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Foreign Property Is A Flight From Reality

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By

Harvey Jones

From the Fool blog

How To Bag A Bargain This Christmas

Published in Property & Home on 3 September 2008

Harvey Jones thinks we should steer clear of overseas property investment.

In recent weeks I have been furiously deleting email after email from property companies hyping the latest thrilling investment opportunity.

As you might expect, none of these opportunities are to be found in the blighted UK property market but increasingly further afield, in fact, as far as possible from these shores.

The press releases all follow a similar pattern. Property prices may be collapsing in drizzly Britain and beyond, but there are still plenty of overseas markets where canny investors can make merry.

Only the name of the country changes. Brazil, Cape Verdi, Croatia, Dubai, Egypt, Morocco, Northern Cyprus, Panama and Turkey are just some of the exotic names tickling my Inbox.

Foreign affairs.

Frankly, I'm amazed they think people still have the heart for this kind of stuff.

You would have thought that given the global property meltdown, the last thing most people would want to do is sink more of their precious money into bricks and mortar.

Have you felt it, this diminishing passion for property? Do you spend less time drooling over house buying websites, watching TV property makeover shows or dreaming of a second home in the sun?

I'm not completely cured, I have to admit. I still click on the residential sales section of local estate agency websites, mostly to see how much prices have fallen (answer: not as much as you might think).

And although I did browse a Spanish property website the other day, I could tell my heart wasn't in it.

So when somebody pops into my Inbox raving about the latest investment opportunity, I feel they've missed the point of everything that has happened in the past 12 months.

Our love affair with property is going through a sticky patch. I'm sure we'll kiss and make up, eventually, but the time isn't right yet.

Pound for pound.

In any case, who has the money to invest in overseas property, given the crumbling value of sterling?

Some cheeky property companies even use the weakness of the pound as a selling point. One property developer is advising British foreign property investors to look outside the Eurozone, to places where the pound will go further. Places like Egypt.

Given the weakness of sterling, I'm hardly confident the British pound can hold its own against the Egyptian pound.

I'm also not convinced that a two-bedroom apartment in in Egypt's "Red Sea Riviera" is such a great deal anyway.

I was in the Red Sea several years ago, and the Egyptians were pouring concrete onto their coastline at an even more reckless rate than the Spanish, and look how that ended.

Flight from reality.

And all these countries seem so far away. How often will you fly to your second home in the Maghreb or central America? No, really?

These developments may claim to be within five hours flying time of London, and served by plentiful cheap airlines, but how long is that going to last? If your cut-price carrier does a Zoom, you might find the only way to reach your prime residential gated development is on a leaky night boat from Cairo with a connecting mule.

And even if the airline does survive, five hours flying plus check-in and connections is an awful trek to visit your second "home", unless, of course, you are retired and plan to spend several months soaking up the sun every year.

But these companies are not just selling homes, they are selling "investment opportunities", because you can also make money by renting out your property to holidaymakers.

Presumably, you will do that via a local property management company, which, hopefully, will arrange and manage all the bookings for you. This involves both effort and risk, and personally, I'd rather put the money into a fixed-rate bond paying upwards of 7%.

End of the affair.

All these press releases work on the assumption that rising property prices are healthy for investors, because they will make money when they rise even further.

But the reverse is most likely to be true. The chances are you are buying at the top of the market, one step ahead of the liquidity squeeze. Unless you somehow think Egypt, Morocco and Panama will prove immune to the global contagion…

Right now, I would rather buy where prices are falling, although I'd wait a couple of years, until they have fallen even more.

Happily, I can't see many people being seduced by this foreign property proposition: we've all learned a painful lesson.

And perhaps that is why these developers are anxiously chasing investors halfway around the world, because they're needy and desperate, and as every lover knows, that is never an attractive combination.

More: Another Nail In The Housing Coffin!

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Comments

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brilaine22 04 Sep 2008, 7:53am

Hi i would like peoples thoughts on the property market in southern Cyprus, (they do seem to think they are immune to what is going on in the rest of the world) are they right?

TimeValue 04 Sep 2008, 8:02am

Travel restrictions are on their way too. Cheap oil is a thing of the past and cheap air travel is living on borrowed time. What price a holiday home you can't get to?
On the over hand, the UK is bankrupt and inflation is going to wipe out your savings and pensions so if you can emigrate while you have the chance and invest your cash in a safe country, get on with it. BUT, when you've worked out where to go, let me know because I can't make up my mind!

ufo22jim 04 Sep 2008, 8:23am

Hi Brilaine22,
As the article says, property prices in most of the world are starting to fall. I went to a property place a few years ago and Cyprus (both North and South) was being pushed. The Northern people were saying invest there and the Southern people were saying their part was better. I remember there being some doubt about whether some land was owned by Greece or Turkey. The deeds to the land wasn't documented by the land registry as in the UK, so this put me off buying there. Property goes up if demand exceeds supply - it falls once supply exceeds demand. Are people still flocking to buy properties in Cyprus? Where are the typical buyers from? Can people still easily borrow money to invest there? If yes, then Cyprus could continue to do well - if not, prices will start to fall.
Jim

JBStar 04 Sep 2008, 8:27am

I couldn't agree more. I was toying with the idea of a property in Turkey or Morocco until my bank manager slapped me around a bit for even considering investing in 'soft' currencies where the only attachment to Euros or Dollars is through the fanciful imagination of their finance ministers ...

