet is one of my top stocks to buy

Our author thinks Alphabet is one of the best stocks to buy. He says its undervalued, highly profitable and has…

Read more »