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QUALIPORT
Five Years On, Emap Still Appeals

By Maynard Paton (TMFMayn)
May 29, 2003

Emap (LSE: EMA) is the Qualiport's longest held share. Bought originally in April 1998 at a racy 1,150p, the subsequent five years have been a roller coaster for the media group. The TMT bubble in 2000 (share price high: 1,773p) and the unravelling of the £900m Petersen purchase in 2001 (share price low: 480p) form a volatile story (the Qualiport archive tells the full tale).

Still, Emap remains an appealing business for buy and hold investors. Published yesterday, final results for the year to March 2003 re-emphasised the company's inherent attractions. To provide some background, you may wish to read this review of the business and this assessment of the group's interim results.

Five-year record

Emap's five-year financial record is shown in the table below:

(to 31st March)            1999     2000     2001     2002     2003

Turnover (£m)               880    1,103    1,153    1,029      967
Operating Profit* (£m)      171      223      234      198      191
Exceptional Items (£m)       13       68     (626)     (16)      13 
Pre-tax Profit (£m)         174      252     (429)     116      188

Earnings per share* (p)    48.7     53.7     56.8     45.6     49.0
Dividend per share (p)     16.6     18.3     19.5     19.5     21.6

(*adjusted for goodwill, exceptional items, and write downs)

Ignoring discontinued operations (notably Petersen, sold in 2001), turnover increased 3% to £948m while operating profits improved 14% to £191m. The divisional breakdown went like this:

Division                            Sales            Operating Profit
                                 2003    2002         2003      2002
                                 (£m)    (£m)         (£m)      (£m)

Consumer Magazines -- UK          340     327           61       63
Consumer Magazines -- France      272     262           47       43
Consumer Magazines -- Other        45      38           (1)     (10)
Business to Business              180     192           50       51 
Radio                              89      90           25       33
TV                                 22      10            6        3
Digital                            19      19            3      (16)
Total                             967     938          191      167

In terms of UK magazines, good performances from heat, MaxPower and New Woman improved domestic sales, though launch costs for Closer and the poor progress of certain music titles held back profits. French magazines generally did well, as did the US version of FHM.

UK 'Business to business' publications endured a 'tough trading environment' and witnessed underlying recruitment advertising down 2%. Meanwhile, increased launch costs and 'revenue pressures across higher margin operations' affected Emap's domestic radio subsidiary.

Notably, the fledgling television and Internet operations put in sound performances. It's worth recognising that the group profit improvement stemmed largely from the Emap Digital turnaround.

High quality

Overall, Emap retains many high quality characteristics:

* Margins: Being more susceptible to new entrants, readership fads and so on, consumer magazines admittedly offer one of the weaker 'franchises' within the media sector. Yet the average UK and French Emap publication produces a 17-18% margin, which does highlight a certain amount of competitive strength. Emap's specialist commercial titles tend to have more of a moat around them; domestic trade magazines and exhibitions combine to generate margins of 27%.

In the UK, Emap is the number two magazine publisher (with 17% of market sales), behind IPC (23%). In France, Emap is the number three (11% of market sales), following Hachette (16%) and Prisma (12%).

* Subscriptions: One attraction to magazine publishing is the annual subscription. Paid upfront, subscriptions provide a certain amount of operational and cash flow predictability.

At the end of March 2002 for instance, Emap benefited from £120m of 'accruals and deferred income' (i.e. monies paid but not yet 'earned'). It's worth noting too that 40% of group revenues are traditionally generated by circulation (i.e. cover price) income, which is generally less volatile than advertising income.

* Radio: Emap is one of the UK's leading commercial radio broadcasters. This industry has many attractions to the long-term investor, not least the requirement to own a licence and the desire by regulators to encourage diversity. Read more.

Cash flow

The 2003 annual results showed Emap's earnings are genuinely backed up by cash:

(to 31st March)             1999     2000     2001     2002     2003

Operating Profit (£m)        171      223      234      198      191

Working capital change (£m)  (13)      (9)       1       (8)      16

Depreciation (£m)             13       14       15       14       12
Capital Expenditure (£m)     (12)     (12)     (19)     (10)     (16)

The past five years have seen just 1% of operating profit diverted into working capital. And since 1999, expenditure on tangible assets has exceeded the depreciation charge by only 2%. And get this: in 1993, Emap produced an operating profit of £41m on tangible assets of £31m; ten years on, tangible assets are £32m, but operating profits are £191m. This business relies firmly on difficult-to-replicate intangible assets.

Down from £277m to £211m, it was nice to see net debt reduced during the year. Interest payments were covered a very comfortable 11 times and a generally strong cash flow performance allowed the full-year dividend to be raised 11% to 21.6p per share.

Something absent from the preliminary statement though was a FRS17 pension update -- bad form, really. That said, the 2002 deficit was only £13m, so 2003 earnings of £125m should be able to cope with any further shortfall.

Valuation and summary

With many media companies stumbling at present, shareholders should be pleased with Emap's resilient performance. At 3% though, underlying sales and profit growth was pedestrian. Judging by the company's outlook, investors can expect a similar performance in the current year.

As with all media firms, the biggest investor worry concerns daft corporate activity. Prompted no doubt by the forthcoming relaxation of media ownership rules, Emap's results presentation referred to 'creating value from radio consolidation' in the year ahead. Hopefully new chief executive Tom Moloney has learnt from others how damaging 'transforming' acquisitions can be.

Applying a 30% tax charge, Emap generated 46.0p of free cash in the year to March 2003. Demanding a 7.5% historic free cash flow yield would require a share price of 613p, some 26% below today's 829p.

More: Emap discussion board