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QUALIPORT
Ratios Reveal Rubbish Retailers

By Maynard Paton (TMFMayn)
January 20, 2003

Because of their visible high street presence, retailers are always popular among private investors. However, due to the industry's competitive nature, they frequently cause much shareholder heartache. Although a retailer's profits may be heading in the right direction, investors also must determine whether certain operational ratios remain up to scratch.

Like-for-like

Just about every retailer reports like-for-like (LFL) sales growth within its results. The measure is important for shareholders, as it highlights the underlying improvement in year-on-year sales (i.e. it ignores the affects of closed, refurbished and new shops). Effectively, sustained LFL growth is a sign of continuing customer popularity. Combined with a high share price valuation, deteriorating LFL sales is a good indicator of future investment trouble (Matalan (LSE: MTN is a good example).

Apart from the ubiquitous LFL figure, other points to monitor are:

* Sales per store;
* Sales per square foot of retail space;
* Rent per square foot of retail space;
* Rent as a proportion of sales, and;
* Staff per store.

These ratios and their trends can give an insight into whether operating problems lie ahead. Ideally, you'd not want to see:

* Sales per store and square foot decreasing;
* Rent per square foot and as a proportion of sales rapidly increasing, and;
* Staff per store moving significantly either way (a notable decline may indicate a deteriorating service, a notable rise may indicate unnecessary costs).

Here's how Qualiport member Carpetright (LSE: CPR) stacks up on those measures.

Sales

The table below highlights Carpetright's sales per store and sales per square foot of retail space:

Year   Sales      Stores     Retail         Sales/     Sales per
to     (£000)               space          store       sq. foot
April                     (sq ft 000)       (£)          (£)

1992    53,445      89         840        668,063       69.86
1993    78,634     116       1,054        767,161       83.03
1994   110,380     145       1,315        845,824       93.19
1995   141,317     186       1,681        853,879       94.34
1996   185,332     246       2,016        858,019      100.26
1997   233,680     292       2,604        869,368      101.24
1998   269,340     307       2,940        899,299       97.16
1999   277,722     333       3,209        867,881       90.33
2000   304,818     321       3,092        932,165       96.75
2001   322,917     325       3,140        999,743      103.63
2002   361,500     347       3,347      1,075,893      111.45

The significance of these ratios is shown in the 1997 figures. In that year, group turnover jumped 26%, pre-tax profits improved 28% and like-for-like sales increased by 10% -- all good stuff. However, sales per average square foot of retail space during the year improved by less than 1% (to £101.24).

The stores that opened in 1997 appeared to have under-performed badly. Was trouble brewing? Yes it was. In 1998, LFL sales growth was just 2%. In 1998, it was negative 4%.

Rent

Analysing the rent bill is another important task for shareholders. While a retailer may be able to trim costs elsewhere, rents are typically agreed on a multi-year basis and subject to upward-only reviews. As such, the higher the rent compared to turnover, the greater the profit trouble should the top line stumble.

Rent payments are almost always revealed in an accounting note. The example below belongs to Carpetright's 2002 annual report:

3. Profit on ordinary activities before taxation
Profit on ordinary activities before taxation is stated after charging:

                                            2002     2001
                                           £'000    £'000
...
Amounts payable under operating leases    
     Rents                                40,656   37,066
...

The next table shows Carpetright's rent as a percentage of sales and per square foot of retail space:

Year    Sales      Rent       Retail         Rent/       Rent per
to      (£000)    (£000)      space          Sales       sq. foot
April                       (sq ft 000)       (%)          (£)

1992    53,445     6,167         840         11.54        8.06
1993    78,634     7,834       1,054          9.96        8.27
1994   110,380     9,833       1,315          8.91        8.30
1995   141,317    12,404       1,681          8.78        8.28
1996   185,332    16,689       2,016          9.00        9.03
1997   233,680    21,387       2,604          9.15        9.26
1998   269,340    28,799       2,940         10.69       10.39
1999   277,722    32,514       3,209         11.71       10.58
2000   304,818    35,345       3,092         11.60       11.22
2001   322,917    37,066       3,140         11.48       11.90
2002   361,500    40,656       3,347         11.25       12.53

Although rent per square foot has trended higher over time, Carpetright has managed to contain the overall bill as a proportion of turnover. On balance, Carpetright's rent profile is not overly concerning.

Staff

The final table highlights the average store size and the number of staff employed per store:

Year     Staff    Stores    Retail         Store/     Staff per
to                          space          size         store  
April                     (sq ft 000)     (sq ft)      

1992      539       89         840         9,563         6.74
1993      736      116       1,054         9,239         7.18
1994      935      145       1,315         9,077         7.16
1995    1,155      186       1,681         9,051         6.98
1996    1,590      246       2,016         8,558         7.36
1997    2,058      292       2,604         8,587         7.65
1998    2,255      307       2,940         9,255         7.53
1999    2,337      333       3,209         9,608         7.30
2000    2,683      321       3,092         9,635         8.20
2001    2,893      325       3,140         9,647         8.96
2002    3,278      347       3,347         9,653         9.76

Over the past decade, the size of a typical Carpetright store has remained around 9,500 square feet. However, even though the stores have not got any bigger, the number of staff manning each outlet has gradually increased. So, not only have additional shops aided Carpetright's long-term growth story, extra manpower within them appears to have been a component, too. On the flip side though, staff wages as a proportion of turnover has inevitably increased over the years.

Summary

Any problems for Carpetright then? Not really. Even with higher rent and staff numbers per store, Carpetright still registered its best ever operating margin in 2002 -- 14.4%. While the costs associated with extra outlets and salesmen have bit slightly into profits, they've been more than offset by the resultant economies of scale and dramatic improvements in the gross margin.

More: Does Your Company Have A Staff Problem?

The author owns shares in Carpetright.