And the rest is true also - when Britain and Germany catch a cold, the Med Zone countries get pneumonia ... the fallout is already affecting prices in Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey where over-supply has already diminished the market, Spain is a disaster thanks to earlier recession in Germany and now the problems in UK.

Wait. Or rent. In Turkey most mortgaged purchasers would bite you hand off for a decent one-year rental.

SAPWanderer 04 Sep 2008, 8:35am

Hi Everyone

I purchased 5 properties in Bulgaria in 2005 what were less populated resorts. Now they are still less populated resorts but fille with newly constructed empty apartments all owned by people from the British Isles wo are all saying they wish the had never purchased in Bulgaria.

As for me ... does anyone want to buy a Bulagrin property? l have a few to sell.

dennigmt 04 Sep 2008, 8:38am

Hello brilaine22 If you want to know the info on Southern Cyprus, I would recomend the following site http://www.cyprus-property-buyers.com/ it's very informative and not a sales pitch.

I live in Cyprus and I continue to keep my sister informed of events for when she should buy to retire. Please see (below) an extract from a recent leeter that I sent to her.

Cyprus has just woken up to the fact that they have a glut of houses that they will have to reduce the prices on.
Anyone within the industry with a brain knew that was going to happen as soon as the UK £ slumped against the Euro last December, if 8 out of 10 houses are sold to British people, then the Cyprus housing market along with the British £ have to take effect.

What amazes me is that professional people who make their living from buying and selling property behave like they couldn’t see it coming?

Did they think that British people can take a reduction of 20% and more to come, on the sale of their UK houses knowing full well that a housing crash had to come sooner or later, along with a pension that if converted from the British £ means that when they convert a UK £ to a Euro their UK £ is also worth 20% less try that on a fixed pension and it’s a serious sum of money.
I know that house prices in Cyprus must come down.
Just think about this. If you are paid £300 per week as a Pension, you send to Cyprus in December 2008 £300 per week at an exchange rate of €1.44 to £1.00 = €432.
And now it is €1.24 to £1.00 = €372, that is €60 a week less for you to live on! That is a 16% increase in the cost of living for anyone converting British pounds to euros.

The only offset that the British have to consider is how much has the cost of living gone up by remaining in rip off Britain , Council tax, Fuel, Heating, etc

ufo22jim 04 Sep 2008, 8:49am

TimeValue,
I've been looking at South Africa myself (but unfortunately this isn't the safest country). I'm from the UK, but married a South African woman and have holidayed there for 4 years. I noticed you get a lot of house for your money. My inlaws live in a 5 bed detached house on half an acre of land. They also have a holiday cottage on the coast on 4 acres and even their holiday house is twice the size of my UK rabbit hutch! I bought a 2.5 acre plot of land near Cape Town about 2 years ago and this has gone up around 50% in value. I'm planning to sell up in the UK and build a couple of houses out there. I'll stay out there if things go well, but if not, I'll sell up again and maybe consider New Zealand. New Zealand would have been my first choice of destination if I hadn't married a South African. They work on a points system and we had enough points to move their (my wife's job was more in demand than my one!) The wages are a bit lower there, but the houses are much lower - I had a work colleague who sold up and moved out there in 2002 and he is loving the lifestyle.

The major problem with South Africa is most professional people are emigrating if they can - there are coming to the UK, the USA and Australia/New Zealand. Most are worried about the future leader of the ANC, Jacob Zuma, who could mess up the country. The major positive is the 2010 world cup, which will expose South Africa to a global audience.
Jim

ascentium 04 Sep 2008, 8:54am

I agree with most of what you write... indeed, when it comes to the the stuff you've written about non-UK property, I think you're spot on. The only query I'd have is whether you REALLY think that the UK pound is going to decline more than the Egyptian :-)

However, on UK property, I'm seeing plenty of professional landlords view the UK crash as "about time too"... with a lot more buying opportunities coming up.

