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QUALIPORT
Cadbury Schweppes: Sweet Enough For The Qualiport?

By Maynard Paton (TMFMayn)
April 8, 2002

On the surface, Cadbury Schweppes (LSE: CBRY) is an appealing company for long-term investors. The group owns plenty of popular branded products, the demand for which is reasonably steady and predictable. But like most consumer goods companies, acquisitions are a prevalent feature. At the moment, it's unclear as to whether shareholders have benefited from the corporate activity.

The business

Cadbury Schweppes manufacturers and distributes a wide range of branded confectionery and beverages. The stock market history of Cadbury Schweppes can be traced back to 1897, when tonic water specialists Schweppes first floated on the London exchange. The same year saw Richard Cadbury develop his first milk chocolate, and in the UK at least, his products have remained firm favourites ever since. For instance, Cadbury's Dairy Milk was launched in 1905, Cadbury's Flake was developed in 1920 and the Cadbury's Creme Egg was introduced in 1923.

After Schweppes and Cadbury merged in 1969, acquisitions helped bolster the group's fortunes. Notable purchases were UK confectioners Trebor and Bassett in 1989 and US drink group Dr Pepper/Seven Up in 1995. The latter acquisition helped catapult Cadbury Schweppes into the upper echelons of the global soft drinks market, with subsequent purchases reaffirming the group's position as the industry number three. With a myriad of different chocolates and sweets sold throughout the world too, Cadbury Schweppes is also the number four in the worldwide confectionery market.

Recent acquisitions have concentrated on the drinks side of the business. Alongside a string of minor purchases, acquisitions have included Pernod Ricard's soft drinks brands and businesses in Continental Europe, North America and Australia, the ReaLemon and ReaLime brands, Slush Puppie, Snapple and Hawaiian Punch. Purchases have totalled some £2.6b over the past five years. However, the spending spree has been offset by disposals, the most significant of which being the £623m sale of bottler Coca-Cola & Schweppes Beverages in 1997 and the £434m sale of various drink brands in 1998.

The financials

Here's the five-year record of Cadbury Schweppes:

To December 31st           1997    1998    1999    2000     2001

Turnover (£m)             4,220   4,106   4,301   4,575    5,519
Operating Profit* (£m)      608     628     637     726      877
Exceptional Items (£m)      412     (30)    350      27       31
Pre-tax Profit (£m)         987     579     961     769      859

Earnings per share* (p)    18.6    19.7    19.5    24.1     27.8
Dividend per share (p)      9.0     9.5    10.0    10.5     11.0

(* after major restructuring costs but before goodwill amortisation)

The recent financial performance of Cadbury Schweppes is complicated by the corporate activity. Indeed, a charge for "major restructuring" has been seen every year since 1992, the costs of which have totalled some £362m over that time. The exceptional items shown in the table above relate mainly to the gains from the aforementioned disposals.

The progress of the group's operating margin has been notable. From just 8.9% in 1987, the figure rose to 11.2% in 1991, 12.6% in 1995 and currently stands at 15.9%. It appears the acquisitions have been of the more attractive higher margin variety, and/or substantial synergies have been created.

It's interesting to note how the operating margins at Cadbury Schweppes break down.

To December 31st 2001            Sales     Operating      Operating
                                              Profit        Profit
                                  (£m)        (£m)          (%)

North America Beverages          2,168         541          25.0 
Europe Beverages                   571          91          15.9
Europe Confectionery             1,532         212          13.8
Americas Confectionery             312          44          14.1
Asia Pacific                       639         109          17.1
Africa, India and Middle East      288          33          11.5

Even though Dr Pepper and 7UP are not the most popular of soft drinks in North America, they still help to produce a 25% operating margin. In fact, that performance is better than the equivalent 19.7% figure at Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). Branded confectionery generates a reasonable 14% margin.

Cash flow and return on equity

Cadbury Schweppes excels on the cash flow front:

To December 31st             1997    1998    1999    2000     2001

Operating Profit (£m)         608     628     637     726      877

Working capital change (£m)   (46)    (80)      6      37       88

Depreciation                  145     205     150     153      162
Net capital expenditure (£m) (204)   (143)   (108)   (101)    (233)

Over the past five years, the company's cash flows have not been troubled by working capital requirements. Furthermore, net expenditure on fixed assets since 1997 has effectively mirrored the cumulative depreciation charge.

It's also worth highlighting how the group has become less reliant on fixed assets over time.

To December 31st              1997    1998    1999     2000     2001

Operating Profit (£m)          608     628     637      726      877
Tangible fixed assets (£m) 1,221 1,126 1,091 1,106 1,209 Intangible fixed assets (£m) 1,575 1,607 1,725 3,163 3,721

Ten years ago, fixed assets of £1,054m helped Cadbury Schweppes generate operating profits of £371m. Over the following decade, operating profits have more than doubled while fixed assets have increased by just 20%. Certainly the fortunes of Cadbury Schweppes are based on more difficult-to-replicate intangible assets. But the recent increase in intangible assets (i.e. the increase in purchased goodwill) has lead to relatively uninspiring reinvestment returns.

Between 1996 and 2001, shareholders' funds at Cadbury Schweppes jumped from £3,012m to £4,704m. Over the same time, earnings (adjusted for exceptional items) improved from £340m to £558m. The resulting incremental return on equity comes to 12.9%.

Furthermore, the return on the average equity employed during 2001 was 12.2%. Although there's the possibility of benefits having yet to be fully realised from recent acquisitions, past return on equity figures have bounced around in the 10-15% range. Aided by £2b of borrowings too, there's nothing really convincing to suggest Cadbury Schweppes has an outstanding record of reinvesting its profits.

Summary

Cadbury Schweppes has many attractive qualities. It's a visible, simple and predictable business underpinned by great cash flows. Over the years, acquisitions have led to an improvement in margins and a reduction in the relative use of fixed assets. However, there's no concrete evidence to suggest all the corporate activity has led -- or will ever lead -- to above-average returns on shareholders' equity. All in all, especially given the complex financial history, it's probably worth informally monitoring Cadbury Schweppes for the time being, and revisiting the company at some later date,

More: Cadbury Schweppes discussion board