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No Base Rate Change

David Stevenson

By

David Stevenson

From the Fool blog

Christmas comes early for Centrica investors

Published in Your Money on 10 January 2008

No change today from the Bank of England's rate setters...

At 12.00 midday today, City dealers were standing by their screens, ready for one of the most eagerly awaited Bank of England base rate decisions for years.

The response from the Monetary Policy Committee:

No change to the benchmark rate...and no statement either

Although most economists whose views had been surveyed were correct in forecasting inactivity, this was always going to be a knife-edge decision.

On one side, there's the credit crunch

In all its forms...the weakening housing market, squeezed consumer spending, slowing manufacturing growth, tightening lending criteria, the impact on Britain's vast debt mountain...

And sterling had been easing, particularly against the Euro, in anticipation of a cut which would benefit the UK's exporters who are starting to see slowing orders and demand. These factors call for lower rates.  

On the other, there's inflation

Which is already a worry with the Bank's inflation measure, the CPI (consumer price index) currently above target at 2.1%.

Both input and output prices are climbing in the service sector. With oil flirting with $100/barrel, and food costs rising round the world, don't expect much improvement here.

And last week, it emerged that the latest pay hikes agreed in Britain were at their highest levels for 13 years. All these factors call for increased rates.

So maybe it was this last bit of unwelcome news that swayed the rate setters into sitting on their hands this time.

But despite the risks, as the economy worsens, lower borrowing costs could be right back on the menu next month.

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