Those who are suffering are the self-styled "Property Investor" crowd, who got into the UK market in the last few years, and poured scorn on us old-fashioned landlords for not buying like crazy, and concentrating on the business of RUNNING a property portfolio, looking after customers (tenants) and keeping up with landlord/tenant rather than "INVESTING" :-)

videoman100 04 Sep 2008, 9:14am

Having owned a property for the last four and a half years in Tenerife and actually living there for the last two years the property market is much hyped by developers and the media. In my experience prices have not risen at all and we have been very lucky to sell ours a few months ago. The only way we have made any money on the property is all down to the weak pound against the euro (1.48 when we purchased, 1.24 when we sold) which has made a small profit on our sale. Everyone is desperate to sell and there are literally thousands on the market even on a small island like Tenerife. Would I buy again, no, I would rent as we are going back for six months shortly but will be renting in future.
Keep your money in the bank.

montenegro1 04 Sep 2008, 9:21am

Hi all any one thinking of Montenegro give a miss

Coutances 04 Sep 2008, 9:25am

I have a second home in Northern France - bought as a renovation job, now a modernised 300 year old farm hse with 2 acres. The drop in the £ against the euro has made this a sound investment and prices of houses and demand according to my local Notaire are still going up. Pres Sarkosy has intro mortgage tax relief. I would agree with the comments with far off locations with unreliable political termoil such as Turkey etc - but France (and by ferry not air) is a dream.

TB

itsirfankhan 04 Sep 2008, 9:30am

Dear Mr Harvey Jones.
I recently read your article on Foreign Property Is A Flight From Reality.

I think you and many journalists are always painting a gloomy picture, its always doom and gloom, scarmungry. People who write these sort of articles do so because they have not had the forsight in investing at the right time and the right place, not doing their research properly.

I have invested abroad, I did my research thorougly and now I am reaping the benefits.

I have bought a property in the so called hotspots of your article, mainly in Dubai. that property has actually doubled in price in two years. so where is the doom and gloom in that.

My advise is, do your research properly and you will gain substaintially

jamesinone 04 Sep 2008, 9:45am

Ignorance is dangerous. Especially when a journalist without knowledge of economics tells you that property prices around the world will follow the US and UK contagion. The evidence, speaks for itself. And had this journalist researched the dynamics of world property markets, he/she would never have written such rubbish in the first place.
Property investment done properly, yields great returns. However, it is important to understand the dynamics, demography and economics of any locality in which you buy. And that means detailed research - something most ordinary investors dismiss. As an example, had the thousands of hapless brits undertaken the said research on the beach and ski resorts of Bulgaria six years ago, then they would have known that investment in these areas was not a viable option. The absence of planning regulation; the ease at which developers could obtain permits; the lack of local demand; the complete lack of local industry; and the migration of the local population away from these areas to the urban centers would have spelled out that these markets were totally dependent upon tourism for continued growth. And with the influx of UK developers onto the scene who wanted to cash in on the pitch of cheap property in Bulgaria had all the hall marks of a typical Ponzi scheme. In other words it is known as the Owl sale. Albania is another example: agents cite GDP growth at 6% and the youngest population per capita as a reason to buy now while prices are cheap. But the reality is Albania is so poor, that GDP growth needs to be 25% for the next ten years for locals to afford prices offered to foreign buyers. Concentrate your efforts on economies that are performing well (despite the credit crunch) and focus on urban areas with local demand, then the money you spend upon external research will yield dividends. At the heart of any research, you need to quantify the demand and supply ratio - and how that ratio is formalised. You also need to know the future expansion plans of the locality and of course the demographics: purchasing power parity... affordability ratios... etc. You also need to know what stock is coming to market within 3 years... and the type of stock. Inward investment also plays a crucial role. As does commuting patterns. In fact, the research that I and other professional investors undertake costs upwards of £5000 before we decide to invest. But that research yields results. As an example: I purchased seven properties around Slovakia six years ago. So far my ROI has exceeded 600%. In Kiev, I purchased just after the Orange revolution and have spectacular gains of 2000% on capital employed. I can cite many other examples. But you get the point. Property investment is like any other. Forfeit solid research and you get burned. And while this journalist is happy with 7% before inflation and tax, I will stick to average annual returns well in excess of 100%. If you do not know where to start, or not prepared to spend money on research, then stay away from property investment abroad. It's not for amateurs. Only professionals. But for this journalist to assert that property investment elsewhere in the world is a bad bet, demonstrates his/her complete ignorance. It implies that property markets everywhere else in the world are totally reliant on UK and US investors. He/she may as well have said that restaurants around the world are also reliant on US and UK consumers. Because that is how ridiculous his argument is.

JBStar 04 Sep 2008, 9:47am

I was in Dubai earlier this year and aghast at the building boom, a colleague told me it was 400 times more (not 400%) than five years ago ...

With such a glut of property, there can be no appreciation in secondhand housing stock - there will always be something new and shinier to offer the purchaser than the three-to-ten-year-old property to have to sell.

The only measure of appreciation is a cash sale, itsirfankhan, so have you actually sold one at a profit? Or are you depending on 'values' talked up by estate agents (so many of whom have failed in European countries and now trying Dubai) ?

