Couldn't agree more Cliff.
The "risk off" trade - aka "return of, rather than return on capital" - is a trading concept, conveniently appealing to long-termist attitudes for short-term purposes.The institutions are quite happy to be in a regulatory armlock. Course they are, it's supported and profitable - for now. As - not if - inflation continues to rise and the UK loses its 'least ugly girl at the eurodance' status, the security narrative will fall apart. Then where are the returns going to come from?
Gilts have been distorted from a 'til I die' secure holding into the most dangerous bubble currently around and are now the stuff of sheer speculation.
Of course, just as markets can stay irrational longer than most people can stay solvent, bubbles tend to last far longer than rationality can explain.
Rather than attempting to short bills, I'd just exercise the luxury of avoiding them. If you absolutely must get involved, at least make it linkers.
