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QUALIPORT
Switching Between Quality Shares

By Maynard Paton (TMFMayn)
August 31, 2004

Newspaper publisher Johnston Press (LSE: JPR) has served the Qualiport well. The portfolio has made three purchases (here, here and here) since September 2001 and the holding is now worth double the original cost. The success has caused the shares to become an increasingly large part of the portfolio:

Share                                                       Percentage
of portfolio
Associated British Ports (LSE: ABP) 12
Emap (LSE: EMA) 11
Halma (LSE: HLMA) 12
Johnston Press (LSE: JPR) 35
London Stock Exchange (LSE: LSE) 25
Cash 5

(Further details are shown at the end of this article.)

The current make-up of the portfolio warrants some discussion on switching and portfolio weightings.

Switching

Without the benefit of new money entering the portfolio (to simplify performance calculations), the Qualiport generally has to sell to buy. But the obvious problem is that one watch list share rarely provides much more quality and value than an existing holding at the same time.

Account for additional dealing costs and the fact that this portfolio can only announce its trading intentions on a Tuesday (and has to act within the following five trading days, thus running the risk of adverse price movements), the scope for successful Qualiport switching is limited.

Nevertheless, the Qualiport has carried out numerous share switches in the past -- with varying results. Importantly, the swaps were almost always based on issues of quality rather than value, the latest exchange -- June's replacement of Carpetright (LSE: CPR) with Associated British Ports -- being a good example.

However, deciding whether to switch from one quality firm to another can prove to be a dilemma. For example, at the time of the Carpetright/ABP switch, the factors considered for also exchanging some Johnston Press for ABP included:

1. Johnston Press shares were 30% above their then buy price.
2. More ABP shares could be purchased two months later, following a large special dividend from another holding.
3. Other watch list shares were very near buy-price territory too, e.g. Vodafone (LSE: VOD).

After some thought, the second and third points over-rode the first. Though not a buy at the time, Johnston Press shares were certainly not overvalued when ABP was bought.

In addition, there was the genuine possibility of swapping part of the Johnston Press holding for a sixth portfolio member, which would have given the focused Qualiport slightly more balance.

And if ABP's shares fell further after purchase (as often happens with Qualiport buys!), the money from the LSE's special dividend (paid in August) could have been used to average down instead.

The upshot from all of this is that there are no set rules to switching within and weighting a quality portfolio. Companies change, events happen, share prices move and it's largely down to gut-feel and experience as to how much money goes into how many holdings and at what time. For what it's worth, the current Qualiport plan is to:

* Top up one of the three smaller portfolio holdings with the current cash pile, and/or;
* Introduce a new portfolio company by selling part of the Johnson Press holding.

… as and when a suitable opportunity arrives.

But you never know. If circumstances dictate, the portfolio could buy even more Johnston Press shares.

Johnston Press results

At present though, Johnston Press shares are fairly valued. The company issued its half-year results last week and a summary is shown below:

Six months to June 30th 2004 2003
Turnover (£000) 261,228 248,456
Operating profit (£000) 92,044 84,069
Exceptional item (£000) (1,058) (882)
Net interest (£000) (13,789) (16,719)
Pre-tax profit (£000) 77,339 66,699
Earnings per share* (p) 19.45 16.82
Dividend per share (p) 2.4 2.0

(*underlying)

The performance continued to support the buy and hold attractions of regional newspaper publishing.

Turnover advanced 6% to £261m, with employment and property advertising doing particularly well. Operating profits increased 9% to £91m, though this calculation was struck after what have now become regular exceptional items relating to restructuring. Still, post-exceptional operating margins were raised to 35% during the period, emphasising Johnston's wide 'moat'.

The debt situation also improved. Net borrowings during the first six months of the year were reduced from £423m to £378m, which allowed net interest cover to rise from 5.0 times to 6.6 times. The performance allowed the dividend to be lifted an impressive 20% to 2.4p per share as well. With the payout covered over five times by earnings in 2003, there appears to be scope for further substantial hikes.

During the twelve months to June 2004, a post-exceptional operating profit of £159m was produced. Assuming capital expenditure runs 25% higher than the depreciation charge, interest of £26m is paid on net borrowings of £378 and tax is paid at the standard 30%, the historical free cash flow comes to 33.9p per share. Demanding a 7.5% free cash flow yield therefore requires a 452p entry price.

This calculation could be somewhat conservative. For instance, if turnover is flat for the year ahead, but Johnston managed to maintain its current operating margin and report no exceptional items, a buy price of 482p could be argued. The shares currently trade at 520.5p.

Maynard owns shares in Associated British Ports, Halma, Johnston Press and London Stock Exchange.

Qualiport value

Holding                            Number
of shares
Closing price
27/08/04
(p)
 Value
(£)
Associated British Ports 681 427.75 2,912.98
Emap 372 740 2,752.80
Halma 1,920 146.25 2,808.00
Johnston Press 1,608 520.5 8,369.64
London Stock Exchange 1,669 358 5,975.02
Cash 1,270.94
Total     24,089.38