Lazyjack 04 Sep 2008, 9:52am

Hi

Harvey Jones makes some good points about the property market in general. It seems to me that folks get mixed up between making an investment and owning a property overseas that can be seen and touched by the owner. Living and owning a property in a foreign country where the exchange rate is beyond your control - is a high risk strategy to say the least. You may be converting your pension and savings into a depreciating situation with no hope of retrieving the situation at a later date. The opposite situation may be true - but remember that you enjoy some of the best property law in the world in the UK. Inheritance laws and taxes may be very different overseas - make sure you have a good lawyer!
I have enjoyed the propert market in UK for years by investing indirectly through quality builders on the stock market. No agents, no tenants - no worrying about occupancy. I disposed of all my holdings 2 years ago at the press of a button after following the situation in California when the writing was on the wall. My risk is spread far better than individual holdings in bricks and mortar. Lazyjack

ancientaviatior 04 Sep 2008, 9:56am

When I was a "youngaviator", back in the 70's, I distinctly remember my first ever task. There I was, proud new crew member of an RAF C130, sitting on the pan at Akrotiri. Our cargo for the return flight; 87 bedraggled Brits, who had just lost everything, including their homes, in the split up between North & Southern Cyprus. Lesson learned: If you buy property in anyone’s country but you own, be prepared to loose it. And that does not have to be through conflict, have you read about the Brits in Spain who have lost their property because local government moved the “goalposts” on them. Fast forward a few years (OK, a lot of years) and ancientaviator has forgotten his lesson and owns a smart new property in Florida. Mortgaged, no problem as rental income more that covers that, overpay the mortgage and clear it in 7 years. Fully owned second property in Florida for retirement….sorted. You know what’s coming. Property boom in Florida, supply outstrips demand, rental income drops, longer void periods, cash injections to cover mortgage at BAD exchange rates. Yes, been there & got the T-shirt. Thanks to my acute business acumen (Luck) I managed to extract myself and just about broke even, 4 months before 9/11!! Lesson learned: Unless you’re emigrating, rent someone else’s headache.

carlll 04 Sep 2008, 10:09am

I quite agree with Jamesonline. The British public may have fallen out of love with property. But professional have not. And this article fails to mention countries where prices have grown on the back of sound economic growth and sound fiscal and lending policies. Let us not forget that the property boom in the UK was fueled by easy, and cheap credit. And this in turn encouraged arrogant optimism which prompted UK buyers to buy in areas with little or no hope of a sustainable market. Of course, I agree with the writer of this article that many of the destinations promoted to him have no investment potential. But do not tar the rest of the world with your reality. Russia for example is on course to become an economic powerhouse. With fantastic natural reserves and a highly educated workforce, property price growth is on the back of sound fundamentals. Hong Kong too, is the same story. Property is a serious business. But if you want to get a birds eye view on which countries to focus your attention on then look at http://www.primeassetinvestments.com. They have a country comparison tool that scores the long term prospects of major property markets on demographic and economic fundamentals. It is quite an eye opener. And reliable. For instance, the UK, France, Spain, Portugal etc come near the bottom of the list. Emerging markets naturally come higher. That does not mean that every city or town in emerging markets is a good investment. There will be winners and losers. But it is not difficult to calculate the demand/supply ratio. And fairly simple to determine the demand/supply ration for three years in advance. Property investment abroad should be a 3-5 year hold. Then, review the market for intelligence to decide on whether to hold or sell.
Many Brits have been burned. And we will here many horror stories in the near future. But then again, how many times have us Brits fouled up through arrogance and riding the trend. A trend is like a train: everyone wants to get on when it is going well. But most do not know when to get off. The dot.com bubble was the same. When the market started to come off in 2000, ordinary investors refused to sell, hoping there shares would recover in price. But that did not happen. As a result, many got burned not because the stockmarket went against them, but because they did not get off when the writing was on the wall.

Strebor19 04 Sep 2008, 10:11am

I have never owned a property abroad, but know a few that have. None have given a good report, just tales of hassle and stress, and do not know anyone that has made any serious money out of the venture! I can never understand why anyone would want to tie themselves to one location for there holidays each year. It sort of made sense when you could get cheap flights for £60 or so and you could pop back and forward, but I could see that would not last for ever, and are now up at £300 from what I have heard. As others have said, put your money in the Bank and Rent if you want to winter in the Sun. Buying is just not worth the Risk, Hassle, and expense, unless you are a pop star with money to burn! As an invertment, well when you factor in all the costs involved (and your time) you would easily make more money with your money on deposit and a part time job, less stress, no risk, Money in the bank for better Holidays anywhere you fancy in the world.

Matov66 04 Sep 2008, 10:43am

Being both an owner of a property abroad and in the property buisness myself I can only say that my advise is the following.

Buy to be buried in. By which I mean if you plan to spend your twilight years in a place with sunshine and sensible drinking laws then buying your home there as soon as possible makes sense. I have a home on an Adriatic island and one day intend to leave the mainland for ever, knowing that I aint ever coming back. So its worth the hassle.

But in terms of investment, well stick to places in which you not only understand the verbal language but also the body language. I like to think of the property business as being like playing poker in that if you cannot tell who the idiot in the game is then its probably you.

dee1269 04 Sep 2008, 10:55am

Very interesting article and comments. We went to one of those free investment seminars a few years back and since then have been bombarded with the opportunity to buy abroad. Cyprus, then Bulgaria was touted as the next hot thing. Having dipped our feet in the water and bought two properties in the UK to let, I discovered first hand what a hassle renting out is (though both properties did appreciate considerably). I could not see how we could deal with any tenancy or maintenace issues with properties abroad. Management companies - would not trust them. Plus I did not like the reliance on cheap airlines maintaining their route nor the fact that I would be exposed to fluctuating currency exchange rates.

I am now very glad I stuck to my guns and did not buy abroad. Whilst there were initial stories of success, where are they now?

magicblonde 04 Sep 2008, 10:58am

Harvey Jones is mixing lifestyle purchase decisions with investment. Also, whenever you hear people making sweeping generalisations you know they don't know what they're talking about. Just as in the UK there are still places where prices are rising - and they could be one street away from somewhere that they are dropping - so to say that all property purchases abroad are doomed is ridiculous.
The World Bank has recently tipped the Caribbean as one of the top places in the world in which to invest, and it's always proved to be recession-proof. Now I guess we'll see some more sweeping statements about hurricane risks - but there are many islands there which have never been hit and part of your research would be to investigate this.
In fact, it's always about research. In hard times, smart money heads for solid investments in already established markets. Think - if you haven't heard of the place and you would never have thought of holidaying there - there is no established market, is there?
Hands up - who always knew Bulgaria was a desired holiday/honeymoon/wedding destination? OK, hands up who always knew Caribbean islands were? Proves my point.
And BTW, I think now is a great time to be buying rental property in the UK, especially with even more housing shortages to come since building has slowed down - I know, I benefited last time this happened. Getting the dosh to invest is the sole challenge.
More better researched articles, less sweeping generalisation and less reliance on doom & gloom please!

Chongq 04 Sep 2008, 11:08am

We have been very happy with USA (see www.mycallawassieisland.com) for a wonderful south Carolina Island at at fair price and now with market bottom prices and a strengthening dollar. Initially we were surprised by weak dollar but all is well now as we bought at $1.87 and anyway this is a fun place with ourstyanding beauty, tranquility and golf(if required). Recommended for those with $300 - 600000 to spend on a second home with or without some rental intentions. good luck

joesop90 04 Sep 2008, 11:17am

By Harvey Jones

We never get enough info about the writer. Is the writer male or female? How old is the writer? Does he / she have a family ? Children? young / old ?
Knowing the answer to these questions might help in finding out what the writer IS NOT TELLING YOU !!

WindyMillers 04 Sep 2008, 11:25am

Location is everything. We bought a property offplan in the French Alps in 2004 with a 70% mortgage. Capital growth has been excellent, even better now if you factor in weak sterling. Rentals have been much better than expected too, with full winter and summer seasons this year, and much of Winter 09 booked too. We are already covering our mortgage costs, even though we didn't anticipate doing this until Year 4 (this is Year 2). Our property is in a smaller resort so rentals are cheaper than elsewhere, so I think we may be benefitting from ardent skiiers downgrading from Val D'Isere type places. We have furnished our flat with new stuff, not cast-offs from home; we also look after our customers, so repeat business has really helped. My advice is be realistic about rental income, do lots of research and view prices with caution. France remains a good bet because prices in general have not risen at anything like the rate in the UK, so falls are consequently smaller. Finally, choose your location very carefully, but in a place you like visiting too. You don't have to go there for all your holidays (in fact you can rent it out more if you don't), but it helps if you actually like the area!

hungary 04 Sep 2008, 11:28am

We bought in Hungary; sun, friendly people,thermal baths, beautiful scenery, cheap, good food (in the right places), can drive there over 2 days, in the EU, but outside the Eurozone. Aim to retire there. No regrets yet. Researched it for a year, got brilliant solicitor, estate agent and translator there. All very stress-free. Been there 5 times this year.

bestthingsince 04 Sep 2008, 11:28am

Some crazy comments from Mr Jones, like the global property meltdown - what's that? Never heard of it.

Your article is confused. I would have thought that you would be writing about investing in property to make money, not concerning yourself with a lifestyle purchase - why not leave that to companies who specialise in selling lifestyle property?

And just for the record, places like Northern Cyprus are just starting their tourist industry on the back of watching the Greeks do very well for 15 years in the south. Property costs around a third of that in the south so common sense tells you that the economists might just be right when they say that property prices in Northern Cyprus look set to double in just 3 years.

Land grab is not an issue if you know where to look and deeds can be obtained from the Turkish Land Registry. Indeed, many existing investors from Southern Cyprus are now, quite rightly, looking to the north to make substantial returns.

So come on Mr Jones, stop the pessimism, do your homework, talk to people like myself that have links with foreign governments and actively help to drive tourism and investment property markets forward. Not all of us property companies are the same you know!

plumbdude 04 Sep 2008, 11:47am

we have a property in the Florida USA and are very happy with it, the market is still dropping in Florida but not as fast as it was, and I feel we got a bargin on the resale property we bought, the dollar was $ 1.98 to the £ and I think it will drop further to a around the $ 1.50 ish mark which gives us a return on the exchange rate if we sell for the same price less cost's
but we did not buy the property to make vast profits we bought it as a family holiday home

MarkCT 04 Sep 2008, 12:22pm

Many interesting comments in these posts. I live in South Africa and would recommend it highly for investment and lifestyle choices, but of course this is purely subjective !
At this stage in my life I am thinking of returning to Europe - somewhere. Anywhere with a Mediterranean climate appeals, of course, but I have also developed a fascination and love for Hungary. My very rudimentary research so far indicates very reasonable prices in many parts of the country, although one can expect prices to rise over time. Hungary, if you would be willing to offer me any advice, suggestions, or indeed contacts in your part of the world, all would be greatly appreciated. You can emai1 to mark dot capetown at gmail dot com. Thank you !

allnewmoroco 04 Sep 2008, 1:17pm

its a very easy article to write based on not actually buying anything abroad i bought in France in 1999 and Morocco in 2005 the French place has gone up significantly and can sell to local market which is the key again in Morocco got in very early and prices have doubled with local people buying
if you silly dont do your research and belive others and simple cant really afford it you get burned like any other investment otherwise their is still value out their

SeeSense 04 Sep 2008, 1:42pm

Fortunately for some, France did not jump on the sub-prime bandwagon and since mortgages are only given to those with the ability to afford them, the market remains reasonably steady.
Since the increase of the euro against the pound, the property values for those already committed has increased, but bargains can still be found as estate agents are appearing to give special offers on some properties. In fact, all they are doing is bringing the value back down to what it would have been if the pound hadn't weakened and the euro strengthened.
Many parts of France will also still be accessible to Brits willing to make use of the excellent rail system, even if the smaller airlines disappear. The area between Biarritz and Pau is a particularly good location having access to 4 airports, Pau - all year access to Lourdes and ski slopes in winter, Biarritz, Bordeaux on west coast and Toulouse to the east. It also has links to the TGV fast train systems. Location and common sense are everything now, so if anyone is wanting a more stable property area, this may be an area worth investigating.
Do think twice about areas which are not already well established and/or can be caught up in the subprime crash and which do not have good alternative means of travel.

douglasbuchanan 04 Sep 2008, 1:58pm

My experience from owning foreign property (but no longer) is that it is only a good idea if you are going to live there a long time. Most places have lots of property to rent. Otherwise you are going to make a lot of money for the property seller and local middle men. Remember you know a lot more about your home market than one overseas and should be even more careful about investing.

McLeodC 04 Sep 2008, 2:12pm

People should have foreseen that the availability of cheap air travel was inevitably just a temporary blip. Properties may still find a market where there is local demand for holiday homes, e.g. in France, but realistically, who is going to spend a fortune flying to a resort in some remote patch of desert?
Indeed, with rising petrol costs, can we expect to see a similar fall in demand for holiday homes in less accessible parts of the UK, such as the north-west Highlands & Islands? Locals would be delighted if it allowed them to get on the property ladder.

yeaheyeknow 04 Sep 2008, 2:44pm

Of course, caution should be taken in any large investment, such as a property. I have made several purchases abroad, primarily in Brazil. All of my investments have gone up by 3 or 4 times in value. Brazil is an emerging market with huge tourist growth potential, especially the north, the undeveloped beaches are amazing.
I'm still investing, whilst the majority of the population are battening down the hatches, and hibernating whilst their forecoming doom passes by, thank you this has reduced the competition, I can quite calmly pick and choose the best opportunities now.

cjabingham 04 Sep 2008, 6:54pm

I agree with Coutances. Do you live in Coutances en Bretagne n'est-ce pas?!

mahdave 04 Sep 2008, 7:54pm

I am on the same wave length as Time Value but for me, besides a bankrupt country where hard earned money is sucked out by 11 Downing Street to feed new comers and the lazy, I would prefer to go before I meet the maker and bequith my money via IHT.I know, if I stay my rightful pension will not keep pace with inflation and I will be eating up my savings.

hakerite 04 Sep 2008, 9:07pm

Great postings and very informative for the most part.

I've been looking to buy in New York and Florida, for about 18 months, mostly as investment. I have a reasonable portfolio in the UK and I use a simple formula which must be adhered to: Gross income must achieve 1% per month of purchase price. If it doesn't then walk away.

There is no way of accurately predicting currency fluctuations so that in itself is a gamble. What is a certainty is you cannot be a part time property investor and make decent returns - It's hard enough for the professional.

Happy viewings.

Coutances 04 Sep 2008, 9:26pm

Near Coutances - dept 50 - Manche. Eveyone travels through and not many stay - good.
TB

natouille 04 Sep 2008, 9:33pm

Hi,
I have to agree with Coutances. I have bought my property in south of France for equivalent of 34,000£ in. It is now valued at 90,000£. The property is rented in July and August. The rest of the time, it is reserved for our own benefit. Since last year, there has been a slow down in holiday lets, economy and weather have been partialy responsible. Nevertheless, I have rented as I wanted. Regarding the sale value, my property is desirable and I can sell tomorrow as there is a shortage of such properties in the area. So, everything is down to location. My property is located in an area frequented mainly by French families and pensioners.
My advice when buying abroad is to go for the safe option (Local market), it is may be not the most profitable but the risk is reduced.
With credit cruch, people will have short breaks and likely to be in the UK. If you think like that for foreign market in foreign country, you may reduce the risk. I may be wrong, but it is working for me.
The pound may weaken a lot more to Euro or other currency. So contingency plan are a must.

As for the crisis, after the mortgage crisis, soon will be credit cards, employment .... I guess it could be 10 years before we see the sunshine. Worst is to come.

Spainsokay 05 Sep 2008, 5:03am

Last year we bought a small terrace house in a beautiful town in inland Spain, working from a very tight tick-list of what we wanted and what level of risk we were prepared to take. Very reasonable property prices, very Spanish, friendly people and a cheap place to stay. We used local agents, local English speaking solicitor, local builder. Of course there have been a couple of bumps along the way - but all in all a relatively smooth trip and a journey worth taking. By the end of the year we will have been 5 times, there are still plenty of cheap flights. We are a family of 5 and have spent £4,000 less this year on holidays than previous years. According to a local estate agent friend the property is worth double what we have spent on it. I'm sure in this climate it wouldn't be an easy sell, but it's not what we intended to do anyway. We intend to hang on to it, spend cheap family holidays under a blue sky and wait for everything to pick up again. We feel it is a sound investment both in terms of future property value and the fact that we can look forward to many family holidays / long weekends in a lovely corner of the world at a fraction of what we have spent on previous years holidays.

teepeeseller 05 Sep 2008, 12:37pm

A pretty emotive original post and a few emotive answers.
First let me make this clear to any reading this as I do no like misunderstandings. I am a broker and sell foreign properties in the Uk and before too long hope to be selling UK properties abroad (as the situation worsens here it presents some opportunities for those not sat around feeling sorry for themselves but willing to get up and do something about it)
To make a blanket statement that all foreign properties are a bad investment blah blah blah is as patently ridiculous as saying all gold bars are a bad investment - the ones with no hall mark may be but I'll take the hallmarked ones from anyone who has one to give away.
There are those at the snake oil end of the foreign real estate market who will tell you anything - and the more outlandish their claims the more people seem to fall for their nonsense.
Most of us at the sober and sombre end of the business knew damned well that there was likely to be a market reaction to the seemingly unstoppable rise in prices in this country. It happended in spectacular fashion, few of us foresaw just what would happen but what was happening was clearly unsustainable.
I got truly fed up reminding people that the worth of their house had not risen by 3 million per cent in the last week. In fact their house was worth nothing.
A house is only worth what the seller will accept for it and what the buyer is willing to part with for it - no more, no less and then only when the money has changed ownership! It sickened me to see normally bright people being convinced that their cottage in Little Changebury or the block of BTL's in the Greater Scamchester area has risen by 5% while they had been reading about what curtains to have.
Some made millions as a result of this particular South Sea Bubble and some still are. The greater majority will only have increased headaches.
Like all investments property (home or abroad) should be viewed as mid to long term. Anything less than 3 years only gets as far as my delete button.
The other factors and I am not aiming this at any of the countries outlined on this forum in particular, which need to concern you the potential investor (or victim if you ignore this) is......... Who do I sell to 5-25 years from now? Who do I rent to for the next 3 years? Who manages it for me? Is the guarantee in rental return already factored into the overpriced heap and all you're getting back is your own money?
If you can't get to it - who else can?
How stable is the government? Could a religious fanatic upset my retirement/holiday plans? Will be builder go the way of the dodo?
Is the developer waiting in the queue to catch the same plane back to Gatwick that you've just come in on? (Okay I admit - not likely - his is the learjet you had to wait at fifteen thousand feet for as he was getting permission to fly to the latest hotspot bordering the wonderful oasys at the foot of the dustoffsky mountains in the star lit Gobi desert. You'll see his ads next week for sure.
Enough of the lecture - Here are some sort of vague specifics which I preach/adhere to/market.
My favourite investment spot - Germany. Why?
They have been bouncing along the bottom for years and although it's possible it is almost impossible for prices to drop further. The infrastructure of the country surpasses any in the world.They are practically our neighbours - Noone has to rely on any particular airline to get them reasonably close to their holiday/retirment home or their investment. Stable economy/government/social standing/mentality.
Great beer, great cars, great footballers and great beer,Oh! I nearly forgot to point out GREAT BEER.
There are areas of the USA which I consider , imho are excellent parking lots for an investors hard earned. (Mid to long term again boys and girls.) Sicily has a better than middling chance of putting a smile on faces also. I am watching some of the N African states with interest - there are very genuine people who are attempting to drag their nations into the 21st century and live in harmony with Europe - we'll see. If I were a gambler (and I'm not) I just might be tempted with some of the developments I've seen there. I think some parts of Brazil offer spectacular opportunities but the distance means it will only ever be peripheral interest from my company.
Bulgaria - I apologize on behalf of the sharks who have besmirched this wonderful business with their antics there.
The Costas - generally as above although if all you want to do is to find a reasonably priced retirement home then it is still a happy hunting ground.
Egypt - not convinced it is sustainable, Dubai - likewise. Romanian coast - not a penny of mine will sun itself there though the cities for purely investment purposes may be worth a second glance. Portugal - pick the right spot and you will be a happy bunny.
I could go on but I have no wish to bore you any more than I have already run the risk of doing so.

dowantescape 05 Sep 2008, 2:07pm

I found this forum very interesting.Its quite a while Im looking,still keep looking to buy a traditional riad in Morocco in the city of Marrakech. The property would need to be renovated and eventually used as guest-house business, therefore I would mainly live there. But they are very expensive considering is a non-european destination and Im afraid of making mistakes.
My partner advices me to be very cautious as the global economy is at present time and to keep my money in the bank. Also it believes that if I wait further prices will eventually go down also there in Morocco.
What shall I do?
What would you advice - as you all more expert than myself. Especially I'd like an opinion from: jamesinone who
wrote 'ignoranceis dangerous' on the Sept4 and from: carIII - bestthingsince or also from teepeeseller.
Thanks to whoever will reply to my message!

Rayoz 08 Sep 2008, 9:26am

I feel we Brits want to make a quick pound without risk. I bought a property in Bulgaria 4 years ago, spent the first year dealing wuth Bulgarian builders [ a complete nightmare] and put it on the market to resell, result it is still up for sale. No Brits, Irish or Germans buying in BG at present. Moral behind this tale.... if there is a big buck to be made it is always on the end of a big risk. I will probably bearly get my money back, a couple more trips to BG and I am loosing money, but had it have worked properly [as was carefully planned] I would have got my money back 6 fold in 3 months. Big gambles = big losses. No good crying about it.

robinbigmore 08 Sep 2008, 10:29am

Best article I have read from the fool for a long time well done Harvey!
Better still was all the relevant comments, the best advise I can glean from comments is if you intend to live overseas, by all means buy in the country of your choice, as far as investing in a country through property you do not live in! ouch, you are at the whims and graces of agents, chancers,tradesmen and ?
I myself live in the fsu (former soviet union (Ukraine)) and stand a chance of controlling how much I will be stolen from. If you live overseas from your proposed purchase "BEWARE"
My ramblings, hope I've not bored too many and a good read.

teepeeseller 10 Sep 2008, 8:17am

Robinbigmore - excellent post. I cannot wholeheartedly agree will everything however.
Harvey's item is poorly researched bordering on piffle and doom merchant nonsense.

Your comment on living and investing in the same country should not be hooted down and is generally absolutely sound advice.

Most would-be investors (I don't include the lifestyle investors here - they have different motives for purchasing elsewhere in the world)looked abroad because they could no longer afford to invest in their home country (blighty). Even with the current drop the market is way overpriced. If I could purchase a block of flats here for the price of an average house in Germany I would of course be putting my faith in the UK.
The simple fact is I can purchase in Germany with a sitting tennant - and they tend to stay put if you treat them fairly. I have a management team who have never let me down and I can reach those properties faster than I can get to most areas of the UK.
I have investments in several areas of the USA and apart from the travel time they have been and continue to be excellent value for money. My northern France properties fall into the same category as the German ones (although this area is now too pricey when compared to Germany).
I have building land on Sicily which will sit in my land bank for a long time to come.
The only time I have ever come unstuck in this field is when I thought I was cleverer than my trusted local adviser - expensive mistake and one he never loses an opportunity to remind me of (I will never repeat this grave error of judgement).
LOCAL ADVICE IS ALL IMPORTANT - Yes I'm shouting very loudly about that one.

Dowantescape - I am not the one to advise you on N Africa - I am aware of what is happening along that coast am watching it expectantly.
The Kings of Morocco and Tunisia are trying to drag their countries into the modern world, however, I am not convinced they have total support in their own realms. We have witnessed far too often how one religious crazy can upset the apple cart and bring it all to a shuddering halt. I will gladly run the risk of losing out on the millions some will make by jumping in now. I think this risk is balanced out by the possibility of losing millions if the aforementioned religious crazy turns my lovely villa into a donkey stall for the local market traders.
If you are going over for lifestyle purposes I guess there are different factors involved but the risk does not diminish.
I'll wait for the market to mature - take a far smaller profit, be content with that and sleep easier as a result.
It all comes down to your attitude to risk - if you cannot afford to lose the money and shrug your shoulders and smile about whilst doing so then do not invest there.
If the risk gives you a buzz - well good luck. But you will not find me in the next seat to you on the plane (if there are still any planes going there)Re-read Robinbigmore's post and factor in the good advice he's offering.
Europe still has investment opportunities. They will continue to be the mainstay of my investment efforts. Now I guess it's down to who you wish to listen to.
The broker/agent/developer offering 100% return by next y